Maggie MacDougall’s Post

Many have been talking about a U.S. fiscal crisis or a "Liz Truss Moment." They often say that the U.S. fiscal deficit is too large and public debt levels too high, setting the path for eventual fiscal ruin. This Alpine Macro chart shows that the U.S. public sector debt-to-GDP ratio has soared to 120% last year from 35% in 1980, but long bond yields, both in nominal and real terms, have fallen dramatically during the period. Similarly, Japan's debt/GDP ratio is 220%, while its 10-year yields are barely at 1%. One thing we all must agree on: the correlation between debt and levels of interest rates is, in fact, negative. If a nation does not borrow in foreign currency, there is no such thing as a "fiscal risk premium" because the central bank is the "buyer of last resort," period. You may have a currency or inflation problem or both, but not a "sovereign debt problem." Interested in our thought in this issue? Contact us at https://lnkd.in/eHPqb-b #debt #crisis #fiscalcrisis #bonds #selloff #currency #investment #bull #bear #strategy #capitalmarkets #Fedpolicy #interestrates

This is not getting enough attention - US corporate interest payments have plunged (see chart)…even as rates sharply rose. Because companies termed out debt early in the pandemic. US IG corporates have <10% of debt coming due annually through 2030, what maturity wall? Implication is simple yet profound: #Qualitylncome is back in fixed income. 86% of global fixed income assets are now yielding 4% or more, vs. <20% in the decade pre-pandemic. I still like #equities more - on earnings, Al, and generally how risk taking leans - but it is important to mark that as the world of fixed income embrace #HighForLonger we now get pretty good income in pretty good assets (link to weekly in comment).

As some of you already know, I have moved on from my role as EVP Corporate Development at Montage Gold, a company I had the pleasure of being a part of since its formation in August 2019. I am very proud of what our close-knit team accomplished in a short time -- we found a gold mine! One that has significant scale, a low-cost structure, meaningful upside potential, and which will undoubtedly generate strong returns for shareholders with the backing and support of the Lundin Group of Companies going forward. I would like to sincerely thank everyone who played a role in the success of Montage and the Koné project - a complete list is too long to include here, but first and foremost Rick Clark and Hugh Stuart. Hugh's vision led to the discovery of the Koné deposit dating back to 2009. His conviction and quiet confidence led us forward during a prolonged period of difficult capital markets, where we all believed in what we had and knew that eventually, the market would respond. Thank you to Rick Clark for amplifying Hugh's vision and bringing his experience and strong relationships to secure funding for Montage during some of the worst equity market conditions experienced in decades. Without his support and leadership, the Koné project would not have become what it is today. Thank you also to Kevin Ross , Glenn Kondo, Liam McDonnell, Joseph TANO, Mike Robinson, and Elaine Scott -- who were all key team members and whom I am glad to have had the opportunity to collaborate with. I remain very excited for what is to come for Montage and its shareholders, and I am very proud of what our small team accomplished together!

Jonathan Haidt is a 60-year-old social psychologist who believes that your child’s smartphone is a threat to mental well-being. Haidt blames the spike in teen-age depression and anxiety on the rise of smartphones and social media, and he offers a set of prescriptions: no smartphones before high school, no social media before age 16. “A lot of the indicators of teen mental health were actually steady or improving in the late ’90s, and all the way through the 2000s—even up to 2011,” he says. “And then in 2012 and 2013: boom. The graphs go way, way up. Mental health falls off a cliff. It’s incredibly sudden.” Read on to learn more about the adolescent mental-health crisis, and why social media might be to blame: http://nyer.cm/BzxJQ2j