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Energy transition optimist │ Director, European Programmes at Regulatory Assistance Project │ Research Associate at Oxford and Cambridge Universities │ LinkedIn Top Voice │ FEI │ FRSA

For months Germany has been in a heated debate about a new heat law. It was supposed to stop the installation of new oil & gas boilers in homes by 01 January 2024. The coalition government now agreed on a way forward but it is a less ambitious policy. Let me explain. 1/ Key provision in heat law is that all new heating systems installed have to use >65% renewable energy. This goes back to the coalition treaty from 2021 which says: "By 1 January 2025 every newly installed heating system is to be operated on the basis of 65% renewable energy." 2/ This provision was brought forward after the invasion of Ukraine to 01 January 2024. Initially there was little debate outside of the energy and heating sector about this change. 3/ But this changed in early 2023. Especially the biggest German tabloid BILD ran article after article attacking the proposals coining the term "Heizhammer". Suddenly the topic was on the front pages of German newspapers and the subject of talk shows. 4/ Junior coalition partner Free Democratic Party (FDP) identified the heat law as an opportunity to differentiate itself (elections forthcoming in several German states). They asked for technology openness & using carbon pricing as the main instrument instead. 5/ Under pressure the German government department responsible for the heat law added several amendments and exemptions summarised by me in this article. https://lnkd.in/ezTvPaED 6/ So what has changed? The new draft guidelines for the coalition to further change the heat law can be found here: https://lnkd.in/e8Fb3wcb 7/ The heat law will initially only apply to new buildings in areas of new residential developments. 8/ In existing buildings (and in new buildings outside of new development areas) new oil or gas heating systems may continue to be installed until the municipality has submitted a heat plan. 9/ The Heat Planning Act draft states for a deadline of 2026 for large cities (>100,000 people) and 2028 for towns (>10,000 people). The new agreement now states that aim is to have "Germany-wide" heat planning in place "by 2028 at the latest". 10/ This means that the law effectively only comes into force by 2028 if heat planning is fully operational by then across Germany - a delay of 4 years for those homes not covered by heat planning between now & 2028. 11/ If local heat planning foresees hydrogen to be used in the gas grid new gas boilers will continue to be allowed to be installed but unclear what exactly is required from the gas network operators at this stage. 12/ In summary: new agreement a) further complicates an already complicated heat law, b) lowers ambition by pushing out the phase-out date by several years & c) potentially waters down more stringent provisions around hydrogen use. https://lnkd.in/euMf9fHn

Thermal turnaround: German government settles dispute over heating law

Thermal turnaround: German government settles dispute over heating law

politico.eu

Dinos Gonatas

Dinos Gonatas, Consulting Leader

1y

Thx for informative thread. 1. Not sure what it means for a boiler to be using 65% renewable energy- does it mean a boiler has to be on 65% hydrogen? Crazy… 4. Economists are mostly unified that carbon pricing is a more efficient & rational way to set policy than mandates so FDP seems on solid ground here 11. Hydrogen… mostly crazy. Can someone post its economics not wishful thinking? In Europe are efficient heat pump hydronic boilers available? In the US heat pumps exclusively generate warm air. I have a heat pump water heater (output 120F) whose efficiency would decline if redesigned for hydronic heating (output more like 90 C). Otherwise it’s a big lift to retrofit a place without ducts.

Morten Pindstrup

International Chief Engineer at Energinet

1y

How is the 65% renewable energy measured? Is it every hour? On average per day/month/year?

Amitava Roy

CEO, Founder, Engas Global Ltd

1y

If Germany converts their curtailed 100% wasted electricity into hydrogen because batteries are worse for longer duration inter seasonal energy storage due to leakage current and high capital cost, then this cheap green hydrogen can be used as vehicle fuel for heavy goods vehicles, and to displace natural gas at CCGT plants, and some of this hydrogen can also be used for heating, apart from making fertiliser, and methanol, pharmaceutical and metallurgical products too. The RETAIL price of roadside hydrogen in Germany is fairly competitive than roadside EV charging, and the future price of green hydrogen is likely to be far cheaper than today. See below for more https://www.linkedin.com/posts/amitava-roy-58831a1a_h2live-hydrogen-stations-in-germany-europe-activity-7070401165418471424-u3iX?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

Paul Hughes

Director Global PR, Influencers & Partnerships at Sennheiser Consumer

1y

There are lots of local legal barriers too. I had Octopus Energy come to my house near Munich last week to check the viability of switching to a heat pump. But they said my house was unsuitable as I live in a middle-terraced house and Bavarian law stipulates that you can't install a heat pump unit within 3m of your neighbour's house. This meant a very limited area to install the outside unit and the Octopus engineer told me it wouldn't work. In addition, I also had two solar panel installation companies assess my roof for solar panels and due to another local law that stipulates that you can't install solar panels within 1.5m or so from your neighbours house (fire regulation) and the fact we have windows in the roof, there wasn't enough surface area to make it viable.

It sounds like a good idea to have a plan, rather than simply throw households in at the deep end.

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Amitava Roy

CEO, Founder, Engas Global Ltd

1y

Can you shift the blame on politics/ local elections when Germany wanted to be technology neutral and relying on carbon pricing. This is a welcome step. The UK had to curtail nearly £880M worth of electricity in the past year as nowhere we could store such a vast amount, either as electricity or as heat storage. Germany is also going face the same dilemma in the future. The UK'S electricity grid is significantly greener ( in terms of CO2 emission/ kWh) than Germany's electricity grid, about which many people don't appreciate this reality. If Germany also adopts 70-80% electricity in the energy mix from intermittent wind and solar, then any lull in wind during Oct- Dec means Germany is back to CCGT/ coal again. This is because, the required size of hot water tank to go alongwith individual heat pumps for a typical 3bed house over 2 weeks, will occupy the entire back garden to be filled with large insulated hot water tanks. Alternatively curtail electricity can be converted into H2, & delivered by pipeline when needed to use in existing gas H2 boilers, or used as fuel. This is about system resilience and preventing 100% wastage. I don't believe COP3 will be any better than preventing 100% wastage via H2.

Jens Henrik Møllgaard Larsen

Projektleder, Københavns Universitet, Campus Vedligehold (CAS)

1y

Classical History when you use the stick instead of the carrot. Generally speaking the stick will not bring us the right Climate solusions we need. We have 100 of sticks and 100 of carrots. We have to use the best carrots for the right purpose and some few times a stick. Use it wicely.

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Andrea Lindblom

Communicating to accelerate climate action

1y

d) might raise legal questions - how would “Germany-wide" heat planning work in a federal state? (Not a constitutional law expert myself by any means, but somehow feel this has a strange ring to it) Anyway: Thanks for a great, informative 🧵!

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Glen Ryan … an on topic post related to your other post today.

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