Ray Dalio’s Post

📢 Attention business leaders! Mark your calendars for an exclusive Federal Legislative Update session with Tim Argenti and the Economic Vitality Committee. Join us for Coffee & Conversation as we delve into Congress's actions impacting businesses. Featuring Jennings Imel from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Don't miss out on this insightful event! ☕🇺🇸 🔗 More details here: https://loom.ly/DukEP4Y #LegislativeUpdate #BusinessLeaders #EconomicVitality

Essay #160 Who's running the country right now? Not Joe Biden. Some of my connections from my days in Washington will find this essay unsettling. But that's the thing with the truth -- it's uncomfortable. The people who are actually running the country aren't the people you elect. In theory, your wishes as a member of the electorate are supposed to be represented by elected officials on Capitol Hill. Those elected representatives craft policies that are then implemented by a large number of professional administrators. In practice, though, this isn't how representative democracy actually works. Washington -- and the bureaucracy that operates within in it -- is governed by its own interests. Those interests are shaped by special interests, informal institutions, and staying within an elite bubble. More importantly: the bureaucrats implementing policy are unelected and thus unaccountable. It doesn't matter what your political persuasion is, I think *most* of us agree the choices on this year's presidential ballot are less than stellar. And that's a problem. The individual you vote for likely isn't going to be the individual leading the country. Filling the void will be a cadre of unelected bureaucrats instead. You can read my full take here: https://lnkd.in/gtGHww7q

This is history in the making! Republican Kevin McCarthy has been removed as Speaker of the House of Representatives, marking the first time a House Speaker has been ousted in this manner. Here's what you need to know: 🔴 Why was Kevin McCarthy removed? McCarthy faced a rebellion within his own party, led by Florida congressman Matt Gaetz. The final straw was McCarthy's reliance on Democratic votes to pass a short-term spending deal, which some saw as a "secret side deal" with President Biden on Ukraine aid. 🔄 How will McCarthy be replaced? House members are on recess, using this time to discuss and decide on a new Speaker. The vote is scheduled for October 11, but finding a consensus candidate may take time, given the current party divisions. 🤔 Who could replace McCarthy as speaker? Names in the mix include Patrick McHenry of North Carolina (on an interim basis), Steve Scalise of Louisiana, and Tom Emmer of Minnesota. McCarthy himself has ruled out running again. 🔵 Why did Democrats vote to remove McCarthy? Some Democrats cited a lack of trust in McCarthy, stemming from his shifting stance on Donald Trump's role in the Capitol storming and other issues like Ukraine aid. 🏛️ Why does this matter? The Speaker plays a pivotal role in running the chamber and is second in line for the presidency. This upheaval leaves a leadership vacuum at a critical time for US politics. This unexpected turn of events has major implications for US governance and could further erode public trust in the political system. Stay tuned for more updates as the situation develops. 🗳️ #USPolitics #HouseSpeaker #KevinMcCarthy https://lnkd.in/g2FSwsTW For more.

📰 Breaking News! 🚨 Kevin McCarthy, the House Speaker, is making headlines with regards to a potential U.S. shutdown. 😱 Read all about it in this captivating article: #Shutdown #USPolitics In a recent opinion piece by The National News, it's revealed that Kevin McCarthy's actions have sparked intense debates and concerns among lawmakers. 🤔⚖️ The article delves deep into the implications of a possible shutdown and its impact on the country. 💔 Using state-of-the-art analysis, the author sheds light on the potential consequences of such a move, highlighting the tensions and divisions within the U.S. political landscape. 🔍💥 This news article is a must-read for anyone interested in understanding the current state of affairs in U.S. politics. 😮 Stay informed, stay engaged! 📚🤝 #KevinMcCarthy #USshutdown #HouseSpeaker #PoliticalTensions #StayInformed https://lnkd.in/duS23ueV

The #FutureCaucus was shared as a solution for fixing Congress in an op-ed filed today in The Hill. "Lost in the partisan mudslinging is the fact that the Constitution sets up a system that essentially requires bipartisanship to achieve policy change. This is particularly true in the case of big, systemic reforms that survive from one administration to the next... This approach to problem solving is at the heart of the National Governors Association’s Disagree Better initiative. The effort doesn’t promote “being nicer to each other” but rather urges policymakers to cut through conflict and find solutions. The recently relaunched congressional Civility Caucus set a similar goal of encouraging members to work together for the good of their constituents. The newly formed bipartisan Fix Congress Caucus has set its sights on improving how Congress works for the American people. And perhaps most heartening are the young lawmakers in 31 states who have formed bipartisan “Future Caucuses” for the purpose of collaborating on the issues facing future generations." https://lnkd.in/dWpiKzNC

The Democratic insiders’ talking point about Biden’s debate performance (“he had a bad night / a cold”) is deeply symptomatic of everything that has gone wrong in partisan politics and the threat which the ill-health of political parties poses to democratic governance. Over decades, Joe Biden has earned public support and respect. This is a moment for his family and closest friends to acknowledge and speak truth to him, to help him chart a well-deserved course of exiting the elective arena with that pool of admiration and appreciation intact. It is not a time to help him paper over the toll aging takes on all of us, and suffer the public humiliation which awaits. And it is a time for his partisan supporters to put the national interest over what they perceive to be their party’s interest. Political parties used to recognize they have a public responsibility - a duty - to recruit, screen, nurture, train and support leaders who can provide solid and substantive leadership to advance and serve their country's interests. In modern times, this notion of public service has been supplanted by private interest. Political parties now churn up candidates who are well-supported by narrow factions which constitute "the base", but who are basically unqualified to lead our countries (be that Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn, Liz Truss, Donald Trump, Joe Biden or a host of many others on today's landscape who could be named, not to unecessarily personalize this). Citizens clearly want better choices than parties are routinely offering them. Little wonder voters are disillusioned and chagrined, and no wonder democracies find themselves struggling to compete in today's world of rising authoritarianism. Our political parties have evolved into self-serving machines, preoccupied/satisfied with protecting their leaders, power, roles and perks, rather than continuously seeking out the best and brightest people and ideas to advance our national and individual well-being. There is really no other way to comprehend the spinners’ dangerous claim that Joe Biden is the best choice for President for four more years. Not for America, not for the world, and not even for Joe Biden.

🦉👁️🥝🇺🇸 Is the #USConstitution still fit for purpose? It’s an odd kind of #democracy where the winner of the most votes is denied victory, as Clinton and Al Gore discovered. It is alarming to see the #USSupremeCourt, a hallowed constitutional safety net, discredited by #corruption and #hardright #ideologues. An objective observer (or founding father), looking down from above, would surely conclude a revered yet antiquated system of government that pits a fading old-timer against an unhinged, vengeful crook for a position of unmatched executive power and leadership of the “free world” is not working well. Given all that is at stake, #Biden and #Trump should both stand down. That would electrify the decaying body politic. It would throw the contest wide open to fresh leaders, as urged last week by Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential candidate. It would be a life-giving shot in the arm for a country “stagnating under the death grip of the #gerontocracy,” in commentator Michelle Goldberg’s words. It is not going to happen, as things stand, but it really should. Like its two principal protagonists, democracy in #America is down on its creaking, aching knees – and that is doubly dangerous for Americans and the world. https://lnkd.in/gh3HQHuw The Observer: OPINION Simon Tisdall #unitedstates #uselection2024

"How did we get here, after all? What is it that transformed the presidency from an unassuming ‘‘chief magistrate’’ to the unholy and unnatural amalgam of genie, warlord, and shaman that it has become? How have we arrived at our current predicament, in which we regularly entrust our hopes and dreams—as well as the world’s most powerful military—to whichever professional office-seeker dissembles most convincingly on the campaign trail? What have we done to deserve this? Quite a lot, actually: We may not be happy with what presidential politics offers us, but we’re far from blameless. We demand a government that will solve all our problems but will also have the decency to leave us alone. We want a president who knows his place, but we also long for a leader who can transform crisis into opportunity, helping us realize our collective potential in a grand national crusade. We want what we cannot have, and as a result, we get what we do not like. H. L. Mencken described democracy as ‘‘the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.’’ When it comes to the presidency, Mencken’s aphorism needs qualification: American elites are at least as responsible as the ordinary citizen for what we’re getting ‘‘good and hard.’’ But Mencken was right to suggest that we’re largely to blame for our own predicament. When our scholars lionize presidents who break free from constitutional restraints, when our columnists and talking heads repeatedly call upon the ‘‘commander in chief’’ to dream great dreams and seek the power to achieve them—when voters look to the president for salvation from all problems great and small—it’s the sheerest hypocrisy for Americans to complain that the presidency has grown too big, too powerful, and too menacing."

How Autocracies Fall   By Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz   Excerpts from their article in the Washington Quarterly 2014 & edited to fit this post.   "Because autocrats can rarely be voted out of power, most find themselves exiting office in far less conventional ways.   Understanding how dictators tend to exit office is important for two reasons. First, by paying attention to how autocrats are likely to lose power political observers can better foresee the tactics that autocrats and their surrounding elites are likely to employ.   Second, the manner in which leaders exit office affects the political trajectory of the country once the leader has been deposed. There is a common assumption among political observers that when a longstanding autocrat falls, democracy will result. Only 20 percent of autocratic leader exits from 1950–2012 led to democracy.    While most dictators still exit office as a result of actions or decisions of regime insiders—including coups, term limits, resignations, or the consensus of regime insiders in a politburo or military junta— revolts now unseat a greater proportion of autocrats than coups, marking a pronounced rise in the importance of mass politics for the survival of dictators.    Mass overthrows tend to have far-reaching consequences when they do occur. Revolts are among the most likely mode of leader exit to sweep away not only the autocrat, but also the entire political regime and are more likely to result in democratization.    There are three general ways that autocrats leave office: actions and decisions of regime insiders, including coups, dictators forced out of office amid mass mobilization, including revolts and civil wars, and death from natural causes.   The departure of an authoritarian leader infrequently results in democracy. However, the increasing frequency of revolts relative to coups bodes well for democratization. When leaders are toppled by revolts, democracy follows almost 45 percent of the time.   Professor Erica Chenoweth and U.S. State Department strategic planner Maria Stephan, find that the ability of movements to attract widespread and diverse participation, develop strategies that allow them to maneuver around repression, and provoke defections, loyalty shifts, or disobedience among regime elites and/or security forces are key to a movement’s success. Professors Valerie Bunce and Sharon Wolchik highlight the importance of the opposition’s use of sophisticated, intricately planned, and historically unprecedented strategies to support public protests demanding a change in leadership.   Extent of violence that accompanies autocratic regime failure affects prospects for democratization.   Leaders who believe they are at risk of revolt are likely to respond in one of two ways: increase their repression of civil liberties, or increase provision of public goods reducing mass desire for change." So in short never let this happen to begin with.

Kevin McCarthy's Big Test : Uniting GOP to Avoid Shutdown As the nation stands on the brink of a potential government shutdown, all eyes are on Kevin McCarthy's leadership abilities. The House Speaker has deftly navigated a challenging political landscape, uniting a narrow Republican majority while balancing the demands of hard-right conservatives and more moderate members. From passing crucial legislation like the National Defense Authorization Act to striking unexpected compromises on the debt ceiling, McCarthy has proven his mettle. Now, facing his most formidable test yet, McCarthy must rally his party to pass 11 spending bills or avert crisis with a continuing resolution. The delicate dance between appeasing staunch conservatives and finding common ground for bipartisan compromise has never been more critical. Can McCarthy's strategic finesse bridge the gap and avert a government shutdown? The coming weeks will determine whether his leadership stands strong in the face of adversity. For more details, log on to USADNP.com or click on the link here: https://lnkd.in/dwm9E-zW #KevinMcCarthy #GOP #Congress #GrandOldParty #RepublicanParty #GovernmentShutdown #PoliticalTest #ChipRoy #CatholicUniversity #Joebiden #HouseSpeaker #WhiteHouse #MattGreen #HouseGOP #Texas #California #DemocraticParty #LeadershipTest #Unity #USADNP #dsparihar #NYCMedia #NYCNews #y2kdsp007 #gigsarena #politicalnews #viralnews #topnews #trendingnews #usnews #PresidentialElection