Euronews’ Post

Good morning! Today, we discuss the potential impact of the EU Parliament election on the bloc’s deal with Mercosur. Why a rout on the Brazilian real? And the latest inflation figures.

After local elections deliver a heavy blow to the incumbent party, Roger Mark reflects on President Erdoğan’s surprisingly conciliatory tone and apparent ongoing commitment to orthodox policymaking, and considers what this means for fixed income investors. 🔗 https://nty.one/3Wa7uV5 Investment involves risk; losses may be made. Professional investors only. #emergingmarkets #turkey #erdogan #elections #investing #investment

✨The Week Ahead✨ Could the French election yet trigger a crisis for the euro? The market reaction to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally winning the popular vote in round one was maybe more muted than feared – a hung parliament seemed to be the assumption.  Check out the latest Week Ahead episode to find out more from Finalto's Chief Market Analyst, Neil Wilson. 👇 #WeekAhead #MarketCommentary #MarketUpdate #GeneralElections

Although a hung parliament was widely expected in the French elections, a surprise win by the left-wing coalition will cause market concerns ahead of any coalition talks. Unexpectedly, the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) won more seats than any other party with 182 seats, where it was widely projected that Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) would fall short of a majority, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group came in second with 163 seats and the RN alliance securing 143 seats. There would have been far more market instability if we had seen an RN victory, which was probably the cause of the euro trading lower last week. Further widening of risk is anticipated as a hung parliament will struggle to deliver any fiscal consolidation, and there are still some risks related to a potential left-wing government. Although the euro has gained some ground following the higher-than-expected German Trade Balance, the absence of market-moving eurozone data this week and a quiet period for the ECB ahead of its 18 July meeting will keep the euro on the back foot, with all eyes on French political developments.

Poland experienced a significant political shift with the opposition's victory, led by Donald Tusk, in the recent parliamentary elections. The change in power has generated optimism among investors, leading to a surge in Polish assets.  The new government aims to normalize relations with the European Union, unlocking frozen funds and focusing on economic growth. However, challenges lie ahead, including the need to address anti-democratic laws, navigate political barriers, and tackle economic issues.  See what our analysts do expect from Poland and which assets are and are not recommended in the country: https://lnkd.in/dvKP9u9Y #poland #economy #elections #investments

The rise of the far right has changed the political landscape across Europe, but the most affected country is France, following Macron’s surprise election decision. Macron’s risky bet against far-left and far-right parties is not working well for him right now. The elections, which will be held this and next weekend, might cause much more volatile moves for EURUSD.    Read the full article below.  #EURUSD #Forex #FX #FXTrading #BOJ #ECB #EUR #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #Currency #ResistanceLevels #MarketTrends #ForexForecast #MarketOutlook #FTD 

🚨 Klaxon alert Macron calls a snap election in response to a surge in ‘far right’ voting in EU parliamentary elections. Le Pen's National Rally (NR) on the charge. Fundamentally right wing, but economically left wing 🤷♂️ Bearing in mind the 3 conditions that materially change currency markets: 1.     Change in economic fundamentals 2.     Change in interest rates/money supply 3.     Black swan/extreme events This news hits one/maybe two of these. However, will the local vote translate into the national vote? We shall see, but this unquestionably creates uncertainty going forward and will no doubt give markets some jitters. Worth bearing in mind if you're thinking of hedging euros or have large transactions in the pipeline. So stay tuned folks! ws@lucidfinancialmarkets.com