Joseph Fagan’s Post

BLS jobs report for March came out today and job growth was higher than anticipated. This was not favorable for mortgage bonds and put upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The report on its face indicates that the economy is stronger which can lead to wage inflation. Higher inflation means interest rates will stay higher for longer. However, the detail shows that much of the job growth came from new part time jobs which covered up the weakness in full time job growth and full time job losses.

The job market remains strong despite the rate hikes. Will we see a rate cut soon? I don't know. I think mortgage rates may go sideways and home prices will keep rising. We need some help from the inflation data coming out this week. Job growth beat expectations once again in December, with the BLS reporting 216K new jobs were created. However, revisions to the data for October and November shaved 71K jobs from those months combined. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, which was better than the expected rise to 3.8%. Employers added a total of 2.7 million jobs last year, an average of 225K a month. #bls #jobs #unemploymentrate #mbshighway #mbssocialshare #mortgagemarketnews #mortgageintheknow

📊💼 May Jobs Report Summary 💼📊 🚀 Job Growth: May saw 272K new jobs, beating estimates of 185K. However, 231K jobs came from the Birth/Death model, meaning actual growth might be only 41K. 🍹 Leisure & Hospitality: Added 42K jobs, but without the Birth/Death model, this sector would have lost 47K jobs. 💸 Wage Inflation: Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, with an annual rise of 4.1%. 📉 Unemployment Rate: The rate rose to 4% from 3.9% due to 408K job losses, primarily from full-time positions. 📉📈 Market Impact: Mortgage bonds are struggling below key moving averages, and the 10-year yield is testing critical levels. We hope bonds respond to the higher unemployment rate and job report nuances. 🏠📉 Impact on Mortgage Rates & Industry: Higher wage inflation and mixed job data could lead to rate volatility. Stay informed with Fortem Loans to navigate these changes! #YourFinancialFreedomFighters #JobsReport #EconomicInsights #MortgagePoints #FortemLoans #FortemFinancial

There’s more evidence of weakness in the labor sector. Job growth in July was well below estimates, as the BLS reported that 114K new jobs were created versus the 175K that were forecasted. Revisions to the data for May and June also cut 29K jobs from those months combined. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. SPECIAL NOTE: With today's more accurate BLS jobs report, the Stock market is tanking in all major sectors over recession fears. The Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 and a host of other stocks in various categories. Simultaneously, Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities which affect mortgage rates are seeing a flight to quality sending mortgage rates lower to levels unseen in months. All this adds to the speculation that the Fed has No Other choice to lower rates. Some are speculating a 0.5% vs the previously anticipated 0.25% drop. Those in the market to purchase a home or refinance and consolidate higher interest rate debt such as credit cards may have a key opportunity to take advantage of this market. Remember, markets can change on a Whim so exercise caution when making investment and financial decisions. Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions relative to mortgage decisions you might be considering, but remember I am only both State and Federally licensed in California. For other states, please reach out to your trusted local lender. #bls #jobs #unemploymentrate #mortgagemarketnews #mortgageintheknow Courtesy of MBS Highway

September showed the slowest pace of private sector job growth since January 2021, with large businesses driving the way. Annual pay growth for both job-stayers and job-changers slowed as well. The Fed is looking for clear signs that the job market is softening as they consider further rate hikes. All eyes on the big BLS jobs report tomorrow as it's sure to be a big market mover if the numbers are not on target. #TEGFCU #tegmortgage #adp #job #jobs #mbshighway #mbssocialshare #mortgagemarketnews #mortgageintheknow

Mortgages rates behaving well this morning on the BLS JOBS REPORT for the month of May. Here’s the scoop- More jobs created than expected for June. Forecasts were for 190k, number came in at 206k... remember the +16k here. Revisions... remember last month's big increase that shook the markets? Yeah, well April and May's numbers now revised down by -111k. That certainly washes out the extra 16k from above. This is now a pretty solid pattern... we see a big win for jobs on the headlines, and then quietly dropped by huge numbers the following month. Is this the month that markets catch on? Unemployment came in at 4.1%, higher than expected and higher than last month's 4.0%. However, if brought out three decimal places it was actually 4.054% Average hourly earnings were up 3.9%, the smallest annual gain since 2021 Participation rate (the share of the population that is working or looking for work) rose to 62.6%.

Latest Jobs Report Does Not Help Mortgage Interest Rates The March jobs report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was staggeringly strong at first glance and better than expected. Wage growth was also positive but may not be as good as first glance would suggest. Here are a few bullet points from the MBS Highway analysis: 1. Full-time job numbers actually went down by 6k 2. Part-time jobs blew up by 691K. This is shocking and not a sign of strength 3. Jobs numbers may have increased but employed people not so much. Because of part time job increases many people appear to be working multiple jobs. 4. The above point is born out by actual number of people employed grew by 498k as opposed to the 691k job increase 5. These numbers, again, are much higher than the direct employer survey done by ADP The markets, and economists, appear to be questioning the BLS numbers more. Rates moved up but not as significantly as we would expect from this report. As I posted in an earlier article there are serious questions being raised by experts about how the BLS numbers have diverged from other metrics in the last couple years. Bottom line is this report, and other indications of strength in the economy will likely postpone any Federal Reserve rate cuts and keep mortgage rates from moving lower in to any significant degree. #mortgageinterestrates #mortgagerates #mortgageadvisor #mortgagelender #jayverburgmortgageloans #kingcountyrealestate #snohomishcountyrealestate

Once again job growth beat expectations, and it moves the interest rate market in the wrong direction. The BLS report, released this morning showed 216K new jobs were created. However, revisions to the data for October and November shaved 71K jobs from those months combined. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, which was better than the expected rise to 3.8%. Employers added a total of 2.7 million jobs last year, an average of 225K a month. #jobs #tegfcu #tegmortgage #bls #getajob #unemploymentrate #mbshighway #mbssocialshare #mortgagemarketnews #mortgageintheknow

Job growth beat expectations once again in December, with the BLS reporting 216K new jobs were created. However, revisions to the data for October and November shaved 71K jobs from those months combined. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, which was better than the expected rise to 3.8%. Employers added a total of 2.7 million jobs last year, an average of 225K a month. #economy #jobs #homebuying #mortgage

Mortgages rates behaving well this morning on the BLS JOBS REPORT for the month of May. Here’s the scoop- More jobs created than expected for June. Forecasts were for 190k, number came in at 206k... remember the +16k here. Revisions... remember last month's big increase that shook the markets? Yeah, well April and May's numbers now revised down by -111k. That certainly washes out the extra 16k from above. This is now a pretty solid pattern... we see a big win for jobs on the headlines, and then quietly dropped by huge numbers the following month. Is this the month that markets catch on? Unemployment came in at 4.1%, higher than expected and higher than last month's 4.0%. However, if brought out three decimal places it was actually 4.054% Average hourly earnings were up 3.9%, the smallest annual gain since 2021 Participation rate (the share of the population that is working or looking for work) rose to 62.6%.