Dave Kimbell’s Post

Hello, guys! 🌟 Seeking Perspectives on Ulta Beauty: An Investment Opportunity? 🌟 Ulta Beauty has been on my radar lately, and I must say, it's quite an intriguing prospect! 🚀 As the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., Ulta boasts an impressive track record that speaks volumes about its resilience and growth potential. 📈 Over the past decade, the company has consistently demonstrated stellar performance metrics: 🌟 Revenue Growth (10Y) = 15% 🌟 Diluted EPS Growth (10Y) = 24% 🌟 FCF Growth (10Y) = 26% Impressive, right? But here's the twist: despite these remarkable figures, the elephant in the room remains valuation. 🐘 While the stock trades at the lowest valuation level of the past 10 years, my valuation model places the stock's intrinsic value between $260 and $300 per share (I use 15% as my discount rate - my minimum acceptable rate of return on any investment). That's a potential 20% decline from current levels! But hey, don't just take my word for it. I'm eager to hear your thoughts! 💬 Do you see Ulta Beauty as a compounder poised for continued success? Or do valuation worries keep you at bay? Let's spark a conversation and delve into the future prospects of this beauty powerhouse. 💄✨ Drop your insights below! 👇 #UltaBeauty #InvestmentOpportunity #MarketInsights #investing #stockmarket

🌟 Seeking Perspectives on Ulta Beauty: An Investment Opportunity? 🌟 Ulta Beauty has been on my radar lately, and I must say, it's quite an intriguing prospect! 🚀 As the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., Ulta boasts an impressive track record that speaks volumes about its resilience and growth potential. 📈 Over the past decade, the company has consistently demonstrated stellar performance metrics: 🌟 Revenue Growth (10Y) = 15% 🌟 Diluted EPS Growth (10Y) = 24% 🌟 FCF Growth (10Y) = 26% Impressive, right? But here's the twist: despite these remarkable figures, the elephant in the room remains valuation. 🐘 While the stock trades at the lowest valuation level of the past 10 years, my valuation model places the stock's intrinsic value between $260 and $300 per share (I use 15% as my discount rate - my minimum acceptable rate of return on any investment). That's a potential 20% decline from current levels! But hey, don't just take my word for it. I'm eager to hear your thoughts! 💬 Do you see Ulta Beauty as a compounder poised for continued success? Or do valuation worries keep you at bay? Let's spark a conversation and delve into the future prospects of this beauty powerhouse. 💄✨ Drop your insights below! 👇 #UltaBeauty #InvestmentOpportunity #MarketInsights #investing #stockmarket

At Ulta, we believe in the possibilities of our associates. The possibilities to dream big dreams. To be exactly who they are. To chart the course of their own career. If you have that same passion, click here to learn more: https://bit.ly/45CkYeK #MakeupJunkie #beautywithoutlimits

Ulta Beauty's CEO, Dave Kimbell, raised concerns about a significant slowdown in beauty product demand at the recent JP Morgan Retail Round-Up Conference on April 3rd, sending shockwaves through the industry. This unexpected change in outlook has raised questions about Ulta's management team's ability to accurately forecast future business conditions, developing just weeks after the company reported strong quarterly earnings. Kimbell stated that Ulta had experienced a steeper and earlier decline in beauty sales than anticipated, impacting various product categories and price points. He pointed to factors like rising consumer credit card debt and economic uncertainty as potential reasons behind the spending pullback. This warning directly contradicts Ulta's previous earnings report issued in late March, where the company projected net sales of $11.7 billion to $11.8 billion for the current fiscal year, reflecting a healthy 4-5% growth in comparable sales. Notably, there were no crucial indications of weakening demand at that time. The sudden shift in tone caused Ulta's stock price to plummet, with shares dropping over 13% on the same day of the conference. The warning also impacted other beauty and cosmetics stocks, including E.L.F. Beauty, Estee Lauder, and Coty. This development raises serious concerns about the reliability of Ulta's forecasting abilities and the transparency of its communication with the market. Investors and analysts will be keeping a close eye on how the company navigates the current economic climate and achieves its growth targets in the coming quarters. Ulta's leadership should heed to demonstrate a deeper understanding of the factors affecting their business and provide more distinct guidance to rebuild trust with investors. Their ability to weather the demand slowdown and maintain their competitive edge will be critical in the upcoming months. #ultabeauty #retailindustry #skincare #earningswarning #managementcredibility #forecasting #consumerdemand #economicuncertainty #stockmarket #wallstreet #ir #investing #businessleadership #notfinancialadvice

BIG morning. Companies House published our annual results this morning (of course they chose to do this when I was out for a run, resulting in an about-turn and sprint home). Headline news: it's been a strong year with revenues up 15 percent taking us through the £550m mark and, crucially, EBITDA is up. Here's the comms bit from the comms guy... We're a private company, so we don't HAVE to announce anything, but there is always a fair bit of fervour and interest around how we are faring every year. So, we thought, let's let people know how we have done. But let's do it in a Gymshark way.... so we got Ben Francis MBE to openly discuss the results in a TikTok-esque (alright Grandad) video, rather than some wordy, dry press release. And then we thought "hang on, we've got so, so much going on in 2024. As well as looking back at the results, we should definitely look forward too and excite our community with everything we have going on". And it's fair to say, we have more going on THAN EVER. Below is the result from Mr Francis - a very big FY23 and FY24 is shaping up to be our BIGGEST. YEAR. YET. Ambition prevails. Exciting ways of doing comms prevails. Transparency prevails. #gymshark #communications #pr #different

"How do I start?" 😕 This is the most common question I've been asked by the 100+ young people I've had the pleasure of speaking to this week... 🙏 Ben Francis' story has been one of my favourites to follow from the beginning for a few reasons 👇 1 - Humble beginnings - Ben was a self-starter using money earned from delivering pizzas to fund his first business (which wasn't Gymshark) 💲 2 - Focusing on the back-end - I've always tried to adopt Ben's obsession with focusing on a businesses operations, efficiency and 1% alterations to improve profitability, rather than marketing as hard as you can 🖥 3 - Being open about his weakness and failures - and learning from them with businesses he started prior to Gymshark (remember, you'll only hear about people's successes once they're big enough to catch your attention, not the failed ideas leading up to it) 🦈 Ben is a fantastic example of starting by... well... starting. I'll post his (in my opinion) best video about the Gymshark story in the comments 🔗

I love a success story, especially in a challenging market. It gives others hope and motivation that there is growth in some industries. BIG success on this level tends to come from being brave, innovative and having the courage to go all-in on something that no one else is doing. Gymshark grew to this scale outpacing competitors, by building a community of fitness fanatics, and carving out a new niche (which grew into a mainstream trend) of athleisure as a lifestyle - not just clothes. Gymshark adopted influencer marketing and affiliate links early on, leveraging a huge community and merging the fitness and fashion industry into a whole new market. It's a significant sector shift that is rarely done so well. Impressive stuff! #retail #marketing #founderstories #successstories #influencermarketing

Imagine if we adopted this authentic approach to financial management past and future in the NHS like Ben Francis MBE of #gymshark ( instead of written reports ) Could be a Game Changer ??? #onenhsfinance HFMA CIPFA CIPFA Student Network Rob Whiteman CBE #publicfinance #FP&A ICAEW AAT #AGM #financialperformance #corporategovernance #DirectorofFinance #diversityofthought

Lunch Break Must-Read for Beauty Enthusiasts! Ulta Beauty is revolutionizing its strategy in response to current challenges. CMO Michelle Crossan-Matos, featured in The Wall Street Journal, shares insights: ▸Strategic Pricing: Ulta offers diverse price ranges, allowing consumers to experiment in an inflationary environment. ▸Data-Driven Decisions: Ulta uses loyalty program data for product selection and brand partnerships. ▸Innovation and Affordability: Ulta meets consumers' needs for innovation at different price points. ▸Community & Social Media: Ulta's Ultamate Rewards members and strong social media presence drive industry trends. ▸Retail Media Network: UB Media provides effective brand growth opportunities. Ulta's approach empowers brands and adapts to market changes. A remarkable example of innovation and adaptability! #UltaBeauty #Innovation #RetailMedia #BeautyIndustry #MarketingStrategy #DataDriven