Samir Kaji’s Post

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CEO @ Allocate | MBA, Venture Capital, Finance

The Adverse Selection effect in VC is a problem. Why am I seeing this deal? This is a question that family offices and individuals should always ask when they are sent VC dealflow Why? Well, adverse selection is a big risk in venture capital investing. As most know, the asset class has the highest dispersion of returns of any asset class. The difference between top quartile and bottom quartile has ranged from a difference of 15%-30% IRR over the last two decades. The “problem” is that VC still is still primarily insular. The best opportunities are still shopped in the circles of insiders (of course exceptions remain, and it’s dangerous to use absolutes, but it’s generally true). The firms and LPs that see the the highest quality deals consistently put in significant effort to ensure this. The problem that I’ve seen over the last 12 years working within HNW/FO circles, is that, especially with those that don’t have dedicated teams, strong networks, or an emphasis on VC, is that the quality of deal flow is nowhere near where necessary to get top quartile results consistently (w/o massive amounts of luck). During times like ZIRP where everything is working, VC may seem easy, but it in truth it's an incredibly difficult business to win. Quality deal flow, diligence, access, and proper portfolio construction are key to success. I can’t begin to count how many emails have been forwarded to me by FO/HNW about a direct deal SPV or a Fund opportunity that are anxiety inducing, and unfortunately there are many people that look to take advantage of investors. Some red flags to look out for: - Promises returns of (Insert some crazy number) - This person went to (Insert Ivy League school) and worked at (company), and therefore they are great.  - A bunch of logos/name dropping. I just received an email from someone that say “I have a hot opportunity with fund x, that’s backed by (names a bunch of individuals with big names” or Firm x has invested previously in (brand name companies). But when looking under the hood, they put in 10K in an angelist SPV or some secondary.  - Outlandish claims. “Firm performance is in the top 1% of all funds, and is looking for a [10x] return, and has proprietary deal flow.  - Rush to move quickly. “Need to get in quickly as its  getting over subscribed” Crazy fees. I just had a HNW send me a deal where the person was charging 2/20 for an SPV into another fund(!) - Generic charts of how VC outperforms other assets classes. In 2022-2023, I saw a bit less as many of these players started to retreat, but with the rise of AI and the public markets bouncing back, I’m seeing more of this. Getting quality deal flow in VC requires time. Time to build networks, time to diligence, and time to understand the asset class. It’s hard, and expectations should be tempered. Most importantly, be aware of the adverse selection effect. 

Dave McClure

Founder: Practical Venture Capital, 500 Startups

2w

perhaps true for later-stage deals (where customers and revenue metrics are more obvious), but not really true for early-stage deals — lots of people *think* they know whether early-stage deals are good/great, but very often they are wrong. so as an outsider, you might get access to lots of early-stage deals that aren’t “hot”, but they may still be great opportunities. given that most early-stage bets are wrong, and even great founders still fail a lot, it always surprises me that VCs think they “know” which deals are the best in the beginning. also true at the fund level, and many early-stage / emerging managers can turn out to be great VCs, but their apparent pedigree and institutional track record is still limited or nascent. in summary: you SHOULD be skeptical of why you are seeing later-stage deals, but it’s not always the case that the same skepticism is valid for early-stage — we are all stll guessing what will actually work, and often “hot” early-stage deals are just more expensive entry valuation with similar risk.

Excellent analysis, Samir. I would add that the deals considered within the "circle of insiders" often have inflated valuations due to their various nuances, creating a FOMO effect. Most VCs still consider using their "network" to access deals as their strenght. This can be considered by GP's as inadequate effort for investments. The recent Super Return event in Berlin highlighted two clear trends in LPs' evaluation of GPs: experience and specialization. LPs should be asking GPs about the effort they put into each investment. A recent HBR survey found that for every 100 shortlisted proposals, there are 28 management meetings, 4.8 due diligence processes, and 1.7 term sheets issued, resulting in 1 investment. To shortlist 100 proposals, at least 250 need to be received. GPs should demonstrate this effort to LPs rather than relying on their "network." Successful VCs follow this process methodically, diligently, and efficiently, often using technology. The term "Adverse Selection" aptly describes the inadequacy of most VCs who rely solely on networks, resulting in below-average performance. The top quartile get it, others need to shape up.

Matt Wilson, MBA

Founder & Managing Director @ Allied.vc | Entrepreneur turned investor

2w

Very well said. There are no shortcuts. Quality takes time & effort.

Shruti Shah

Partner at Symphonic Capital

4d

This is spot on: “Getting quality deal flow in VC requires time. Time to build networks, time to diligence, and time to understand the asset class. It’s hard, and expectations should be tempered. Most importantly, be aware of the adverse selection effect.” The best companies are much more than the founders pedigree and who else is invested in the company. Finding good deals as a VC requires curiosity, open mindedness, and time and effort to learn about a team and opportunity.

Mark Donnigan

Virtual CMO and Go-to-Market Builder for Tech Startups

2w

- **Main Point:** Quality deal flow in venture capital is vital for success, requiring dedicated time to build networks and conduct thorough diligence. Quick, unvetted opportunities often signal adverse selection risk. References: Startup veterans like Paul Graham emphasize the importance of network-building and strategic thinking for sustained success. - **Alternative Perspective:** Even with significant effort, luck plays a role in venture success. Not all good deals are limited to insiders; occasionally, hidden gems emerge from less-established networks. Reference: Peter Thiel suggests looking for contrarian opportunities that others might overlook, indicating that not all exceptional deals follow the mainstream path.

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ai Jesse Dawson ↙️

Consumer Data Privacy expert in European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act ( EU AIA ) & US Algorithmic Accountability Act 2022 ( US AAA ) EX NCR & SAIC

2w

Raising Money Costs a Lot The lure of #money leads founders to grossly underestimate the time, effort, and creative energy required to get the cash in the bank. This is perhaps the least appreciated aspect of raising money. In #emerging companies, during the fund-raising cycle, founders commonly devote as much as half their time and most of their creative energy trying to raise outside capital. We have seen founders drop nearly everything else they were working on to find potential money sources and tell their story. The process is stressful and can drag on for months as interested investors engage in "due diligence" examinations of the founder and the proposed #business. Getting a yes can easily take 24-72 months; a no can take up to a 2-5 years. All the while, the emotional and physical drain leaves. Plus who is paying the founders rent? VCs are so cheap nowadays they don’t t even want to pay for lunch or the coffee when meeting up. Founders cant totally depend on friends and family for this long while cost of living cost are through the roof...

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100% this. When the tide goes out, you see who's been swimming naked.

Hoang LeHuy

New Finance Capital LLC

2w

indeed, sometimes it seems a business among insiders, and outsiders may find difficult to break into some closed circles or network to get access to top dealflow (top being ex-ante assessement). So there is also sentiment of winner curse : outsider get access to deals that maybe are not the best-rated and best-performing (ex-post) ….

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Madhurika .

IB Professional | Talks about Business, Startups, Valuations and Fundraising Ecosystem (VC/PE/IB)

2w

Building networks, diligent research, and managing expectations are indeed crucial in this complex venture capital landscape. ✅

Justinas Milašauskas

Family Office | Investment Management

2w

Very well said, Samir. Your posts are always to the point. For us at Willgrow being far from natural hubs of Venture we treat every inbound deal as a weak quality signal. However, in order to generate high quality deal-flow we need to hustle 3x harder.

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