It is always amazing, and often makes me wonder, to observe how events unfold:
This year, 2024, has made it unequivocally clear that we are already in the throes of climate change. As I scroll through posts on LinkedIn, I find numerous voices proclaiming, "Yes, we knew it (not)." (For example, see Peter Jelinek https://lnkd.in/edqmqxMJ or https://lnkd.in/eqpJzFPh).
I don't want to be misunderstood; these cited articles are highly relevant and absolutely worth reading. They underscore the urgent need for climate action.
However, my focus is slightly different. Whenever something significant occurs—be it a flood, a pandemic, or an economic crisis—there are always people who claim to have known it beforehand. This phenomenon is known as the "#HindsightBias," one of many #CognitiveBiases that can make our thinking more efficient and lead to erroneous conclusions. In the context of climate change, these biases can lead to underestimation or denial of its severity, hindering the necessary actions for mitigation and adaptation.
In the context of the recent posts about the flooding in Bavaria, there is also a "Halo Effect" at play (perhaps a sort of reverse Halo). Just because Markus Söder did not expect the flooding does not mean that nobody in Bavaria foresaw it. This illustrates the dangerous tendency to believe that prominent public figures "must" always be right (or at least claim that). Other cognitive biases that can influence our perception of climate change include the 'Confirmation Bias,' where we seek information that confirms our existing beliefs, and the 'Anchoring Bias,' where we rely too heavily on the first piece of information we receive.
However, most approaches and techniques in #StrategicForesight —such as #ScenarioTechnique, #TrendAnalysis, and #HorizonScanning —are specifically designed to systematically explore various possible futures. These methods aim to mitigate the influence of cognitive biases, including hindsight, confirmation, and anchoring biases.
As Alex Fergnani stated in one of his videos about foresight practitioners (paraphrased very freely), "In the end, you are standing in front of a group of highly motivated and skilled people, facilitating and moderating a structured thinking process, challenging common beliefs, and ensuring that the quieter voices are heard." So, if you ever wonder what "a foresighter" does: It is creating the space for creative and #CriticalThinking, designing and facilitating the process and moderating creative workshops and exchanges.
Taking a break to think about what I want to do with the rest of my life.
1wCongrats, Niklas Höhne, well deserved!