Robert Evan Ellis’ Post

A comprehensive and timely analysis. “China is right: the international system does need reform. But the foundations for that reform are best found in the openness, transparency, rule of law, and official accountability that are the hallmarks of the world’s market democracies. The global innovation and creativity necessary to solve the world’s challenges thrive best in open societies. Transparency, the rule of law, and official accountability are the foundation of healthy, sustained global economic growth. And the current system of alliances, although insufficient to ensure global peace and security, has helped prevent war from breaking out among the world’s great powers for more than 70 years. China has not yet managed to convince a majority of the planet’s people that its intentions and capabilities are the ones needed to shape the twenty-first century. But it is up to the United States and its allies and partners to create an affirmative and compelling alternative.”

It's been a busy week of writing, but Hudson Institute Japan Chair Ken Weinstein and I discuss the key takeaways from Kishida's visit, including his address to Congress today. Big picture: Japan wants the American public to know that it will share the burdens of supporting a secure and prosperous international order based on the rule of law. US-JPN cooperation will expand to: working with like-minded partners and allies, supporting greater defense interoperability and co-production; integrating economic security, trade, and technology; and engaging all of America. It's an ambitious program, but made possible by all the work Japan has done in the past decade-plus.

My latest piece, on the relations between the #Netherlands and #Taiwan, is now online at the Taiwan Insight blog of the UoN Taiwan Studies Programme. I explain the long-standing historical connections, the surprising security link, and the deep economy ties.

New ❗ paper out on Europe-Taiwan relations by Philippe Le Corre, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. In his paper, The “Rebirth” of Europe-Taiwan Relations: Explaining Europe’s New Balance Between Beijing and Taipei, Le Corre examines past and present European perceptions of Taiwan, and how the island’s future has become an important economic and diplomatic issue for the EU, its member-states, and the United Kingdom. Check it out: https://bit.ly/48sFE9y

The EU is not a security actor in east Asia – however, it has some formidable and unique – soft power assets that could be leveraged to promote dialogue and understanding between China and Taiwan, as Taiwan inaugurates its new president today

Focus on Taiwan:- As Russia and China moves on recognizing countries just to show their power. America and the west should move to recognize Taiwan as an independent country. (Part 1) By Ugo Ikeji The issue of recognizing Taiwan as an independent country is highly complex and involves significant geopolitical considerations.

“Following its thousand-year-old tradition, Beijing is not anxious to commit itself to this or that partner which would require fixed obligations, and offers the usual propaganda-type proclamations that the relationship is conditional and pragmatic. The absence of legally fixed obligations provides Beijing with flexibility in choosing partners and it does so based on utility without damaging its reputation too much. Beijing also plans for decades and possibly generations, prioritising stability, and does not expect immediate gratification as is the case with Washington… For thousands of years of its history, China was a self-centred and even xenophobic empire with limited interest in those who were not close to its border. The Great Wall was not just a defensive construction. It was also a civilisational construction which separated the Middle Kingdom from the rest of the world. Now, however, knowing its strength and feeling disdain for the old hegemon (the US), Beijing has entered what was until recently considered the exclusive domain of the US — Europe. While the economic incentive is a clear carrot in China/Europe reproachments, it is not of paramount importance. The major overall goal of China’s Europe engagement is geopolitical…”

If President Biden and President Xi were to engage in another call or meeting, several expectations could arise from such an interaction. Notably, the absence of a focus on human rights issues in recent discussions is significant and raises concerns. Despite this, there are several potential areas where the two leaders may focus their discussion: 1. **Geopolitical Issues**: Both leaders may address key geopolitical issues, such as trade relations, regional security, and global health. They could discuss the impacts of their policies on each other's nations and the world, and potentially explore areas of cooperation, notwithstanding the ongoing tensions. 2. **Economic Relations**: Given the complex nature of economic ties between the United States and China, both leaders may seek to address trade-related concerns, promote fair trade practices, and explore opportunities for economic cooperation, despite existing trade tensions. 3. **Technology and Innovation**: Discussions on technology policies, global standards, and competition in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G technology, and cybersecurity might be on the agenda. Both leaders may aim to understand each other's positions on technology and innovation and explore potential areas for collaboration or competition in this rapidly evolving field. 4. **Climate Change and Environmental Cooperation**: With the global focus on climate change and environmental challenges, there could be discussions on climate policies, environmental cooperation, and potential collaboration in addressing climate-related issues, particularly in the lead-up to major international climate conferences. Although these issues reflect significant global challenges and areas for potential cooperation, the subdued emphasis on human rights in recent discussions is a cause for concern. Human rights concerns, including those related to Xinjiang, Hong Kong, freedom of speech, and political freedoms, are vital to the U.S.-China relationship and to the global community. Consequently, it is important for such issues to be addressed in any meaningful diplomatic interaction between the two leaders. The absence of explicit human rights discussions in recent high-level meetings does not preclude the possibility of these issues being brought up in future engagements. Human rights concerns are critical and could be raised during future interactions, particularly given the increasing international attention and concerns over these matters. Ultimately, the outcomes of any future conversation or meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi will depend on a complex interplay of geopolitical developments, domestic political considerations, and the evolving dynamics of the U.S.-China relationship. It is important for both leaders to address a wide spectrum of issues, including human rights, to foster a relationship grounded in mutual respect and understanding.

Although I typically focus on U.S.-China relations, Wang Yi’s stops in Europe last week to establish China as a “staunch force for stability” — amid a hardening push to ‘derisk’ from China — piqued my interest. Klaus Larres and I write for the South China Morning Post SCMP that Beijing believes to have lost constructive engagement beyond a superficial level with the U.S. for good post-APEC. In order to secure new partners to become this source of stability in the world (and to realize its Global Security Initiative), the world is seeing a renewed ‘charm offensive’ for Europe. Read our commentary here: