Patrick Malcor’s Post

Opinion: Tensions surge between #Iran and #Israel. How prepared is Iran for potential conflict? Explore Iran's defense capabilities amidst rising tensions. Read More ⤵️: https://lnkd.in/dBrs-u3K

Defense Secretary Austin meets with Zelenskyy in Ukraine Nov 20, 02:40 PM KYIV, Ukraine — U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made an unannounced visit to Kyiv on Monday in a high-profile push to keep money and weapons flowing to Ukraine even as U.S. and international resources are stretched by the new global risks raised by the Israel-Hamas conflict. Austin, who traveled to Kyiv by train from Poland, met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Chief of Staff Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi But the conflict in Gaza could pull attention and resources from the Ukraine fight. The U.S. has worked feverishly since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel, and the weeks of devastating bombardment on Gaza by Israel that has followed, to prevent the conflict from turning into a regional war. Even as Austin stood in St. Michael’s Square in Kyiv, the first question asked at a press briefing at the end of the short visit was about Israel’s use of U.S.-provided weapons in that conflict, instead of about Ukraine. Both conflicts have already seen significant U.S. military support. To back Israel and keep that conflict from spreading, the U.S. has already committed two carrier strike groups, scores of fighter jets and thousands of U.S. personnel to the Middle East, and has had to shift its force posture and conduct airstrikes against Iranian-backed militant groups that are now hitting U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria on a regular basis. For Ukraine, the U.S. has already provided more than $44 billion — and allies have sent an additional $35 billion — in weapons packages that range from millions of bullets to air defense systems, advanced European and U.S. battle tanks and, finally, pledges for F-16 fighter jets. But Ukraine still needs more, and after almost 20 months of shipping arms to Ukraine, cracks are beginning to show. Some European countries such as Poland have scaled back support, noting their need to maintain adequate fighting ability to defend themselves. https://lnkd.in/dFZKee7U

Austin Says U.S. Will Supply Military Necessities to Israel, Ukraine Oct. 12, 2023 The United States will supply Israel with the capabilities it needs to combat the Hamas terror group even as it supplies Ukraine with the weaponry needed to defeat Russia, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said today at NATO headquarters in Brussels In response to the terror attacks out of Gaza, the United States moved naval and aviation assets to the Eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf region to reinforce deterrence. "Nobody should try to take advantage of this vile Hamas assault to cause more bloodshed or instability," Austin said. "Our support for Israel is rock solid. We're working urgently to get Israel what it needs to defend itself, including munitions and Iron Dome interceptors. And we will do so, even as we continue to support the people of Ukraine as they fight against Russian aggression." Austin said the defense leaders discussed the alliance's new regional defense plans and the progress on the new multinational and multidomain allied reaction force. "This new force will provide more response options to threats and crises across all domains," he said. The ministers also discussed the defense investment pledge. That pledge re-affirmed the commitment of alliance nations to spend at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. "Let me also underscore the words of 'at least 2 percent': We urgently need to do more to fulfill the commitments that all of our leaders have made," he said. The ministers examined ways to strengthen defense industrial bases in the various countries with an eye toward improving alliance interoperability. https://lnkd.in/gQV_sdc5

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 The developments in the Ukraine war from August 14 to August 20, 2023, are chock full of significant tactical advancements, international involvement, and internal fractures among Russian military command. These key events define a crucial phase in the conflict, a phase that highlights the ongoing counteroffensive operations, international support to Ukraine, Russian strategy, and the morale within Russian forces. The events of this week are of interest and importance to cybersecurity, information governance, and eDiscovery professionals as they consider the interplay of military strategy, geopolitical interests, and information warfare in a conflict that will most assuredly be followed by military and civilian reporting verification as well as war crime investigations and prosecution. 🔗 🔎 Read the complete update sourced from the Institute for the Study of War at https://lnkd.in/gEvaWQSZ. #Ukraine #Investigations #WarCrimes #eDiscovery

#DisruptiveTech SPOILER ALERT: This is controversial! One could argue that respected media title Defense News (I have collaborated on behalf of clients with their excellent team for a number of years) is a key promoter of the 'western alliance' military-industrial base and the 'official line' on the Russo-Ukrainian war. However, this oped - by Geoff LaMear, a fellow at the DC-based Defense Priorities think tank - is bound to cause consternation in a spectrum of interested groups, not least the United States Department of Defense (DOD) and NATO, in addition to the defense supply chain. But is the analysis and conclusion that far from the truth? Perhaps narratives do need to be tested or challenged more than we have come to expect, especially during the times of frenetic flag waving? LaMear contends that Ukraine’s air defenses are succumbing to myriad air threats that cannot be held off, despite the passage of a recent aid bill that provided an additional $61 billion in military aid. Ukraine’s dire military situation cannot be remedied by a blank check, or as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently requested, more Patriot batteries. The problem is not a resourcing issue, at least not in the short term. The air threats Ukraine faces pose a quantitative overmatch that simply make countering this unachievable. Ukraine’s air defenses are already facing an untenable situation, one which additional Patriot batteries simply cannot remedy. Ukraine currently possesses just three Patriot batteries, one of which recently lost two launchers to a Russian air attack while convoying. By President Zelenskyy’s own reckoning, Ukraine’s patchwork of Soviet, European and American air defense systems is only about 25% of what Ukraine would need to adequately defend itself. Zelenskyy went on to state that providing full coverage would entail a full 25 Patriot systems — nearly eight times Ukraine’s current arsenal and more than twice what Raytheon can produce in a full year. ...But turning on the assembly lines to increase interceptor production is not a function of flipping a switch once funding is secured; the lackluster air defense-industrial base is a result of putting this on the backburner during the war on terrorism. To fill a gap decades in the making will take years. #defense #defence #diplomacy #ukraine #russia #us #nato #airdefense #drones

What I find remarkable about this 3 year timeframe is the 3 year timeframe. While Ukraine might be seen as having had prep time given Russias initial invasion in 2014, I just can’t imagine they see a three year horizon to be war ready. The needs are fluid and immediate. Is 3 years the right number, I don’t know, but with the level of geopolitical threats, I wonder if military forces should be viewing their horizons differently? Staging their preparedness rather than offering timeframes like these? It’s an interesting read.

Iran's role in Syria's defense industry and the resulting geopolitical ramifications are subjects of increasing interest. This collaboration has triggered significant shifts in the Middle East's regional dynamics. Iranian officials have shown commitment in supporting Syria's #military capabilities, particularly its air-defense system, to counter Israeli threats. Recent reports suggest Iran's involvement in Syria's weapon industry, possibly due to motivations related to industry relocation and countering Israel's expanding presence in neighboring countries. The potential connection between #Iran and #Syria's defense sector underscores the possibility of industry relocation being a key driver for Iran's enhanced alliance with Damascus. This move could help protect Iran's infrastructure from attacks by dispersing its activities across multiple states. Moreover, Iran's efforts to counterbalance Israel's influence in the region have led to increased engagement with both Syria and #Lebanon. The collaboration between Iran and Syria has implications for their respective defense industries. Having its own production capabilities in Syria gives Iran a strategic advantage, especially given the role of its Islamic Guard in local military industry production. While this collaboration strengthens the alliance between Iran and Syria, it also faces limits, with other actors such as Russia influencing the extent of cooperation. In the broader context of the Middle East, the region's traditional #instability is undergoing transformation due to evolving #geopolitical shifts. China's involvement in fostering diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Syria, alongside Riyadh's reapproachment with Damascus, signals a reconfiguration of the regional geopolitical landscape. External powers like China and Russia are driving for a new geopolitical scenario, and Saudi Arabia's role in this transformation is crucial, given its efforts to seize opportunities amid changing dynamics. The situation is further complicated by historical tensions, such as those between Syria and Russia, as well as Syria's return to the Arab League. These changes highlight the complexity of the region's evolving dynamics and underscore the importance of regional cooperation and changing alliances. Overall, Iran's collaboration with Syria holds significant implications for the Middle East's geopolitical future, impacting various aspects including defense, alliances, and peace prospects.

In the face of Russia's escalating threats, several European countries are revisiting conscription policies to bolster their defenses. Prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the notion of conscription seemed outdated. However, the ongoing conflict has necessitated a shift in military strategies, with countries like Latvia reintroducing compulsory military service. Latvia's move, effective January 1, 2024, reflects a broader trend among nations, particularly in Scandinavia and the Baltics, to enhance military readiness. Norway, for instance, plans to nearly double its defense budget and significantly increase its conscripted personnel. According to General Wesley Clark, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, these measures are critical as NATO adapts to the possibility of a prolonged conflict. Countries like Norway and Sweden have maintained significant numbers of reservists, and Finland can rapidly activate a vast reserve force. These models demonstrate the need for a robust and flexible military infrastructure. Finland’s capacity to mobilize 280,000 military personnel swiftly exemplifies an effective integration of reservists into a smaller active force. This approach is mirrored in Sweden and Norway, where gender-neutral conscription is becoming the norm. The reactivation of conscription in these countries highlights a significant cultural and strategic shift, driven by the pressing need to counter Russian aggression. NATO's strategic revisions underscore the urgency of adapting to a new geopolitical landscape shaped by Russia's actions. The alliance has significantly transformed its defense capabilities since 2014, with a focus on high readiness troops and comprehensive defense plans. Despite these efforts, challenges remain, particularly in sustaining a prolonged conflict. The alliance faces a critical need for increased industrial capacity, defense spending, and societal resilience. As the geopolitical situation continues to evolve, NATO and its member states are grappling with the realities of modern warfare, underscoring the importance of a prepared and adaptable military force. *Source: "Europe turns to conscription as threat of wider war with Russia grows," CNN, July 21, 2024.*

Good read on a prescient US Foreign Policy conundrum (Reckoning even) in the Sahel region.

“Reprioritizing available resources across the U.S. budget to allocate more FMF dollars toward the Indo-Pacific is urgently required to achieve the U.S. Government’s National Security Strategy”. If the US has made $33B USD available to Israel in the form of FMF it stands to reason that, as the US’s principal ally in the Pacific and as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” for US forces, Australia should push for a slice of foreign military finance money. Developing strategic infrastructure should be a funding priority. C3I assets - yes Expanding existing joint facilities - yes Dedicated US facilities - yes Fuel and munitions storage - yes Forward deployed kit and equipment - yes Shared base infrastructure for combat operations - hell yes ! The Government needs to identify opportunities for direct US investment in Sustralian Defence assets and infrastructure and leverage that investment for long term ADF capability gains.