One of Warren Buffett's most successful investments is GEICO. In 2024, it produced $5 billion in pretax income for Berkshire Hathaway.
But Warren had the courage of Lion to initiate this position at a fraction of its current value.
Here's why Buffett pulled the trigger:
Warren had been a shareholder of GEICO 26 years earlier in 1950 but sold out quickly at a 50% profit when he was focused on cheap cigar butts. In 1976, the business was going through some headwinds:
In the years leading up to 1970, GEICO's profits went from $2.5 million to a loss after it underestimated its reserves.
The company was led by Lorimer Davidson, who retired in 1970. To fix the mess, the new CEO, Norman Gidden, attempted to grow policies faster than GEICO had historically. Policies grew at an annual rate of 11% between 1970 and 1974, compared to 7% from 1965 to 1970.
As a part of this growth plan GEICO began relaxing its standards.
For the first time, it expanded its services to allow blue-collar workers and drivers under 21. This was a demographic with a sketchier history. As a result
Auto repair and medical costs rocketed upwards, and underwriting losses increased alarmingly.
What was happening to GEICO's share price at the time?
It wasn't pretty.
GEICO had an all-time high share price of $61 in 1972.
In 1973, it had a 50% haircut.
In 1974, the price was further pummeled to $10.
And by 1975, GEICO had to eliminate its dividends, and the stock dropped further to $7.
If you thought things couldn't get any worse, you're mistaken. In 1976, at the annual meeting, Gidden admitted somebody else could have done a better job than he'd done so far. The board appointed John Byrne as CEO, and the stock further dropped to $5.
Byrne's first move as CEO was to announce a $76 million convertible preferred stock offering so GEICO could increase its capital base. But shareholders were unimpressed, and the price further fell to $2. But during the worst possible time
Buffett began vacuuming up shares.
He deployed $4.1 million of capital for 1,294,308 shares, with an average purchase price of $3.18. He nearly bottom-ticked it.
He didn't view GEICO as a turnaround. Buffett understood GEICO very well.
Despite the company's struggles, GEICO's fundamental advantage as a low-cost provider remained intact. He compared GEICO to American Express and the salad oil scandal.
"The GEICO and AMEX situations, extraordinary business franchises with a localized excisable cancer (needing, to be sure, a skilled surgeon) should be distinguished from the true 'turnaround' situation in which the managers expect, and need, to pull of a corporate Pygmalion."
Buffett knew drivers were still using GEICO's products, and the fact GEICO's financials were ugly, did not change that fact.
The big lesson was that great companies experience events that can cause headwinds. If you understand the business differently than anybody and know the business will triumph, then you'll do very well!
Vice President Sales Northern California at LGI Homes
1moThank you for your steady leadership!! Congratulations on 20!!!