Bell Bank’s Post

Now is not the time to disregard this chart during what could be the most important earnings season of this business cycle. Corporate earnings are currently at a crucial point within the upper boundary of a 70-year channel and are poised to begin declining, even in the face of unwarranted optimism surrounding the idea of a soft landing. The combination of deglobalization trends, wage pressure, and the rising cost of debt are likely to exert pressure on companies' profit margins, and corporate fundamentals are yet to reflect these issues. Source : https://lnkd.in/dJhwTVQA

Corporate earnings for the second quarter comfortably exceeded expectations, a promising sign for the economic outlook. S&P 500 companies reported profits down 3.8% from a year earlier as earnings season neared completion – much better than the estimates of a 7% drop before it began – with more firms (79%) beating analyst estimates than in any quarter since 2021. The biggest detractors were energy companies, whose profits are anticipated to accelerate in the second half. Read more in our latest #MarketMonitor https://bit.ly/45cTgEv

Corporate earnings grew by 4% compared to the previous year, with nearly 75% of companies reporting earnings that were better than expected. While those that beat rates were more or less in line with historic averages, they also confirmed that corporate America is indeed growing again. Q4 marked the second quarter in a row of improved earnings after three consecutive quarters of earnings declines. We discuss what other trends stood out in this week’s Money with Murphy. To view the video, visit https://lnkd.in/gxmVab9x #FiduciaryAdvisors #401k #403b #MarketUpdate #CorporateEarnings www.fiduciaryadvisors.biz

Promising news for 2024!

Promising News! FactSet searched for the term "recession" in conference call transcripts of all S&P 500 companies that conducted earnings conference calls from December 15, 2023 through March 7, 2024. Of these companies, 47 cited the term "recession" during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter. This number number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61. "In fact, this quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021. After peaking in Q2 2022, the number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls has declined (quarter-over-quarter) for six straight quarters." Looking to source capital for growth or restructuring debt in 2024? Thinking about selling your business within the next 5 years? We can help. Learn more about us at https://lnkd.in/g6iznWWV. #recession #sellingabusiness #sellyourbusiness #equity #debtfinancing

The profit rebound has been more than evident at big public companies, too. With most results in, earnings per share at companies in the S&P 500 look to have risen 7.1% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to London Stock Exchange Group , after slipping 2.8% in the second. The profit gains look likely to continue: Analysts, whose estimates tend to be too dour this far along into a quarter, expect S&P 500 earnings to grow by 5.2% in the fourth quarter.

Fact: dividends paid by U.S. corporations grew 4.5% YoY. In its latest quarterly report on the world’s 1,200 biggest public corporations by market value, Janus Henderson said 98% of U.S. companies surveyed grew or held their payments steady, compared to 89% worldwide. "Most regions and sectors are delivering dividends in line with our expectations. We believe the banking sector in particular will continue to deliver solid growth for the rest of the year, making record payments to shareholders." - Janus Henderson Report.

With ~10% of #sp500 constituents having reported 4Q23 earnings, the blended earnings growth rate has fallen to -1.7%.   This week almost 75 companies, representing a wide variety of sectors, are slated to report, which should provide a more accurate indication of the health of corporate #earnings and the #economy. 🔮 💉💰   Read More: https://lnkd.in/eeNHefmh

For the third quarter, broad S&P 500 Index level corporate earnings growth looks somewhat uneventful, with expectations for -0.3% YoY EPS growth and +1.7% YoY revenue growth. Below the surface however, sector level expectations indicate wide dispersion across industries, highlighting how the current economic environment of slowing consumption and tightening financial conditions is having a divergent impact on a wide range of companies. Read this week's #WeeklyEdge here: https://lnkd.in/e7MuvJtE #NewEdgeWealth

So far this quarter, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates. Why normally “good” news may be concerning for both the corporate and investing worlds. See below for insights from a few of our industry sector leaders.