Political uncertainties are set to continue driving market volatility in Europe amid the surprising outcome of the French election on Sunday. Figures and analysis in full: https://lnkd.in/dcfwttBQ #Frenchelections
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After heated political debates on this side of the Atlantic as well, the first round of the French legislative election confirmed the rise of the far-right (33.1%) in a context of high turn-out (67.5%). Markets found reassurances on the small probability that the far-right gets an absolute majority in the French Parliament. #inflation #interestrates #financialmarkets #economy #economicoutlook #keplercheuvreux #Wealthmanagement #frenchelections
Alea Jacta Est
renalco.ch
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The outcome of the EU elections has triggered a rise in risk aversion in Europe in equity, bond, and also FX markets, with President Macron calling snap parliamentary elections for early July. #financialmarkets #economy #economicoutlook #keplercheuvreux #Wealthmanagement #frenchelections #commoncurrency #euro
French Poker
renalco.ch
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The year 2024 would be packed by elections in countries which have a significant economic impact globally. Hence, we can expect potential changes in markets in the times ahead. The following countries will be having elections: TAIWAN, Portugal, Belgium, Croatia, Romania, Austria, RUSSIA, INDIA, MEXICO, SOUTH AFRICA, UNITED STATES, BRITAIN, and VENEZUELA #finance #financialmarkets #2024outlook #economicoutlook https://lnkd.in/gAmXDZzi
How an election-packed 2024 could swing world markets
tbsnews.net
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Markets don’t like surprises. So, the shock decision by French President, Emmanuel Macron, to call a snap election, just a few weeks before the Paris Olympics and a few days after the commemoration of the D-Day landings on the Normandy beaches, triggered an inevitable reaction from investors who already had plenty of news to digest in an event-packed week. Macron’s centrist alliance was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s far-right party in the European Parliament elections. His decision to call a national election raised understandable fears about Europe’s future political direction, prompting a sell-off in risk assets that set the tone for global markets at the beginning of the week. “It appears that Macron has thought that either he can rally a coalition to stop Le Pen, and so reaffirm his mandate and halt the momentum of National Rally in its tracks, or alternatively, should the Far Right prevail, then he hopes they will make a mess of their time in office and thus stymie Le Pen’s presidential run in 2027,” suggested Mark Dowding of BlueBay Asset Management. “However, this has a bit of a sense of a gamble, and politicians such as David Cameron in the UK might be able to tell a thing or two about how such gambles have a habit of blowing up in your face.” #elections #markets #financialadvice
WeekWatch - 17/06/2024
partnership.sjp.co.uk
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Great to be quoted on my views around the upcoming French election by Bloomberg. Most scenarios should provide a relief to risk markets, even an RN absolute majority given their fairly conciliatory message so far. Longer term, however, a lack of fiscal consolidation is a negative for French spreads. The key risk is an absolute left majority (NFP) whose programme is the most confrontational with respect to the EU and fiscal policy. This tail is a small probability of a large risk off event.
France Keeps Markets on Edge With Le Pen Fighting Left for Power
bloomberg.com
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Hello ! please find attached my new Macrocast. 3 points on the agenda: 1/ The first round of the French elections leaves an absence of majority for any of the three blocks plausible. 2/ Excess Deficit Procedure would not necessarily prevent the ECB from triggering TPI, but minimum cooperation between the recipient national government and the EU would be needed. 3/ We are more confident the Fed will cut in September and less confident about further cuts in 2025.
One Week at a Time
axa-im.com
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The second round of the French elections has resulted in a hung parliament, with no group able to claim a majority – contrary to market expectations. The result saw the rightward shift in the first round of the snap parliamentary elections turned into a partial victory for the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP). After opening slightly lower due to fresh political uncertainty, markets have rebounded as the prospect of a hung parliament reduces the likelihood of large policy change. The question now is: what could happen next? In our special report, '"Second-round" effects: French shift from right to left in final ballot’, we discuss three possible political scenarios and their investment implications for European assets. You can download our full report here: https://lnkd.in/eDwMsp4R (When investing, your capital may be at risk) #wealthmanagement #privatebanking #frenchelections
CIO Special – “Second-round“ effects: French shift from right to left in final ballot | Investing Themes
deutschewealth.com
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Poland has had 8 years of PIS government that undermined the rule of law, democracy, EU relations … and consequently also the business environment. The LF team has responded by working mostly for our PE clients on a range of assignments, and spending an inordinate amount of time in far-away Chile and Colombia on telecom mandates, far away from the dystopian political climate created by PIS. The October 2023 parliamentary elections, which mobilized 75% of the Polish electorate and were resoundingly won by a coalition of the opposition parties centered around Donald Tusk, promise much expected change. As recently pointed out by Martin Sandbu in the Financial Times, the election marks a profoundly important turn in Poland’s national direction and with it the cohesion of the EU. It will also allow Poland to play a leading role in Central Europe, and v-a-v Ukraine, ahead of potential further EU enlargement. It will probably take some time to re-establish full rule-of-law and to fully de-politicise important institutions (such as the key courts, the central bank, and others). But Poland is back as a constructive and important voice in Europe! LF’s take on the recent election in Poland is that they will boost business sentiment in Poland, which should lead to more active capital markets and a lively M&A market in due time – it will be good to do some business closer to home at last! https://lnkd.in/dE6UuijD
Liberal democracy strikes back in Poland
ft.com
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Private Banker | Advising, empowering and interconnecting remarkable people to help them achieve their financial goals
Are you concerned about navigating through stormy (financial) waters ? Read on to discover the insights from our experts. In the aftermath of the French legislative elections earlier this month, when the left-wing won the majority of seats in the National Assembly despite pre-election forecasts suggesting that the extreme right was likely to take the lead, many of my clients and contacts have been eager to benefit from the insights of our team at Piguet Galland & Cie SA in order to understand the implications for them and for their investments. I’m pleased to share with you the following article by our experts in case you too would like to explore this theme and gain a deeper understanding of the expected orientation of the financial markets for future weeks and months: #privatebanking #investments #wealthmanagement
France on standby? The reactions of the financial market
piguetgalland.ch
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