“Higher for longer” interest rates were supposed to be stocks’ albatross. But since October 2022, rates have climbed with stocks. In our view, this illustrates fear over rates killing stocks is again overblown.
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I help those in or nearing retirement cut through industry gimmicks such as "asset allocation" and reveal how to secure income and grow assets to meet lifestyle needs and leave a lasting legacy to heirs.
Three Pillars of the Rally Updated For several months, we have pushed back against calls for a large, structural decline in stocks based on the idea that there are “Three Pillars” supporting the 2023 rally in stocks and...
Three Pillars of the Rally Update
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Stocks continue to trade in a choppy range after the best seven-month start since 1997. What are some clues that better times could be coming soon? Find out in the latest Weekly Market Update. https://lnkd.in/ghYKERf9
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This Weeks Market Update: Stocks Jump After Inflation Gauge Cools Click below to stay up to date on the market, https://lnkd.in/gaYdrm5j #shieldingyourwealth #marketupdate #stockmarket
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Founder & CEO @ Augment Wealth | Entrepreneur | Portfolio Manager | Macro Thinker | GS, Millenium alum
Stocks vs Bonds Do Stocks really need to fall for bonds to rally? Stocks decompose to EPS times P/E. I guess one means that earnings needs to fall for bonds to rally, which I would agree to. Typically earnings go down when nominal growth comes off strongly towards zero. And IF that happens, certainly bonds would rally and indeed the FED will cut rates. With where nominal GDP is and is going to be next year (by fed estimates) this isn’t likely to happen. In fact EPS for S&P is expected to go strongly over the next 6 month period. Earnings has been a positive surprise from start of the year, obviously driven by the fiscal crazy. Anyone wants to model earnings after a fiscal impulse of 7.5pct year to date during an expansion? Stock P/E are more reflective of mkt discount rates and they have been falling somewhat in line with rise in bond yields. The Index fed P/E of 18 is not really expensive given that growth stocks are at 23-24. The statement is more likely a persistent belief in negative stock bond correlation of last 15 yrs driven by low inflation. The metrics change when inflation goes higher and nominal readings becomes more important then real. Bonds will rally when the fiscal madness stops or the FED decides to accommodate it (which I think will happen soon). Period. Stocks will do what they always do, react to earnings, nominal growth and adjust for changes in discount rate.
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Stocks continue to trade in a choppy range after the best seven-month start since 1997. What are some clues that better times could be coming soon? Find out in the latest Weekly Market Update.
Market Commentary: More Seasonal Choppiness
kanaiwealth.com
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Three Pillars of the Rally Updated For several months, we have pushed back against calls for a large, structural decline in stocks based on the idea that there are “Three Pillars” supporting the 2023 rally in stocks and...
Three Pillars of the Rally Update
jsturniolo.com
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This Weeks Market Update: Stocks Stand Still, Awaiting Fed Click below to stay up to date on the market, https://lnkd.in/guwX9NU9 #shieldingyourwealth #marketupdate #stockmarket
Stocks Stand Still, Awaiting Fed
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Stocks continue to trade in a choppy range after the best seven-month start since 1997. What are some clues that better times could be coming soon? Find out in the latest Weekly Market Update.
Market Commentary: More Seasonal Choppiness
kanaiwealth.com
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Stocks fell again last week, even as yields paused, and overall earnings were solid. Is this simply a market correction or a sign of more trouble ahead? Read more in the Weekly Market Update. https://lnkd.in/gi9xg6Cu #WeeklyMarketCommentary #weeklymarketupdate #weeklyupdate #weeklynews
Market Commentary: How Bad Is It?
equityplanning.com
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I had this silly thought: Can stocks keep rising forever? At first, it seems plausible, but not possible. So, I went ahead and found out that : 1. Not all companies survive; hence, individual stocks might plummet. 2. Major events like a housing crisis lead to temporary decline. 3. In the long run, many stocks tend to go up. It's all about the period we look at. In the short term, like a month, some might decrease, and others might decrease. But over a period of five years, most of them increase. Another point here is that not individual stocks but indices go up. Indices are a collection of stocks. They represent something. For example, Nifty 50 indicates the first 50 companies in the NSE. So, the Nifty 50 will always go up in the long run, despite new companies being added to the Nifty 50 and some leaving it. It seems like a crazy thing, however. Indices always rise. Except during major disruptions. So the answer is YES; stocks do tend to rise forever.
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