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Rental Housing Economist (Apartments, SFR), Speaker and Author

Well, it's finally official -- and it's yet another signal that investors aren't going to find newer vintage, well-located multifamily in the bargain bin. KKR is buying 5,200 units from Lennar's Quarterra brand for $2.1 billion. Between this deal and Blackstone/AIR and other smaller acquisitions, it appears cap rates for Class A apartments are settling in the low 5% range. KKR has publicly signaled its interests in multifamily for months, most notably with a research paper published in April that concluded 2024 marked a "once-in-a-decade opportunity" to "buy high-quality properties below replacement cost while achieving attractive long-term yields." Are they right? Time will tell, but the big bet centers around themes I've written about extensively here: Demand tailwinds are firmly intact, while apartment supply is peaking now before dropping precipitously by 2H'2025 and into 2026-27 -- potentially ushering in a rebound if the economy remains in solid shape. How do deals like this work in today's environment of higher interest rates and no/minimal rent growth? There were three key comments in KKR's April report that might shed some clues on KKR's strategy here: 1) Conviction/ability to underwrite short-term softness and retain flexibility on hold periods. "Owners who can carry their investments through the next two years are poised to benefit from sustained structural demand and a pronounced shortage of new supply starting in 2026," KKR wrote in April. 2) Conviction on structural strength of demand fundamentals (and long-term outlook as supply drops off). "The secular trend is toward more demand, not less" and "Performance has traditionally remained stable through economic cycles." (KKR) 3) More equity, less reliance on debt at today's higher rates. "Scaled players will see opportunities first and have the freedom to deploy without much leverage, an essential component to success in this environment." (KKR) We're still early in the new cycle here, but I think more of these types of deals are coming. There's capital willing to buy well-located Class A at these prices... and probably a lot more that would like to jump in, but need/want cap rates to jump another 50-100 bps. #multifamily #apartments #CRE https://lnkd.in/g8BCFTrA

Exclusive | KKR Makes Its Biggest Foray Into Apartments, Betting on Rising Rents

Exclusive | KKR Makes Its Biggest Foray Into Apartments, Betting on Rising Rents

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Snehann Kapnadak

Associate, Private Real Estate at CenterSquare

1mo

Curious to hear how KKR (and you) think about vacancy risk in the Class A space. If/when there's an economic slowdown, tenants tend to move out of Class A spaces into more affordable/workforce housing. Given the rumors of an upcoming slowdown in 2025/2026, do you think buying Class A is "the move" right now?

Sam McCone

Managing Partner at McCone Properties | 30+ Years in Dubai and 13 Years in Real Estate | Helping Investors Make Better Property Decisions in Dubai

1mo

Absolutely, KKR's strategic moves in the multifamily market show foresight amid challenges like higher interest rates and minimal rent growth.

Sharon Riddle

I seek business owners and higher earning professionals for Multifamily RE.| Real Estate Investor since 2005 |Partner at Excalibre Investments of Texas, LLC.| Guest on Select Podcasts|Author

1mo

A Class does have the high earners. Now... is the KKR strategy well timed in the markets?

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Jie (Vincent) Chen

Quantitative Developer at Vanguard

1mo

Just curious how to determine the reasonable cap rates under this kind of environment

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Wes Tashley

Commodore at The Bonnie Blue

1mo

Isn't it a bit ironic that the "growth" in multi family seemingly overlays perfectly with opening up of the border in 2012 thru 2024? I mean what happens if that steady stream of 1.5 million renters were to stop? Or 75-80% of the current undocumented were deported? Anything for a dollar....KKR, BlackRock, and all the rest. To hell with anything but their return. Oh and let's don't leave out the truly demonic, SF Residential Leasing market that is completely ruining the suburbs and opportunities for first time buyers. I'd say the KKR and Blackrock investments are pretty good bets that your white house remains The Stonewall Inn annex.

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Gib Irons

Helping Accredited Investors Passively Invest in Real Estate | Founder @ Irons Equity | Father & husband (and surfer & fisherman, but my wife told me to write that last.)

1mo

Investors are banking on long-term demand and supply dynamics despite current economic uncertainties and interest rate pressures.

Justin Goodin

I Help Busy Professionals Create Passive Income With Multifamily Development🏖| Founder of Goodin Development | Expert CRE Underwriter

1mo

This proves my point. It's a good time to buy or sell in any market cycle. Larger institutions like KKR are still actively buying and looking for good deals, despite where interest rates are. Long term outlook of commercial multifamily real estate is very positive 💪

Marc Kuhn

Real Estate Investor and CEO at MAK Capital | Luxury Storage Developer | 200+ CRE units | Financial Freedom Mentor

1mo

Interesting insights into the multifamily market dynamics, thanks for sharing.

Drew Breneman

Helping Family Offices, Fund Managers, & High-Net-Worth Individuals Protect & Grow Capital With Our Multifamily Investment Opportunities

1mo

It's clear that investors like KKR are making strategic moves in the multifamily market, despite current challenges like higher interest rates and minimal rent growth.

Walter Bialas

Real estate strategy & CRE story shaper

1w

$404,000 per DU. That's a big number, which translates into a big monthly rent. 🤔

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