Senior Economist at NerdWallet, focused on economic data/trends, jobs, home affordability & consumer spending, saving, debt and credit. I also lead our data studies team.
In May, the #labor market continued to come into better balance — with openings holding steady and separations remaining low. While we’ll know about the more recent past when the June jobs report comes out on Friday, today’s data is further encouragement that the current labor market supports continued #inflation moderation and that a September rate cut could still be at play. Among the smallest of businesses, the rate of openings has finally come down. These small establishments were experiencing open roles well above the rate that larger businesses were, since last summer. Small business owners who struggle to fill vacancies can be forced into more dramatic measures — like cutting hours of operation — so it’s heartening to see their rosters better-filled. The quits rate has been steady at 2.2% for the past seven months, lower than it was even before the pandemic. Recall, there was a surge of quits in 2021 and 2022, when workers took advantage of the tight labor market and found better fitting jobs. This shuffling of jobs has ended and is one sign of many that the balance between workers (labor supply) and employers (labor demand) is in better alignment.
