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French President Emmanuel Macron Calls Snap Elections Following EU Elections Debacle - https://lnkd.in/dTF8vZgJ - French President Emmanuel Macron Calls Snap Elections Following EU Elections Debacle In an unexpected move, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Sunday the dissolution of the National Assembly and the convening of early legislative elections, generating a political earthquake after the overwhelming defeat of his party against the extreme right in the parliamentary elections Europeo. La Macron’s decision, which comes three years before the end of his term and as France prepares to host the Olympic Games this summer, represents a risky gamble. In the European elections on Sunday, Marine Le Pen’s National Grouping (RN) won 31.5% of the vote, according to Ipsos projections, more than double the support received by Macron’s party. In an address to the nation, the French president claimed he could not ignore the warning of voters and announced that the elections for the National Assembly will be held on June 30, with a second round on July 7. “This is an essential moment for clarification,” Macron declared. “I have listened to your message, your concerns and I will not leave them unanswered… France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony.” Marine Le Pen’s Reaction The announcement was greeted enthusiastically by Marine Le Pen, whose party now has its best chances to date of seizing power in the upcoming parliamentary vote. “We are ready to take power if the French people trust us in the upcoming legislative elections,” Le Pen said. “We are ready to put the country back on its feet.” If Le Pen’s National Grouping achieves a surprising majority in the National Assembly, Macron would retain control over defense and foreign policy, but would lose the ability to set the domestic agenda, remaining the president who allowed the entry of the extreme right to power. A setback for Macron, the centre and the left The result of Sunday’s election means France, one of the EU’s founding members, will send the largest contingent of far-right Eurosceptic lawmakers among the bloc’s 27 members to Brussels. The National Grouping has traditionally shown good results in the European elections, topping the vote in 2014 and 2019. Her huge 15-point margin of victory on Sunday suggests that Le Pen’s party is at an all-time high and Macron’s camp is in a position of unprecedented weakness. This result marks a harsh rebuke of France’s Europhile president, who came to power in 2017 on the promise that French voters would “no longer have reasons to vote for extreme parties.” Macron had upped the ante during the campaign, warning that “Europe is deadly” and pointing to the threat to the continent from a resurgent far-right at D-Day commemorations. Political consequences The defeat is also a devastating blow for the young prime minister, Gabriel ...

💡 EU Elections 2024 – Four Takeaways from the German Elections: As is often the case during European Parliament elections, citizens across the continent used their vote as a de facto referendum on their national governments. This was also true in Germany, where a voter turnout of around 65% brought national issues like peacekeeping and migration to the EU level. Here are four key takeaways from the German elections: 1. Frustration with the Current Government All three parties in the current "traffic light" coalition (the Liberal FDP, the Social Democrats SPD, and the Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) lost ground compared to the 2019 election results. This confirms statistics of the past weeks that indicate public dissatisfaction with disagreements within the government. As a result, the upcoming budget negotiations are expected to be more challenging than ever. 2. Green Issues Lose Focus The Greens struggled as their core issue of climate protection was not a top priority for voters this time, unlike in 2019. Recent trends showed that peacekeeping and migration were now the main concerns. With a nearly 10% drop compared to 2019 (from 20.5% to 11.9%), the Greens will need to strike a thematic balance for the remainder of the election year. They must address socio-political demands to appeal to swing voters while continuing to advocate for climate protection to maintain their base. 3. Far-Right Surge Despite recent controversies, the far-right party AfD gained six more seats compared to 2019. Scandals included accusations of Chinese spying against an employee of top candidate Maximilian Krah and the use of SS slogans by Party Chairman Björn Höcke, which led to the party's exclusion from the far-right European party alliance Identity and Democracy. Despite these issues causing stagnation or decline in poll results in recent weeks, the AfD secured the second-highest number of seats after the centre-right CDU. This marks a significant shift to the right in Germany, which is likely to be repeated in upcoming state elections in Eastern German states like Saxony and Thuringia. 4. Mainstream Parties Losing Ground Although the CDU emerged victorious in the European elections, it did not benefit as much as expected from the poor mood in Germany. While it is now pressuring the coalition government, it has lost many votes to the AfD and the new left Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, BSW. This indicates that the party landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented, and mainstream parties are playing an ever-smaller role. This fragmentation will pose major challenges for the CDU, especially in the upcoming state elections. Curious to know more about the importance of the EU elections in Germany? Feel free to reach out! #EUelections2024 #EUpolitics #Europe Schuttelaar & Partners International

Empowered by a stunning triumph at the European elections, France’s far-right National Rally on Tuesday hit the national campaign trail with its star leader, Jordan Bardella, promising supporters “the largest possible majority” at the upcoming parliamentary vote. Opposition parties on the left and right have been scrambling to form alliances and field candidates in the snap national elections called by President Emmanuel Macron after his party suffered a crushing defeat by the far right in the European Parliament vote on Sunday. A win for the National Rally in the national elections could result in the French far right leading a government for the first time since World War II. EUROPEAN VOTERS REJECT SOCIALISM, FAR-LEFT POLICIES IN EU PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS: ‘POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE’ While sharp differences between parties remain on either side of the political spectrum, prominent figures calling for a united front appear to have one thing in common: They don’t want to cooperate with Macron. Despite their divisions, left-wing parties agreed late Monday to form an alliance that includes the Greens, the Socialists, the Communists and the far-left France Unbowed of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Leaders have not agreed on who will head the coalition nor on its program. In light of the European polls, politicians on the left are focused on closing ranks to prevent a win for the National Rally. For now, they have also vowed not to join forces with Macron’s centrists. In a joint statement, the alliance called on all forces on the left, including the influential labor unions, to unite behind a “new popular front” to form an “alternative to Emmanuel Macron and to fight against the racist project of the far right.” French far-right leader Marine Le Pen delivers a speech as Jordan Bardella, president of the French far-right National Rally, listens at the party election night headquarters after French President Emmanuel Macron announced he dissolved the National Assembly and calls new legislative election after defeat in EU vote, Sunday, June 9, 2024 in Paris. First projected results from France put far-right National Rally party well ahead in EU elections, according to French opinion poll institutes. (AP Photo/Lewis Joly) National Rally leader Marine Le Pen is working to consolidate power on the right ahead of the two-round elections on June 30 and July 7. Le Pen’s niece, Marion Maréchal, who won a seat in the European Parliament on Sunday as a member of the rival Reconquer! party of Éric Zemmour, on Monday visited National Rally headquarters in Paris to negotiate a far-right alliance. Family ties aside, Maréchal said Tuesday that Bardella informed her of a change of heart in the National Rally regarding a pact with the Reconquer! party. Bardella offered “a regrettable explanation against an agreement by saying that (Le Pen’s party) does not want to be associated directly or indirectly with Éric Zemmour,” Maréchal said

The European Election 2024 is over 🗳 and here are the 5️⃣ takeaways of the results by the Martens Centre's Tomi Huhtanen: 1️⃣ The European People's Party is the Largest Across Key EU Institutions. 2️⃣ Despite snap elections called in #France, the right-wing surge is not the main story. 3️⃣ Personalisation of Elections Matters. 4️⃣ The Final Composition of #Parliament Groups Remains Uncertain. 5️⃣ #Greens’ Constructiveness Will Be Now Tested. Read the full analysis below: 👉https://lnkd.in/eChZ5vWa #ThinkingTogether #FocusFuture #EUelections2024

My observations of the European election results: 1. Sensationalist predictions of a far-right take-over did not materialise. Like they didn't materialise during the previous elections, 2019, 2014 and 2009, and probably going further back. In this year's election, the far-right underperformed in the Nordic countries, Belgium, Hungary, Poland, Greece, Italy and Spain. Focus on Germany and France is only partly justified here. 2. Mainstream parties continue holding a comfortable majority in the new European Parliament. 3. The European People's Party, the European mainstream centre-right, did even slightly better than expected. 4. The Socialists more or less hold their positions, not least due to their successes in the Netherlands, France and Italy. 5. One disturbing phenomenon is the rise of the nationalist left (Germany, Slovakia) and the nationalist centre (Czechia). 6. There is a staggering amount of un-informed reporting. Again, there is no far-right take-over at the EU level. If a journalist considers the Czech ODS (Civic Democrats; economically liberal and constuctive EU conservative) to be in the same "far-right camp" as the German AfD (Alternative for Germany), they shoud repeat their high school education. 7. To me, the name of the game is now fragmentation and uncertainty. The composition of the political groups has become more volatile and for that reason, the reported results may yet change in the coming weeks. There are also many MEPs who, so far, do not have any affiliation.

ECPS Interview Dr. Pawel Zerka: Low Turnout in EP Elections Worries Me More Than the Results Just three weeks ahead of the European Parliament elections, Dr. Pawel Zerka says he is more concerned about low turnout than the election results. Dr. Zerka stated, “Even if the far-right increases its number of seats, it will still be a clear minority. What is much more concerning is the lack of reasons for a high turnout.” Concerning the potential threat to liberal democracy in Europe due to the possible success of the far-right in the EP elections, Zerka said, “There is surely a danger for what the EU will stand for in the coming years. However, the responsibility for that danger lies on the shoulders of not just the far-right, but even more so on the center-right.” Interview by Selcuk Gultasli As the European Parliament (EP) elections approach, Dr. Pawel Zerka, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and a leading analyst on European public opinion, emphasizes his concern over low voter turnout rather than the election results themselves. In an interview with the ECPS on Friday Dr. Zerka highlighted his worries, stating, “Even if the far-right increases its number of seats, it will still be a clear minority. What is much more concerning is the lack of reasons for a high turnout.” Dr. Zerka also expressed concerns about the potential threats to liberal democracy in Europe stemming from the possible rise of far-right power in the EP elections. He argued that the real danger lies in how the European Union (EU) might be reshaped in the coming years, emphasizing that the responsibility does not rest solely on far-right parties but also on center-right ones. He elaborated, “Maybe ‘threats to liberal democracy’ would be an exaggeration for me. But there is surely a danger for what the EU will stand for in the coming years. However, the responsibility for that danger lies on the shoulders of not just the far-right, but even more so on the center-right.” The far-right’s potential surge in the EP elections, scheduled for June 6-9, has been a topic of intense discussion. However, Dr. Zerka clarifies that a far-right victory is unlikely, and the focus should instead be on the broader implications for EU policies and dynamics. According to his analysis, the far-right and Eurosceptic parties, grouped under the “Identity and Democracy (I&D)” and “European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)” factions, might increase their seats from 30% to 37%, remaining a minority but achieving a significant foothold in the Parliament. Continue Reading: https://lnkd.in/d-hvrNXu

Turkey elections defeat TÜRKIYE ELECTIONS: IS THIS THE END OF THE ERDOĞAN ERA? The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the results of the local elections held in Türkiye on March 31.  On March 31, over 61 million Turkish citizens casted their votes for the local elections. Ten months after the successful campaign that secured his position at both the presidential and parliamentary elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), have suffered a tough defeat. For the first time since 2002, AKP’s received 2% less votes than the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the largest opposition party, which secured 37.77% of the votes nationwide. Discontent over the country’s persistent economic downturn seems to have been the main reason for the voters' decision not to support Erdoğan, who has been held responsible for not yet resolving the crisis. Alongside economic concerns, hostility with the AKP has shaped the preference of Türkiye’s Kurdish community. Even if the Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) has won in Eastern Kurdish-majority provinces, in the country’s main cities, such as Istanbul and Ankara, Kurds opted to support the CHP, setting aside their ethnic sensitivity. Finally, although foreign policy usually does not play a pivotal role in Turkish local elections, the government’s behaviour in the Gaza war, including the government’s decision to maintain trade relations with Israel, may have prompted AKP supporters to turn their back on the President and favour other conservative parties.  Experts from the ISPI network discuss the 31 March local elections in Türkiye.      Electoral results are a (further) sign that the AKP needs to reform  “The local elections’ results reflected significant outcomes, yet they were not entirely shocking, given that the AKP – as a party – has been in decline mode since around 2015. Here are a set of reasons contributed to this result, including the low voter turnout; economic pressure; the split in the AKP coalition, especially over the Israeli war on Palestinians; wrong election tactics between AKP and MHP; the change in CHP leadership. Following these elections, the AKP needs to conduct a comprehensive review of its performance and learn the right lessons. People have raised a yellow card to their party. Revolutionary measures to drastically re-create the AKP and reform its policies are desperately needed. Most importantly, strategic thinking for the post-Erdoğan era is necessary, as it is almost certain that the next presidential elections will witness the nomination of Ekrem İmamoğlu or the CHP head Özgür Özel. As Erdoğan himself said, “either the AKP sees its mistakes and gathers its strength, or we continue to melt like ice when it sees the sun”. Having said this,

Check out 5 key takeaways from the results of the European Election.

What an Exciting Election Night! My Five Takeaways of the European Elections 2024:   ✳ The European People's Party (EPP) has reaffirmed its position as the largest group in the European Parliament, bolstered by a significant presence in the European Council.   With EPP prime ministers now making up over 40% of the European Council, their influence in the next European Commission will be significantly stronger. Ursula von der Leyen is poised to be re-nominated as President-designate, highlighting the EPP's robust hold over key EU institutions.   ✳Despite snap elections called in France, the right-wing surge is not the main story of the elections   The big winner is the protest vote; groups of candidates and parties not part of any existing group increased substantially. This election cycle highlights the strengthening of non-mainstream parties, with the non-inscribed segment experiencing the most dramatic increase. Populism did not strengthen only on the right but also on the left, as seen in Germany. As to the predicted right-wing shift across Europe, far-right gains were principally a manifestation of good results for the far-right in the EU’s two largest countries, namely the AfD in Germany and the Rassemblement National in France.   ✳Personalisation of Elections Matters   The Spitzenkandidaten process played a central role in election media dynamics. The focus on Ursula von der Leyen and the personalisation of politics could shape future elections, emphasizing individual pan-European candidates.   ✳The Final Composition of Parliament Groups Remains Uncertain   The final makeup of the European Parliament's political groups is expected to evolve, especially for Renew Europe, ECR, and ID. These shifts could significantly alter the balance of power within the Parliament.   ✳Greens' Constructiveness Will Be Now Tested   A potential coalition comprising the EPP, Socialists, and Liberals appears most likely. However, support from the Greens or right-wing factions will be needed for major decisions. The Greens' stance in the upcoming vote for the European Commission President will be closely followed.   What are your main takeaways from the European elections? Klaus Welle Dr. Peter Hefele Margherita Movarelli Panos Tasiopoulos Eoin Drea, PhD Dimitar Lilkov Eleftheria Katsi Julian Bonnici Anna Nalyvayko Anna Rozniatowska-Fidos Teona Lavrelashvili, PhD. Theo Larue Sara Pini Liora Kern Antti Timonen Janne Leino Julia Lisens Vít Novotný Essi Kiiski Jančošeková Viktória   #EUElections2024 #EuropeanParliament #EUPolitics

ECPS Interview Dr. Pawel Zerka: Low Turnout in EP Elections Worries Me More Than the Results Just three weeks ahead of the European Parliament elections, Dr. Pawel Zerka says he is more concerned about low turnout than the election results. Dr. Zerka stated, “Even if the far-right increases its number of seats, it will still be a clear minority. What is much more concerning is the lack of reasons for a high turnout.” Concerning the potential threat to liberal democracy in Europe due to the possible success of the far-right in the EP elections, Zerka said, “There is surely a danger for what the EU will stand for in the coming years. However, the responsibility for that danger lies on the shoulders of not just the far-right, but even more so on the center-right.” Interview by Selcuk Gultasli As the European Parliament (EP) elections approach, Dr. Pawel Zerka, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and a leading analyst on European public opinion, emphasizes his concern over low voter turnout rather than the election results themselves. In an interview with the ECPS on Friday Dr. Zerka highlighted his worries, stating, “Even if the far-right increases its number of seats, it will still be a clear minority. What is much more concerning is the lack of reasons for a high turnout.” Dr. Zerka also expressed concerns about the potential threats to liberal democracy in Europe stemming from the possible rise of far-right power in the EP elections. He argued that the real danger lies in how the European Union (EU) might be reshaped in the coming years, emphasizing that the responsibility does not rest solely on far-right parties but also on center-right ones. He elaborated, “Maybe ‘threats to liberal democracy’ would be an exaggeration for me. But there is surely a danger for what the EU will stand for in the coming years. However, the responsibility for that danger lies on the shoulders of not just the far-right, but even more so on the center-right.” The far-right’s potential surge in the EP elections, scheduled for June 6-9, has been a topic of intense discussion. However, Dr. Zerka clarifies that a far-right victory is unlikely, and the focus should instead be on the broader implications for EU policies and dynamics. According to his analysis, the far-right and Eurosceptic parties, grouped under the “Identity and Democracy (I&D)” and “European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)” factions, might increase their seats from 30% to 37%, remaining a minority but achieving a significant foothold in the Parliament. Continue Reading: https://lnkd.in/dR9Pbu2r