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Compared to last year, the tone of this year's Jackson Hole speech was relatively mild. It also offered very little in the way of new information. As expected, Jerome Powell highlighted the Fed's progress in bringing down inflation but noted prices were still uncomfortably high and warned higher rates could be appropriate. He also pointed to better-than-expected economic growth and a resilient labor market as potential catalysts for further tightening of monetary policy. Turning to the Fed's upcoming meetings, while markets still expect rates to hold steady in September, investors are increasingly expecting a hike to follow. The probability of a 25bps increase in November has now jumped to over 50% from under 30% a month ago #grit

Another month, another CPI report proving the enduring power of #BeingIsBelieving effects and the superior market insights one obtains from Thematic Markets. Core CPI on a 3m annualized basis is now running at 4.5%! If you're tired of losing money listening to "free" research, perhaps you should consider making a better investment: buy a subscription to Thematic Markets, the research that has consistently and accurately called rates, FX, and equities this entire cycle from its start.

Happy Friday! Fed Chairman Jay Powell just concluded speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. He noted that inflation is trending in the right direction with two straight months of improving data, but this alone is not enough for the Fed to pat itself on the back and consider job completed. The Fed remains determined to achieve its 2% goal on inflation, no wavering or change in target. Cuts were not mentioned, but the possibility of more hikes if needed were implied. Chair Powell noted that there’s still considerable lag time to see the full effect of the Feds interest rate hikes and balance sheet runoff. Powell noted some easing in pandemic supply-demand imbalances and that the current rate of Fed Funds is likely above the long term rate needed for balance. No hinting specifically to any near term rate cuts or hikes. All in all, no shocking comments that are likely to drive markets in either direction and reiterating the Fed’s commitment to fight against higher inflation. Markets trading relatively little change following the comments.

Breaking 🤯 : Strong economy may still require rate increases, FED chair Jerome Powell said in today's press conference. Here are key quotes from his speech - 1. Further monetary policy tightening may be necessary if there's more evidence of above-trend growth or the labor market stops easing. 2. The current policy stance is considered restrictive. 3. Balancing the degree of tightening is complicated due to uncertainties. 4. There may still be additional tightening measures in the pipeline. 5. The Fed is committed to achieving a sufficiently restrictive policy stance. 6. The Fed is closely monitoring economic growth and labor market resilience. 7. Inflation remains high, despite favorable summer inflation readings and somewhat less encouraging September data. 8. The labor market is tight but gradually cooling. 9. Higher bond yields are creating tighter financial conditions, which is in line with the Fed's goals. 10. There's no fundamental shift in how interest rates impact the economy. The markets have anticipated Fed policy changes. 11. The neutral interest rate may have risen in the near term, but uncertainty remains about the longer term. 12. There's uncertainty about whether we're entering a more inflationary period. 13. The rise in bond yields does not seem to be driven by expectations of the Fed taking more action on interest rates. 14. It's unclear whether the increase in bond yields will persist due to market volatility. Meanwhile #Gold is 🆙 1.33% and #SPX is 📉 by 1.18% #finance #investment #portfolio #fed #economic #interestrate #trading photo source Reuters

The Fed's stance on rate cuts has been a focal point in financial discussions lately. Despite initial expectations for rate cuts in 2024, recent inflation data has cast uncertainty over the timeline. The upcoming months hold key data points that could sway market dynamics, including core PCE data and first-quarter corporate earnings. Strong earnings have historically buoyed the market, especially for large-cap companies with healthy reserves. As the June Fed meeting approaches, investors should closely monitor economic indicators and corporate performance to navigate the evolving landscape. #USEconomy #RateCuts #Inflation #EconomicIndicators

In February 2024, global inflation remained on its downward trend, even though the Fed's preferred metric (Core PCE Deflator) is re-accelerating upwards on a monthly basis.   The rise in long-term rates had absolutely no impact on equity markets. Meanwhile, investors preferred to focus on better-than-expected corporate earnings. Read more in our monthly market comment by Guillaume DUPIN our CIO LFIS Capital: https://lnkd.in/ezi6AgUA #FinancialMarkets #AssetManagement #AlternativeInvestments Guillaume DUPIN Arnaud Sarfati Sofiène Haj-Taieb

📉 Investors are on the edge of their seats for Wednesday's Fed meeting! Will we see one or two interest rate cuts this year? While market watchers are hyper-focused on these projections, Fed officials remain unified in their wait-and-see approach. With solid economic growth and inflation slightly above target, they're taking a summer pause to assess the situation. 🏦 The Fed is expected to keep the short-term benchmark rate steady between 5.25% and 5.5%. The big question: how many officials foresee rate cuts based on the latest economic data? The upcoming inflation report could shape these crucial decisions. 💼 The labor market is showing signs of stability, and economic activity remains strong. However, inflation trends are mixed, adding uncertainty. Fed Chair Powell and his team need more convincing data before making moves to avoid any potential downturns. 🌐 With no major policy shifts expected, all eyes will be on the "dot plot" for clues about future rate cuts. Will it be one or two? Investors, keep your eyes peeled! #FedMeeting #InterestRates #Economy #Inflation #Powell #Investing #FinanceNews https://lnkd.in/ejBapy_6

Major equity markets finished the week mixed. The consumer sentiment update came in lower as consumer expectations for inflation worsened. Focus however was centered around Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday where he reiterated that interest rates will remain elevated. Powell also kept the door open to additional rate hikes later this year. We expect that the Fed and inflation will likely remain a focus for investors through the end of the year. Next week we will see updates on inflation and GDP data.

Major equity markets finished last week mixed. The consumer sentiment update came in lower as consumer expectations for inflation worsened. Focus however was centered around Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday where he reiterated that interest rates will remain elevated. Powell also kept the door open to additional rate hikes later this year. We expect that the Fed and inflation will likely remain a focus for investors through the end of the year. Next week we will see updates on inflation and GDP data.

Will inflation rates result in challenges for the Fed further down the line? Due to their favourable position right now, fulfilling the dual mandate of price stability and full employment is possible. However, this may not always be the case… Join our Head of Investments Solutions, James Flintoft, as he reviews how much interest rates are driving markets at the moment and why there is value in keeping neutral for the long run 👇 “Back in the fourth quarter of 2023 markets expected the Fed to cut as soon as March and to put through a series of six cuts sometime this year. Those expectations are being readily walked back following generally good economic news coming out the of the US and some inflation volatility.” https://lnkd.in/eDutkU_X