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What would be the Implications of ANC Coalition With DA? An outcome in which no party secured more than a 50% majority might force the ANC to seek coalition partners like DA  and that would be catastrophic. ANC-DA: This coalition might initially create uncertainty among investors due to potential policymaking slowdowns. However, if the collaboration proves effective, we could see the rand outperform our current expectations as DA-led reforms to streamline business regulation (such as pushing to reform the Labour Relations Act and reducing racial quotas) could attract more private investment. Nonetheless, such reforms might spur social unrest, leading to increased volatility of the rand. ANC-DA: Pressure from the DA to implement pro-business reforms and streamline grants – which could support Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s calls to consolidate social spending – should provide room for an uptick in infrastructure investment (in line with the DA’s manifesto). Initiatives to cut bureaucratic hurdles and establish 'one-stop-shops' for small businesses will likely boost fixed investment by making it easier for businesses to operate. ANC-DA: By contrast, an ANC-DA coalition would likely see a more pronounced reduction of the fiscal deficit than we currently forecast, which could help the government to achieve Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's stated goal of greater fiscal consolidation in the February 2025 budget. The DA would increase pressure on the ANC to cut down the number of ministers and streamline grants (particularly disability grants and the social relief of distress grant, according to the DA's manifesto), also likely slowing the adoption of a basic income grant. However, the DA's commitment to avoiding new taxes and adjusting tax brackets for inflation are contrary to the ANC’s efforts to bolster revenues. If they were to form a coalition with the DA, the middle option would become doable − though still very difficult for all involved. This path could easily become insanely difficult for the DA, as missteps could, rather easily, lead to the demise of the party. An ANC-DA coalition is the best possible outcome for this year’s national elections. Yet it would be messy, non-satisfying and ultra-challenging.

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