Kieran Cavanna’s Post

It’s hard to make sense of VC valuation these days. I went through stacks of reports and uncovered underlying trends explaining why the data shown doesn’t always represent reality on the field. *** First, here’s where the market stands in Q1 2024 for the US (data published in May): - Seed: $13m median valuation - Series A: $42m - Series B: $118m - Series C: $196m - Series D: $212m - Series E: $841m BUT a ton of underlying trends make these numbers less meaningful than before. 1/ Priced equity rounds are rare at Seed under $2m, where SAFEs dominate 2/ The number of deals is down 30-35% at early stage, with a flight to quality where only the most promising investments are closed 3/ There are few deals done at late stage—one or two transactions have a considerable impact 4/ The data excludes bridge rounds, which often have different valuation dynamics 5/ Down rounds are at record highs for the last few years, indicating that median valuations are less representative than before 6/ AI is going through its own bubble. Other verticals have not all recovered I updated my startup valuation article with data from Carta, PitchBook, and Sapphire Ventures. (Thank you!). Link below! 👇 Podcast source: B2G Pod with legends Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner. #venturecapital #valuation #AI

Newsletter link in the comments. Some great podcast discussions to listen to this week... Gary D. Cohn on Conquering Obstacles, Convening People and Creating Economic Opportunity, a discussion with Amanda Hindlian on the ICE House podcast. Data Visionary Bob Muglia on Data, AI, and New Book — ‘The Datapreneurs’, a discussion with S. Somasegar on the Founded & Funded podcast. 20VC: The Memo: The State of the VC Market with Jason M. Lemkin, a discussion with Harry Stebbings on the 20VC Podcast. This week's M&A, fundraising, and people moves... MarketAxess acquired Pragma. INRIX raised $70M in a round led by Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Micro Connect | 滴灌通 raised $458M in a Series C. One Model raised $41M in a growth round led by Riverwood Capital. Simon Data raised $54M in a Series D led by Macquarie Capital. Weights & Biases raised $50M at a $1.25B valuation in a round led by Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman. Eric Brown joined Cohesity as CFO. Meaghan Dugan was appointed to the Board of Directors of Options Clearing Corporation (OCC). Brendan Gay was promoted to Director of Data Partnerships at Exabel. Victoria Haynes joined Insights Driven Research (IDR) as Senior Manager, Client Services. Daniel Khomenko joined Insights Driven Research (IDR) as Head of Operations. Chris Kleparek joined Polygon.io as Head of Data Acquisition. Nicole Königstein joined Wyden Capital as Chief Data Scientist, Head of AI & Quant Research. Steven Kordik joined Brevan Howard as Head of Systematic Global Operations. James Maxfield was promoted to Chief Product Officer at Duco. Katherine Mitchell joined CreditSights as Marketing Director. Blair Pelling joined S&P Global as Sales Director, Datafeed Solutions. Brent Reichert joined The Trade Desk as Director, Retail Data Partnerships. Spencer Wallace joined Vested Futures as Director, Fintech Solutions. Camilla Shuyu Yang was promoted to Director of Operations at Exabel. Chris Z. joined Amateras AEA Capital as Vice President. And some though provoking articles... Handbook of Alternative Data in Finance, Volume I edited by Gautam Mitra, Christina Erlwein-Sayer, Kieu Thi Hoang, Diana Roman, and Zryan Sadik. How bonds ate the entire financial system by Robin Wigglesworth in the Financial Times. The Unicorn Fire Sales Ahead by Kate Clark in The Information. The Network Expert’s latest Substack post on all things expert networks. Upcoming events, interesting roles, chart of the week, and a meme in the link. #data #analytics #careers

Highly recommended #WealthTech Today monthly #podcast and transcript with newest updates on #wealthmanagement #technology with host, Craig Iskowitz of Ezra Group, LLC. This month's review includes: #Financialplanning FinTech platform Asset-Map teams up with #taxplanning tech firm, Holistiplan Brief overview of new additions to Michael Kitces' #AdvisorTech Map including: Greenboard - an AI-powered compliance tool for communications Dow Software, LLC's Strad Pro - a virtual family office platform Zeplyn AI - an AI copilot for financial advisors to automate advisor workflow boosting client engagement and accelerating organic growth. UpContent - AI digital marketing to curate your credibility Brightwave.io - an AI research assistant for financial professionals in the investment data analytics category Ezra Group also checks out each WealthTech vendor application and gives them an #integration score that they compile for advisors. #financialservices #business #operations #engagement #compliance #marketing #innovation #AdvisorTech https://lnkd.in/gTJrMHC8

More positive signs the market is returning in 2024 🤘.... After a year in which the technology sector and the broader economy faced challenges, it is heartening to witness investors regaining confidence in the market. Funding rounds and investments have been on an upward trajectory in since the back end of 2023 💥 Congratulations to SurrealDB, Impact Analytics, VAST Data, Synthetaic, Hayden AI and undoubtedly many others on their recent influx of investment 🚀🚀🚀 Exciting year ahead.... #investment #funding #expansion #ITsales

The 2024 edition of the Data-Driven VC Landscape is out! The report provides insights from a survey of 190 data-driven VCs, as well as several external data sources. My key takeaways: 1️⃣ VCs become data-driven in search for efficiency, effectiveness, and inclusiveness. 2️⃣ Data-driven VCs are still a minority of the industry, but for 35% of them, data-driven tools are already responsible for half of the deals sourced today. 3️⃣ LLMs enabled much easier adoption, with 66% of data-driven using LLMs in their value chain (mostly screening & due diligence and sourcing, but also communication, emails and memo drafting). 59% of data-driven VCs still are not data-driven. 4️⃣ Buy what you can buy, and focus on building what is truly differentiated. 80% of data-driven VCs use a combination of external and internal tools. 3️⃣ Bad times to be a VC analyst. A third of data-driven VCs believe that AI allows them to cut headcount in their investment teams. 💡 Best data sources: Dealroom.co emerges as the faster riser, jumping 4 positions to 3rd place. Pitchbook and CBinsights, we are coming for you 🏃 Great work by Dr. Andre Retterath at Data-Driven VC and Earlybird Venture Capital #venturecapital #dealflow

Everyone knows that AI is the hot-button topic of today. But what about in a year from now? This latest quantitative report debuts a new series: VC Emerging Opportunities. This cross-vertical analysis covers everything from SaaS to gaming to climate tech—and includes proprietary predictions on future returns on investment. Using their ML-enabled VC Exit Predictor, PitchBook’s quantitative team charts the course of the next generation of startup successes and calculates payout expectations for early investors.

📢 New episode of The Money & Meaning Show! With special guest Wes Crill, Senior Investment Director and Vice President, Dimensional Fund Advisors In this episode, Wes and Jeff dive deep into the world of investments! They cover a wide range of topics, including: 💰👩⚕️How should you determine your allocation to risky vs risk management assets throughout life? How does the impact of human capital and financial capital shift as we age? 🌟 What is factor investing and what are some characteristics associated with higher expected returns? How do you determine the appropriate amount to tilt to these factors? 🪙 Is fixed income still relevant in a portfolio when cash is yielding nearly 5%? What type of fixed income makes sense to manage different types of risks? 🤖 Can AI predict capital markets? What is its impact on investing? Check out this short clip 👀 https://lnkd.in/gsNajzKH #MoneyAndMeaning #InvestmentInsights #FactorInvesting #ArtificialIntelligence #FinancialIntelligence Dimensional Fund Advisors, founded in 1981, has a long history of applying academic research to practical investing. They offer a full range of equity and fixed income strategies designed to target higher expected returns. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/gPWYGpBr Find Jeff's latest release, The Money & Meaning Journey, which covers many of the same topics discussed in this podcast in more depth: https://lnkd.in/ga7tmNna 🎬 Click here to view full video ➡️ youtu.be/j4ORF0UQcbI We'd love to hear your ideas on topics you'd like covered in future episodes! Please feel free to email moneyandmeaning@tandemgrowth.com?utm_source=linkedin. 🎧 https://lnkd.in/gjcHdwbF=linkedin/resources/money-meaning-show Disclosures: https://lnkd.in/gKvvvhv2 https://lnkd.in/gHEhp-Zc

"Quantitative investing provides an enormous advantage to investors" Bloomberg’s At The Money Podcast zu den "Benefits of Quantitative Investing" kann ich nur zustimmen 😀 https://lnkd.in/ecGJSXmx "So to wrap up. Quantitative investing provides an enormous advantage to investors: - It’s specific, it’s evidence-based, 💡 - it uses data 👩💻, and - it avoids the emotional 😱 / 🤑 decision-making, that leads investors astray." #QuantiativeFinance #MachineLearning #AI

Ever found yourself caught in the flow of the crowd? A team has just presented their findings, and suddenly, a thunderous applause erupts from the back of the room. You join in instinctively, not entirely sure why – a classic example of the herding mentality at play. But this phenomenon doesn't just end with applause; it extends into more profound fields, like investment decisions and strategic choices. In the world of finance, it's particularly pronounced and can inflate bubbles, causing financial assets to be vastly overvalued. Now, here's where it gets intriguing. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase are sounding the alarm, predicting a looming burst in the AI-driven bubble. This bubble, inflated by overrated assumptions in the AI market, could potentially send shockwaves through the stock market. And then there's Julian Teicke, who's been keenly observing the herd mentality in venture capital investments. It's a trend that can obscure opportunities for innovation and create bubbles, effectively sidelining promising investment sectors like food, fintech, and HR startups. Here's the pressing question: if all the attention is on AI, what happens to these other fields with immense potential? Today, the challenge is crystal clear – we must become discerning investors, evaluating every opportunity meticulously before leaping in. It's easy to underestimate, but the herd's influence might be subtly guiding your financial decisions. Now, it's over to you. Do you think the AI world is on the brink of a bubble burst? Share your insights in the comments 👇. Ps. Special Thanks to Daniel Obeng for his immense contribution to this post. #herdmentality #Artificialintelligence #venturecapital #businesssuccess #managementconsulting #decisionmaking #wednesdayhighlights

https://lnkd.in/g5G7UKp7 Always a pleasure having someone to "geek" out over investing with! Thanks for joining us, Wes Crill! #moneyandmeaning #factorinvesting #artificialintelligence