Rohit Srivastava’s Post

Even after the recent ECB rate cut, German bond yields have not broken the rising channel for wave B. This is a corrective overlapping move, so it will break soon. At that point, wave C down is in force, and German yields can drop to 1.5% or lower in the coming months. https://buff.ly/45luZNa #ECB #GermanBonds #BondYields #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #InterestRates #FinancialMarkets #BondMarket

ECB holds its policy rate at 4% but signals it is ready to begin cutting rates US March PPI on tap at 8:30am 🕣 “It’s an interesting policy statement in which the ECB is preparing the ground for a rate cut. It says incoming information have broadly confirmed their inflation outlook. And as Fergal notes, here’s the most important line: ‘If the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.’” #ecb #eurozoneeconomy #euroeconomy #inflation #markets #eurozone #softlanding #cpi #ppi #wholsesaleinflation

ING- Rates Spark: Diverging ECB views increases uncertainty Translation - No one has any clue. The US is the world leader so everything hinges on the US. ECB comments on the path beyond June are become more dispersed, with the hawks warning it is premature to discuss cuts beyond June, while some doves now flag more than 100bp of cuts as a possibility. To us this implies the outlook beyond June is less anchored overall, meaning it could be more prone to correct higher near-term if US rates push on upwards.

In this edition of the Global Macro Strategist, we investigate the implications of shipping disruptions for the world economy and markets. We find that the likelihood of inflation ‘surprises’ has increased, creating investment opportunities... Let me know if you want a copy!

📢 Current Update on Yesterday's 0.25% ECB Rate Cut 📉 The markets were hardly impressed and showed no change. Bond yields are expected to decline by year-end, which will positively impact prices. 📈 We favor longer maturities on bonds which are becoming increasingly attractive in a rate-cutting scenario. 📊🔍 Uncertainties are still the high energy costs and geopolitical risks. ⚡🌍 Alpique Swiss Wealth Partners are always available for a deeper market update and suggestions. Feel free to reach out! 📞📧 #MarketUpdate #ECB #InterestRates #BondMarket #Investing #Finance #Economy #WealthManagement

#eurusd : manages to hold onto 1.0760 - momentum is neutral for both sides; We have the ECB economic bulletin today & 2 ECB speakers; support @ 1.0760 - 1.0713; Sell on rise till 1.0885 breaks- that's far away as of now;

ECB bets are paying off big!! More left in the tank? Last month, we recommended going short on EZ short-term rates via put options on 3M EURIBOR futures. We argued that elevated service inflation and dissent among Governing Council members meant that the bond market was excessively optimistic around the speed and magnitude of ECB rate cuts. The recent 300%+ spike in container freight rates to Europe could potentially delay ECB cuts even further.   As expected, investors have pushed back their expectations of imminent ECB cuts amid fears of re-accelerating inflation, resulting in a P&L of 144%!! With markets pricing in four rate cuts by December, we continue to favor short positions on ECB rates (but have raised the trailing stop loss to lock-in profits). #euribor #futures #ecb #europe #inflation #containers #freightrates #rates #monetarypolicy #alpha #investing #ez #eurozone #ratecuts #sentiment Numera Analytics CNBC MarketWatch Reuters

QE and asset prices - German edition. There seems to be a link, perhaps unsurprisingly, between the ECB's QE/QT and German property prices. Interesting charts here: https://lnkd.in/efmjuayB

As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged. There will be lots of interest in how President Lagarde deals in her upcoming press conference with the peak rate expectation in markets -- an expectation that has not responded much, at least as yet, to a rather hawkish tone in the written statement indicating unchanged policy rates. #economy #markets #ecb

The yield, or interest rate, on 30-year US government bonds, known as Treasuries, hit 5 % for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday, while the German 10-year benchmark rate climbed to 3% a level unseen since 2011. A sell-off in global bond markets gathered pace, driving yields to the highest level in more than a decade as traders brace for an extended period of tight monetary policy. Let’s see how it’s affecting different sectors of the finance world. #BondYield #PrivateEquity #Banks #Learning