Raagulan Pathy’s Post

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The Stablecoin Guy | Building KAST

“Interest rate cuts & Stablecoins…” What happens when interest rates drop from 5.25% to 3%? Well… 1/ Stablecoin market cap should go up! Why? > People can’t be bothered off-ramping and seeking yield > Positive for crypto prices, and when Bitcoin/crypto goes up, more money comes into stablecoins 2/ Stablecoin issuer revenue goes down! Why? Even though stablecoin market cap grows, in the short term it’s hard to see it cover a 40% drop in interest income. USDT @$112B Revenue = $5.88B to $3.36B USDC @$33B Revenue = $1.73B to $0.99B Approx $530M to Coinbase, $460M to others 3/ USDT & USDC & USDe dominate Why? I can’t even count how many USD stablecoins are being launched, it’s crazy how many there are. But over time, most will give up. There’s a lot of fixed costs to run a stablecoin - legal, regulatory, compliance, tech, banking and more. And then to get traction, many are sharing 80% of revenue. If you do the maths, based on $10M/year fixed costs, 3% rates and 80% rev share for incentives. It’s not profitable to run a stablecoin, really below $2B market cap. The only 5 achieving this today, are USDT, USDC, FDUSD, DAI and USDe. 4/ In conclusion? Bullish! My personal belief is interest rates going down are very bullish for stablecoins, lots more money comes into the ecosystem. And then sticks around. But, the reduced revenue short term may lead to let’s say… “restructuring”. 5/ Raags, explain some of those numbers Explaining the USDC revenue split - a) Coinbase in Q1 filings publicly stated $197M in interest income b) Based on CoinMarketCap the average Q1 was about $28B for USDC. c) Adjusting to $33B, Coinbase is taking $928M a year if we extrapolate d) The extrapolated maths is approx 53.6% of USDC revenue to Coinbase, rest to others e) Then we adjust revenue down based on interest rates going from 5.25% to 3% f) Thus… Approx $530M to Coinbase, $460M to others Source: https://lnkd.in/ggbCR7xh “Interest earned on Coinbase USDC reserves was $197 million during the quarter, up 15% from the fourth quarter of 2023”

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