Is this portfolio commentary, I quickly discuss three items: 1. I take a look at traditional election year patterns for the stock market. 2.I also discuss why I think the probability of a larger conflict has increased from 1.5% to 10% with the passage of the $95 billion package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. 3. I point out that small capitalization stocks are following a traditional recessionary recovery playbook. https://lnkd.in/eTaXbcaT https://lnkd.in/eR3RPJgV #stockmarket #recession
Thanks Allen Gillespie, CFA for your timely discussion topics!
John Sircy
2mo
Insightful!
Serial Innovator, Author, Speaker, and Coach
2mo"2.I also discuss why I think the probability of a larger conflict has increased from 1.5% to 10% with the passage of the $95 billion package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan." While the probability of some conflict may have increased, the probability of a larger conflict is significantly reduced when our adversaries understand we have the ability and willingness to respond. The West did not respond effectively to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, leading Putin to believe he could get away with more in 2022. Our NATO and Asian allies are now on high alert, which diminishes the probability of larger conflict. Peace through Strength.