John Cowgill’s Post

𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗔𝗜’𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗲𝗱. Various sources (including the recent Emergence Capital “Beyond Benchmarks report”) estimate OpenAI with ~70-80% market share of LLM deployments today, with Google Gemini a distant second at ~10%. We’re <2 years since ChatGPT launched the LLM era, and I thought it would be interesting to compare this to other platform shifts at a similar point in history and how it evolved over time. 𝗡𝗲𝘁𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗼𝘀𝗮𝗶𝗰 𝟬.𝟵 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟰. By 1996, Netscape had 86% of the web browser market share, with Internet Explorer at 10%. But by 2004 (and many lawsuits later), IE had 94% market share. The battle was far from over though--30 years later, Chrome dominates with 65% market share, Safari sits second at 20%, and the successors to IE (Edge) and Netscape (Mozilla) own just 5% and 2.8%! 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝘃𝗲 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗣𝗵𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗤𝟮 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟳. And by Q2 2009, the leading mobile operating system by units shipped globally was....Symbian at 38%. By Q2 2011 (4 years after iPhone), Symbian was still leader in mobile OS with market share at 32% and iOS / Android each at ~20%. But 10 years later (2017), no mobile OS other than Android or iOS had >1% market share. 𝗔𝗪𝗦 𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗘𝗖𝟮 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟴. By 2010, AWS still had <10% of the IaaS market, which was fragmented with legacy vendors like AT&T, Verizon, Rackspace, and Terramark noted as “leaders” in the Gartner 2010 IaaS magic quadrant! AWS market share grew rapidly from this point and peaked in 2019 at ~33%. Today AWS still owns ~1/3rd of the market, with Azure second at 25% and GCP third at 11%. None of these analogies are perfect, but it's instructive to look at how each played out and what it could mean for the future of AI. In the browser wars, the early leader (Netscape) lost to incumbents who had 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 (𝗠𝗦𝗙𝗧, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲) 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗮 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 (𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗲). The risks to OpenAI on both of these fronts are obvious. In cloud infrastructure, 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗲 made it impossible for any but the biggest tech companies in the world (AMZN, MSFT, Google) to compete. And in the case of mobile, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗮 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 (iOS) and Google 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 (Android). How the “LLM wars” will ultimately play out is anyone’s guess, but looking at past platform shifts, it’s notable how little we knew 2 or even 4 years in about who the dominant players would ultimately be. #startups #ai #innovation

Proud of my step dad Paul Salamanca for being named Acting Dean of the University of Kentucky J. David Rosenberg College of Law. Way to go Paul!

What are the big narratives in cybersecurity right now? I'm crowdsourcing a list of "things we all hear" for a deeper data-driven examination of myth versus reality. A starter list: 1. There is increased pressure from CISO's to consolidate vendors and serious "tool fatigue" 2. CISO's are being asked to do more with less, budgets are facing real pressure and deal cycles are elongating...but the pressure from CISO's from board level to keep organization secure is higher than ever 3. Cybersecurity M&A is super hot and only going to get hotter 4. Everyone is tired of talking about AI in security, but simultaneously it seems like the only thing people are talking about is AI (some serious "no one goes to that restaurant anymore, it's too crowded" vibes) 5. Cloud security remains a top priority and thorny, unsolved problem for vast majority of enterprises, despite it being a consensus "top 3" priority for at least the past 3 years 6. Data security is getting renewed attention and emerging as a consensus top 3 priority 7. The cybersecurity skills gap remains a pressing issue with no relief in sight 8. Spear phishing attacks are rising in priority with attackers leveraging generative AI to launch attacks at a new level of sophistication and scale 9. Cyber warfare and state-sponsored cyber attacks are increasing in frequency and will intensify as we get closer to election season 10. GDPR was just the beginning: state and federal governments are implementing more stringent regulations in all aspects of security and compliance--UK Product Security and Telecommunications Act, PCI 4.0, new reporting rules from SEC / FTC on incident reporting, AI regulations being discussed in EU, California, and US Government....regulatory overhead will further strain security orgs that are already stretched thin. What else is top of mind for you? #cybersecurity #startups #infosec #datasecurity #CISO

Proud of the team at Parallel Domain on this game-changing product release democratizing simulation-ready digital twins with synthetic data manipulation baked in. Check out the video to have your 🤯 and reach out to learn more! Thanks Michael Nuñez and VentureBeat for covering!

The team Kepler Communications Inc. announced an extraordinary technical milestone today--demonstrating optical inter-satellite link and moving terabytes of data across their first two pathfinder satellites. Optical will be the future of satellite communications and Kepler is leading the charge. Satellite operators--join #TheKeplerNetwork and experience what true "internet in space" can unlock for you! https://lnkd.in/gRbiG6xq