Heading back from Panama where I spent most of the past five weeks, the election was yesterday. I have some observations on the results, the voting patterns, and how campaigns are run. This first post is about the background of the national race, the next tomorrow will be about the major mayoral races and results, and the day after will be about the mechanics of the campaigns. Panama has elections every five years where they elect everything on the same day, President, Diputados (MPs), Mayors, and local Councilors. Most candidates run as members of parties, but you can also get on the ballot as an independent by collecting enough signatures, there are coalitions of independents (including one increasingly formal quasi-party), candidates can run for more than one party or for a party and also as an independent, in the latter scenarios the same candidate appears on the ballot more than once. The incumbent PRD (left) government was very unpopular, the theme of mining was important but also governments in Panama tend to wear out their welcome, no government has been reelected in the modern period. They candidate was incumbent vicepresident Gaby Carrizo. The two traditional centre-right parties, CD and PAN, were running in a coalition with CD leader and 2019 runner up Romulo Roux as the presidential candidate. Outside of the three traditional parties there were three more personalist campaigns. New party RM founded by former CD President Ricardo Martinelli, former PRD President Martin Torrijos took over the defunct Popular Party, and Ricardo Lombana, the 3rd place candidate from 2019 formalized his movement into a new party MOCA. Also on the ballot were Zulay Rodriguez, an eccentric and populist PRD Diputada (my favourite quote from the campaign, when she totally failed to respect the rules of a debate, her response to the media the next day was "They knew what I'm like, why did they invite me?" and then she showed up outside the office of the opponent who antagonized her with a megaphone to talk trash about him) and two other minor candidates, one left and one right. Martinelli was the early frontrunner, with huge polling leads, he attempted to take over his old party, CD, and force them into a coalition with his new party, RM, with the support of about 75% of the CD Diputados, but he failed to do so and Romulo Roux won the CD primary against the Martinelli candidate. Later, Martinelli was disqualified for corruption and was replaced by his running mate Jose Mulino, after being sentenced to jail, he went to hide in the Nicaragua embassy. Outside of parties and presidential campaigns, there was a quasi-party movement called VAMOS running candidates for Diputado, Mayors, and Councilors, in partial affiliation with MOCA, led by young Diputado Juan Diego Vasquez. Most polls showed Mulino in the lead, but the size of the lead and the main contender was not always consistent, but the top four were consistently Mulino, Roux, Torrijos, Lombana.
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New Post: Singapore to choose new president amid rare political scandals Singaporeans will select a new president on Friday, a vote that will measure public mood at a time when the ruling party, which has been in power for more than six decades, is reeling from a spate of uncommon political scandals.The vote comes as a senior government minister is under investigation by the country’s anti-graft agency, and after the resignation of two senior lawmakers over an affair.The president, who is supposed to be politically neutral, is largely a ceremonial role but it has certain powers that are considered a check on the government, such as the ability to approve anti-corruption investigations and veto certain decisions.The city-state’s government is run by the prime minister, currently Lee Hsien Loong of the People’s Action party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore continuously since 1959.Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a former deputy prime minister who is considered the preferred candidate of the PAP, has been described as the frontrunner. This will be the first contested presidential election in more than a decade.However, Terence Lee, a politics and communications professor at Sheridan Institute of Higher Learning, said he thought many voters would also use the election to send a message ruling party about levels of discontent. There was, he said, “a lot more awareness of the political environment and the need for some balance to be given to the PAP”.This year’s election has been preceded by a discussion of ballot spoiling as a form of protest, added Lee, something he said had not happened so openly in previous votes. It is ultimately unclear how many would actually spoil their ballots, he said. Voting is compulsory in Singapore.The electoral process includes a strict vetting stage that critics say means the candidates are not representative of the public.For candidates from the private sector, there are various requirements, including the need to have served as the chief executive of a company that has, on average, at least S$500m ($370m) shareholders’ equity. Those from the public sector must, for example, have held senior civil service positions.“There have been many who have come to view that this presidential election essentially only favours those who are from within the system and are not welcoming to those who do not belong to this system,” said Felix Tan, associate lecturer and political analyst at Nanyang Technological University.Tharman Shanmugaratnam, is running against Ng Kok Song, 75, the former chief investment officer at sovereign wealth fund GIC, and Tan Kin Lian, 75, a former chief executive of insurer NTUC Income.Tan Kin Lian is viewed by many as being the most independent of the candidates, and has received support from several opposition leaders. But he has faced criticism over past social media comments, including frequent posts about women he describes as “pretty girls”. One post, from 2021, included a close-u
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😕The normalization of impeachment requests in Brazil Brazil has used it twice since becoming a democracy in the 1980s — on both occasions, the ousted leaders periled after losing public support, facing dire economic realities, and being ostracized by Congress. But the political ground has shifted, and requests for impeachment have become trivialized in recent years. And while there is an argument to be made that impeachable offenses have often been committed, these requests have become a tool for political groups to play to the gallery rather than to hold those in power accountable for their actions. 🔗Read more in our full article by Isabela Cruz here 👇 https://lnkd.in/g_fh3NXC #Impeachment #Administration #Congress #Politics
The normalization of impeachment requests in Brazil
https://brazilian.report
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The political atmosphere within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is charged with tension and anticipation as the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting scheduled for April 18, 2024, draws near. This meeting is crucial for determining the future leadership direction of Nigeria’s main opposition party amidst ongoing internal conflicts and power struggles. Stakeholders and members of the PDP are currently embroiled in a fierce debate over who will assume the role of national chairman following the acting tenure of Iliya Damagum. The contention arises from the suspension of the previous chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, with various factions pushing for their preferred candidates to fill the leadership vacuum. A significant call for leadership change emanates from the North Central region. According to reports from Daily Trust, party stakeholders from this region have unequivocally stated their desire for a North Central member to succeed Damagum. This demand aligns with the party’s zoning principle, considering that the suspended Ayu is from Benue State within the same zone, while Damagum hails from Yobe State in the North East. The necessity for a substantive chairman is underscored by concerns over the party’s performance and its readiness to present a formidable challenge in future electoral contests. “The inability of the party to have a substantive national chairman has really impacted the state of the party,” revealed a source to Daily Trust, highlighting a widely shared sentiment within the party that it has underperformed in its role as the opposition. The leadership crisis within the PDP traces back to the aftermath of the 2022 presidential primary election, which not only led to Ayu’s suspension but also saw the party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar, lose to President Bola Tinubu in the 2023 presidential election. Since then, the call for a NEC meeting to address these issues has grown louder, with various factions vying for influence over the party’s structural and leadership decisions. Adding to the chorus for change, a group of House of Representatives members, led by Ikenga Ugochinyere of Imo, has insisted on adherence to the PDP’s zoning formula. They argue that the North Central should retain the chairmanship to fulfill Ayu’s uncompleted term. Amid these calls for leadership renewal, former Governor of Benue State, Gabriel Suswam, has voiced his critique of the party’s current trajectory. Suswam attributes the PDP’s dwindling fortunes to leadership deficiencies, advocating for a comprehensive overhaul to rejuvenate the party’s competitive edge. His remarks reflect a broader concern within the PDP about its future direction and efficacy as Nigeria’s leading opposition party. He said, “PDP is comatose now, and nothing can happen now,” adding that it was regrettable that politicians were now preferring to hold talks with smaller parties and not the PDP. He further said, “Until we provide that
Cracks Widen In PDP As North-Central Insists On Chairmanship
bahdstreetvibes.com.ng
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Should we worry about the latest meeting between former presidents Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Rodrigo Roa Duterte? Of what consequence if RRD accepts GMA's 'invitation' to 'return' to politics? On ANC’s Headstart, I shared my thoughts on these questions with Katrina Domingo. I can think of several rasons why it would make sense for Arroyo and Duterte to tag team, potentially against President Marcos Jr. (or even UniTeam). First, they do have a history of working together successfully. Aside from briefly serving as House Speaker, Arroyo was also adviser to Digong. Digong sought Arroyo's advice from time to time when he was president. Arroyo, in turn, is grateful to FPRRD for helping her be acquitted from plunder. FPGMA was arrested during Noynoy's time, only to be released barely a month after Digong became president. That's what I would call a good relationship! In fact, Arroyo spent some time as party member of the Duterte-chaired PDP-Laban for several years (2017-2020) before returning to her home party LAKAS-CMD. FPGMA to then PRRD: "Most of all, I thank you that when you became president, you provided the atmosphere in which the court had the freedom to acquit me of the trumped-up charges of my successor and your predecessor, so that the court voted 11-4 in my favor...". Second, an Arroyo-Duterte election coalition would be formidable. The 2025 midterm elections is shaping up to be a contest between administration factions. If not the opposition, their coalition can potentially threaten the dominance of whichever faction Bongbong will support. And I can also imagine all the Duterte-allied Senator reelectionists praying very hard to get Digong himself on the 2025 Senate ticket. Without him, the re-election of Dela Rosa, Go, Tolentino isn't a guarantee. But a Digong candidacy will make it easy for them remobilize support of the Duterte constituency. But this, probably, will be the greatest gift that Arroyo and Duterte can give to the opposition (and the country). By throwing their weight against Marcos Jr. and dividing the administration votes, they make it possible for opposition candidacies to be more competitive numbers-wise. And finally, their considerations may not be purely domestic. I can imagine Arroyo and Digong, given their cozy relationships with Beijing, to be disappointed with Bongbong's pivot to the US. RRD did criticize EDCA expansion and warned us that Beijing told him that it may be disastrous for the Philippines. There is always red money available to be spent on undermining pro-US foreign policy. On another note, who aside from China can Digong run to if the ICC trial proceeds? All speculations, definitely. But what is certain is that a brewing Arroyo-Duterte coalition would not be good for the country in the long-run. We can't keep replacing one reactionary faction for another, all working hard against all hopes of change and reform.
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Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, is gearing up for a legal confrontation with President Bola Tinubu. According to Vanguard, El-Rufai, amid allegations labeling him a security risk, seeks to vindicate himself in court and simultaneously brace for a political showdown affecting the president’s potential re-election bid in 2027. This looming battle traces back to the Tinubu administration’s controversial decision to exclude El-Rufai from ministerial office due to alleged security concerns, a move that has sparked significant public and political discourse. El-Rufai’s recent activities, including engagements with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and opposition figures, signal his growing alignment with political dissent. Despite his pivotal contributions to Tinubu’s presidential campaign, El-Rufai, who initially expressed a desire to take a break in academia, was persuaded to contribute to the government’s energy sector revival plans. Drawing on his experience from the Bureau for Public Enterprises and the energy reforms under former President Olusegun Obasanjo, El-Rufai began laying groundwork for his ministerial role, only to be unexpectedly sidelined during the Senate’s screening process over security clearance issues. The decision stunned many political observers, considering El-Rufai’s influential role in rallying Northern governors’ support for Tinubu and his instrumental actions in the latter’s electoral success in key Southwestern states. A senior government official from one of the Southwest states on the condition of anonymity said, “He played a key role in funding us in my state and I can tell this because I was personally involved.” Beside the significant contribution as attested by the official from the Southwest State, El-Rufai in the twilight qaof the Muhammadu Buhari administration also shocked many with his decision to, along with others challenge the Federal Government over the naira redesign project of the federal government. Defending why he opposed the Buhari government on the naira redesign policy, El-Rufai had claimed it was meant to instigate the polity against the APC by those around the former president who failed in their bid to stop Tinubu from getting the presidential ticket. He said, “They also sought to achieve any one or more of the following objectives: create a nationwide shortage of cash so that citizens are incited to vote against APC candidates across the board resulting in massive losses for the Party in all the elections.” However, despite his stellar role in helping Tinubu to power, a source close to El-Rufai disclosed that the camp of the former governor believed that it was wrong for him to have been so publicly humiliated and to have been tagged a security risk. One of the confidants of the former governor told Saturday Vanguard, “You think Mallam will allow this tag to abide on him? I can assure you that he is going to clear his name in court. “El-Rufai
El-Rufai Prepares To Fight Tinubu In Two Courts
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🟢 UPDATE! Our #2024ElectionGuide features new content: “Mexico’s Presidency Depends on the Congressional Race” by our Acting Director, Lila Abed! 🇲🇽 “While most of the attention is rightfully placed on the presidential race, the composition of Mexico’s next Congress will dictate much of what the next president will be able to achieve during her six-year term. Attaining a supermajority is key for the future success of the next president, whomever that may be. The next Congress will begin on September 1st, exactly one month before the next president takes office. If Morena can secure a supermajority (334/500 deputies, 96/128 senators), the president would have 30 days to pass as many of his reforms as possible. Perhaps the most important and alarming for Mexico’s democracy is a judicial reform that aims for judges to be elected by popular vote, including Supreme Court justices. Among AMLO’s other legislative ambitions is to pass a bill that would dissolve independent agencies that have served as watchdog organizations, such as those that regulate telecommunications (IFT), access to the energy market (CRE), and to government information (INAI). He will most likely also attempt to pass an electoral and security reform, in addition to strengthening the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), among others.” Stay informed on what is at stake in Mexico’s most significant electoral cycle! 💡 https://lnkd.in/e9qbr6mc #Mexico #2024Elections #CongressionalRace #JudicialReform #PlanC #ConstitutionalReforms #Democracy #ChecksAndBalances
Mexico’s Presidency Depends on the Congressional Race
wilsoncenter.org
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Mexico Institute - Wilson Center | Lawyer: LL.M. (US), JD (Mexico) | North America Enthusiast | Legal Translator
🇲🇽 This must-read piece by Lila Abed offers crucial arguments of why we should pay close attention to #Mexico's #congressional #race this upcoming June 2nd. Simply put, the outcome will shape the country's future for decades to come! #UsMxStakeholders #2024Elections #Democracy Stay informed on Mexico’s latest developments with ➡️ Wilson Center | Mexico Institute
🟢 UPDATE! Our #2024ElectionGuide features new content: “Mexico’s Presidency Depends on the Congressional Race” by our Acting Director, Lila Abed! 🇲🇽 “While most of the attention is rightfully placed on the presidential race, the composition of Mexico’s next Congress will dictate much of what the next president will be able to achieve during her six-year term. Attaining a supermajority is key for the future success of the next president, whomever that may be. The next Congress will begin on September 1st, exactly one month before the next president takes office. If Morena can secure a supermajority (334/500 deputies, 96/128 senators), the president would have 30 days to pass as many of his reforms as possible. Perhaps the most important and alarming for Mexico’s democracy is a judicial reform that aims for judges to be elected by popular vote, including Supreme Court justices. Among AMLO’s other legislative ambitions is to pass a bill that would dissolve independent agencies that have served as watchdog organizations, such as those that regulate telecommunications (IFT), access to the energy market (CRE), and to government information (INAI). He will most likely also attempt to pass an electoral and security reform, in addition to strengthening the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), among others.” Stay informed on what is at stake in Mexico’s most significant electoral cycle! 💡 https://lnkd.in/e9qbr6mc #Mexico #2024Elections #CongressionalRace #JudicialReform #PlanC #ConstitutionalReforms #Democracy #ChecksAndBalances
Mexico’s Presidency Depends on the Congressional Race
wilsoncenter.org
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HUGE POLITICAL BATTLE IN THE APC By: Sheku Osman Swaray The All People's Congress (APC) is one of the two major political parties in Sierra Leone, the APC has been the main opposition party in Sierra Leone since 4th April 2018. Sierra Leoneans have started asking questions about the eligibility and the right candidates deserved to rule and led the party to the next presidential General elections. The battle is between Dr. Samura Kamara, Chief Alhaji Samsumana, Hon. Chericoco, and Jagaban. The battle among these four candidates is alarming who is capable of leading? Dr. Samura Kamara has attempted twice as flagberer and cannot succeed. Today the same samura Kamara has been intending to contest and led for the next flagberer in 2028, my question is, will Samura Kamara be able to bring change to the expectations of Sierra Leoneans? Or does he have hidden intentions? , now Hon. Chernor Ramadan Maju Bah AKA Chericoco once a running mate and former MP also intending to rule the party and the nation, is Chericoco ready to lead the nation with fear? We are also seeing Chief Sam Sumana willing to contest as the next flagberer, he was the former Vice president that was sacked later leaving the APC party and formed another party, is Sam Sumana a true leader for the nation? We are also hearing the new title Jabagan is interested in leading as flagberer, is Jagaban capable of managing this nation well with the expectations of citizens? Meanwhile , All of these names coming up are they forced to reckon with one way or the other , there is no better choice for the APC than these popular candidates? It only comes off that sierra Leoneans do forget too soon! We are quick to forget but care to twist the truth when it is about a person we favour for obvious reasons even if it is without merit. It must be emphasized that Samura has led many government institutions what are the developmental things he does for the people of this nation? Chericoco is a former opposition leader in parliament and served as a lawmaker for the three uninterrupted terms, what improvement and legacy did he leave for his people? Chief Sam Sumana former Vice president did he make any change doing his tenure? And Jabagan what facilities and readiness does he have for the nation what has he developed upon all his money? As stated early, when it's too soon for sierra Leoneans to forget we should be rinsed of the trends since 2014 to 2017, what infrastructure has these people done physically on their own for the betterment of this country? We should ask them how many lives they have improved for the past years. Or do they just want to be given the power and turn their back like others and make themselves rich and leave the masses in poverty? We have to be wise and make better decisions for the betterment of our nation.
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The widely anticipated DeSantis-Haley debate is just a day away! Followed next week by the Republican presidential caucuses in Iowa! Try to contain your excitement. Here are some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets concerning government and politics: - Something less than 200,000 Iowans will participate in the Republican presidential caucus next week. It is a state with less than one percent of the nation’s population and its demographics are hardly representative of the United States. Interesting fact: the winner of the Republican caucus in Iowa has won the party nomination in less than half of the elections dating back to 1972. - Iowa Democrats, after the fiasco of their 2020 caucus, have changed to a mail-in voting process and will select their convention delegates in March. - House Democrats, undisputed by Republicans, have issued a report indicating that the Trump Organization was paid $7.8 million by foreign countries, mainly China and Saudi Arabia, in the four years of the Trump presidency. The emolument clause of the Constitution is there to prohibit such things, but heck, what’s the Constitution among Republicans? That money does not include Jared Kushner parlaying his Middle East connections to produce $2 billion for his personal businesses, nor Eric and Donald Jr.
Some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets
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The assassination attempt on Trump: too ugly for ever-polarized 21st century democracies. 1. In July 2022, Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister of Japan and a serving legislator of the country was shot to death. It happened while he was delivering a speech in the run-up to the elections. He was one of my favourite Asian politicians. 2. May this year, the prime minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, was fatally shot in an assassination attempt. He was shot five times and was only fortunate to have survived. 3. In the just-ended French elections, security authorities had to put extraordinary measures to tackle rising physical attacks on politicians during the political campaigns. 4. French politicians were attacked by people who disagreed with them on ideology and policies. Shinzo Abe was also killed by a man who "disagreed" with his policies. Yes, the Slovak Prime minister was almost murdered by someone who disagreed with his "populist" politics. 5. And so what? 6. Yesterday’s assassination attempt on former President Trump, is another low for what is expected of stable democracies. While more is yet to emerge on the current issue, I do not doubt that the shooter disagreed with Mr. Trump's politics. 7. While studying for my first degree in political science there was one definition of politics that said, "Politics is conflict and its resolution". It was one of my favourites because it summarised a complex subject. 8. "Conflict" in this context did not mean macabre exchanges and assassinations. It meant civil disagreements between different groups and individuals over the direction of a state. "Resolution" here means how these legitimate differences are reconciled through established processes and "safe" discourse to produce the best outcomes. 9. Elections, campaigns, party primaries, congressional hearings and all other things that legally happen in a democracy are part of the effort by citizens committed to democratic principles to "resolve" legitimate "conflicts". 10. The use of violence to resolve internal political questions has no place in democracies.. It is for this reason that states that are engulfed in protracted violence with no political solution in sight are called “failed states”. 11. That said, it takes enormous responsibility on the part of the privileged few who are fortunate to lead democratic institutions such as political parties, state institutions and other organisations to ensure a stable democracy devoid of political violence. 12. For some time, I have been amazed by the levels of half-truths and blatant lies that are disseminated in countries that are known to be stable democracies. Some politicians have exploited false news to their advantage. Some elites who should know better spread them. 13. These have led to the dangerous polarisation of many systems which is producing macabre results. 14. Regardless, there is no justification for political violence. #democracy #usa
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2moHi Jim, I appreciate the comprehensive report and insights on the recent elections in Panama, thanks for sharing.