NOAA Satellite and Information Service’s Post

Somewhat warmer temperatures for now. But an ugly weather forecast is emerging for the USA. Especially the south central states. Many are rejoicing over the exit of the Arctic air mass that recently covered the eastern 2/3 of the nation. Some are singing the "winter cancel" refrain, with comments like "El Nino means mild", "the MJO favors warmth", and the expected "global warming is doing away with snow and cold". When you brush such nonsense aside, you go back to looking at analogs and numerical model trends to make a legitimate weather prediction. Which, as it turns out, would suggest that winter is far from over and that this "January Thaw" will give way to a colder and icier turn by the first week of February. One aspect of the current pattern is the huge moisture fetch from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. You may recall that Hurricane Harvey was concurrent with this extreme rise in dewpoints, causing utter bedlam in Houston TX via torrential rain. The disturbance coming into Texas (and later Louisiana and other parts of Dixie) is cold core and disorganized, so I do not expect the massive precipitation event of 2017. But rest assured, there will be a great deal of rain (6-12" of water), and it will be tough to shake off the wet pattern. At least two more disturbances in the deep split flow will pass through California into Texas in the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. The last in the main sequence of storms looks to be real trouble; the warm ridging will be forced north and west, enabling some colder air to occupy the south central and East Coast states. It is this last system that looks to break the milder trends in the first week of February, with the 16-20 day time frame likely to show a mild West vs. cold Central/East alignment.

January 2024 U.S. Climate Report update: ⚠️ The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in January was 31.8°F, 1.6°F above average—ranking in the middle third of the 130-year record. ❄️ A powerful bomb cyclone brought cold temperatures, strong winds, and heavy snow to portions of the Northwest on January 8–10—the Seattle NWS issued the first blizzard warning in over 11 years for the region. 🔵 The arctic air mass from January 14–18 broke nearly 2,500 daily minimum temperatures county records from the Northwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley. On January 16, the lowest temperature in the country occurred in Briggsdale, CO, with a low of −35°F. 💦 On January 22–25, heavy rainfall brought more than a month’s worth of rain and life-threatening flooding to parts of Texas and Louisiana. 🌧️ January precipitation for the contiguous U.S. was 3.18 inches, 0.87 inch above average—ranking 10th wettest in the historical record. 🌾 On January 30, about 23.5% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down about 9.5% from the beginning of January. Learn more in our January 2024 U.S. Climate Report: https://lnkd.in/eNvb3FX5

Record-breaking temperatures are scorching the Central US this week as an intense #HeatDome settles in. Over 75 million Americans face excessive heat warnings. How do heat domes form and what can we expect as climate change worsens? Learn more via this informative article by RebeccaHersher at NPR: https://lnkd.in/gJxyF2EE #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #wildfires #fire #disasters #science #management #earth #disasters #naturaldisasters #emergency #flood #climate #climatechange #storm #heat #earthquake #egreenews #inergency

According to federal forecasters, a strong El Niño is expected to moderate storm tracks and bring changes to the United States' winter weather. 🌬️ Here's what the forecast predicts: ▪️ Warmer than normal temperatures in the North, with the South being wetter and stormier. ☀️ ▪️ Snow lovers might still get lucky with one or two possible Nor'easters along the East Coast. ❄️ ▪️ Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England have the greatest odds for warmer than average conditions. 🌡️ ▪️ Massachusetts down the East Coast and most of the South are expected to be wetter, while the Great Lakes region and parts of the northern U.S. will be drier than normal. 🌧️ ▪️ El Niño's effects will be felt the most during the winter, influencing storm fronts and bringing rain in the South and extra storminess. ⛈️ ▪️ Prepare for "weather whiplash" on the East Coast, with little snow overall but a chance for one or two significant snowstorms, especially in the Mid-Atlantic. ❄️ Be prepared for any weather surprises this winter! ⚠️ Source: https://lnkd.in/ex5pSkhM

Record-breaking temperatures are scorching the Central US this week as an intense #HeatDome settles in. Over 75 million Americans face excessive heat warnings. How do heat domes form and what can we expect as climate change worsens? Learn more via this informative article by RebeccaHersher at NPR: https://lnkd.in/gJxyF2EE #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #wildfires #fire #disasters #science #management #earth #disasters #naturaldisasters #emergency #flood #climate #climatechange #storm #heat #earthquake #egreenews #inergency

The Northeast region has had excessive rainfall over what feels like every weekend...have you reviewed your Flood Policy? Do you have one? A total of 24 separate $1 billion weather and climate disasters have been confirmed this year—the most events on record during a calendar year. 18 Sever Storm events, 2 Flooding events, 1 Tropical Cyclone, 1 Winter Storm, 1 Wildfire, 1 Drought and 1 Heatwave event.

It's official. It was North Carolina's driest June on record (records back to 1895). In the wake of a wet May, this June brought record low rainfall in North Carolina. Combined with the extreme heat, that send drought expanding statewide with noticeable impacts across the landscape. State Climate Office of North Carolina's latest monthly climate summary has more on this hot, dry June in our state: https://lnkd.in/ecDt3wm6

“So far this year, rain-induced flooding has hit regions that include India, the Philippines and California and Vermont in the US. Last August, after flooding killed 1,700 and displaced 8 million in Pakistan, researchers at World Weather Attribution were able to calculate that climate change made the rainfall 75% more intense. When Hurricane Ian hit Cuba and Florida a month later, researchers estimated that climate change had made its rainfall 10% worse. As temperatures increase, so too does evaporation — a relationship familiar to anyone who’s tried drying clothes outside in winter versus summer. That’s because warmer air is able to absorb more water; and as evaporation increases, precipitation does too. “That means that globally, there's going to be more precipitation,” says Anthony J. Broccoli, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Rutgers University and co-director of the Rutgers Climate Institute.  For every 1 degree Celsius the atmosphere warms, it holds 7% more water vapor. So far, the Earth has warmed by roughly 1.3C, and current projections from Climate Action Tracker anticipate global average temperature increasing about 2.7C by 2100.”

Climate change real? Highlights from today's IEM daily news letter for Extreme Hazard Events: 1. An atmospheric river is drenching Southern California today before another sweeps in over the weekend (CNN, February 1, 2024) The first of two atmospheric rivers is unloading heavy snow at high elevations and gusty winds and soaking rainfall Thursday across a large part of California. More than 20 million people are under flood alerts as storms threaten flash flooding in cities including Los Angeles, San Diego, Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose and Oakland. The threat will last into Friday morning for central and Southern California. https://lnkd.in/e3mY7sDs 2. International: Norway’s most powerful storm in over 30 years rips roofs off houses, cuts power (Associated Press, February 1, 2024) Norway’s most powerful storm in more than three decades ripped off roofs, heightened avalanche risks, canceled flights and cut power as it raged in parts of the Scandinavian country Thursday. Hurricane-force winds brought gusts of up to 180 kilometers (112 miles) per hour in some places. A new national wind speed record of 195.8 kilometers per hour (121.7 miles per hour) was recorded locally early Thursday on the island of Soemma, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute said. https://lnkd.in/eP-U3f-S   3. International: Another cyclone warning issued for Australia as heatwave strikes (Daily Mail, January 31, 2024) Queenslanders have been warned they could face their third cyclone as a searing heatwave across Australia brings temperatures reaching 40C this weekend. Six days after Cyclone Kirrily made landfall near Townsville, all 66,000 homes that lost power finally had electricity fully restored on Wednesday. https://lnkd.in/eHh7gGpy