Incumbent governments everywhere are falling out of favour with angry electorates. In June, the European Parliament elections saw a collapse of incumbent party votes in almost all countries except Italy. India’s Narendra Modi won re-election but lost his majority and now leads a coalition. Our own federal Liberals, trailing the Conservatives by 15-20 points for a year, suffered a surprise byelection loss in a Toronto seat they’d held for three decades. American Democrats, already behind in key battleground states, are in a tizzy after a dreadful debate performance raised doubts about President Joe Biden’s fitness for office. That incumbent governments are floundering should surprise no one. This week it’s happening in the U.K. and France. This fall and next year it may happen in the U.S. and Canada. You mess up economically and voters punish you. To paraphrase Bill Clinton adviser James Carville: It’s almost always the economy, stupid.
I support you observation, and perspective on the economy being the biggest deciding issue of change. But there were a number of G20 Leaders indoctrinated; and subscribing to the WEF ideology. Of Globalism, redistribution of wealth, population, mass immigration; or migration, poorly managed boarders. Also pandering to 3-5% of the population, and not being decisive with enforcement of Law and Order, Civil Liberty, Lawless Protests Racial Violence. Completely ignoring the Civilians or Nation they led; Governing by populism. Versus being beholding to their Nation, and Citizens. The National Population who elected them. That coupled with the economic fall out of these policies, Environmental Panick; Over spending on policies not costed out or supported by fiscal budgets with Fudiciary realism. You have the exact same climate in England, France, Italy, Canada, the United States! It is time for a reset from leftism to right -centre right responsible governance.
Great post Jack. It all comes down to this: the policies of the so called "establishment" at present are failing economies and in turn their electorates.... High inflation, backed up everything with policies of 'open borders' where domestic infrastructures' capacities are exceeded, debts increase to fund this policy at the expense of taxpayers....In turn, interest rates have risen again at the cost of domestic residents now facing every increasing debt servicing charges that were not there under conservative policies that calculated how many people a nation can bring in and not overload the countries' capacity from healthcare to housing..... Then, there is 'climate' policy that has blocked tens of billions in new resource projects that could be creating high paying jobs....Then, there's the liberal response to funding this economic loss with higher capital gains taxes that drive out investment, and jobs.... Then, extrapolate that onto western society and you have a mess....The same playbook failing everywhere...and this is why they will all be voted out.....Their policies are a complete socio-economic failure....
But this is all in response to the same economic conditions by and large. The economic policy response to the COVID crisis was actually quite successful and far preferable to the plans of the out of office parties in these countries if they had their way. Most of the parties poised to win office are promising some variation of austerity, which hampered us after 2008 longer than most of our peers (we were unique in having a recession in 2015) and which the UK is still enduring with a truly stagnant economy and failing public services. If voters don’t like the economy now, just wait until Trump and friends are in charge.
You can only lead voters by the nose for so long. Eventually even they wake up. Unfortunately, it will take years to clean up & repair the damage that has been caused. This started with Jacinda Ardern in NZ. She almost brought the country to it's knees (or flat out, as some would claim). Her close relationship with JT didn't bode well for us and we now see the problems at our door step. Let's hope Canada doesn't suffer the same fate as NZ.
Bob Carter
3w
I’ve been wondering of late, whether the globes voting public has indeed been moving to the Right or whether it simply has been a move away from the incumbent no matter their political stripe. In America - the Dems have been in power for say the last 3 terms of 12 years total. In the UK - a simular length-of-term for the Conservatives. Recalling anecdotally - it seems that governments of similar vintage start believing their own press and do some incredibly stupid things - or at least they are perceived that way by a fickle voting base. That begets change or at least the possible hunger for change. Campaigns of change almost always build around a “ blame the other guy” platform with little to offer that’s fresh or fully considered. This is why the pendulum swings from One way to the other and seldom results in material improvement. I think this time the situation in the US is different this time. Biden has largely delivered positive results, although not evenly delivered in all areas requiring positive change. Few Presidents ever deliver so consistently. But the fear of Trump and Project 2025 type change just might be enough to return Biden to the Oval Office. Will that be enough?
Aijaz Hassan
3w
Economic issues significantly impact incumbent governments. When economies falter, voters often punish those in power, as seen in various global examples. This sentiment is encapsulated by the phrase, 'It's almost always the economy, stupid,' highlighting the pivotal role of economic performance in political fortunes.
Fred Lazar
3w
One of the beauties of democracy is that every 10 years or so, the electorate gets fed up with the party in power. On the other hand, this suggests that all parties don't know what needs to be done to move their economies forward
Pushing coincidences? Economic policies were not the cause of Sunak's loss, nor the current weakness of Macron. You are clearly politicking, Sir. Connecting dots with very tenuous bases.
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3wThere's one other factor that is coming into play. The incumbent governments in many cases have been pursuing a broader ideological path that is not reflective of the general views of their citizens. This has added to the backlash from voters and causes them to be more comfortable with an alternative that they might otherwise not have been willing to consider. A centrist Liberal or Democrat party that did a much better job of reflecting the will of the silent majority on a broad range of issues would never find themselves in their current positions.