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Chief Investment Officer at Coolabah Capital Investments

Barrenjoey's Andrew Lilley puts a 60% probability on RBA hike in August: "Following May monthly CPI I would upgrade August from a possible hike (20% likely prior to seeing the data) to a likely hike (~60% likely after seeing the data). On our updated simulations (taking into account our usual forecast errors) we see a: -36% chance of a 1.1% trimmed mean or higher (which they’ll almost surely hike on) -43% chance of a 1% trimmed mean (very close to 50/50 call, but if I had to come down off the fence, I’d say they hike)?"

Ivan Colhoun

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3d

Unless the Bank is detecting sharp weakening in activity from liaison evidence (unlikely to be sustained given the tax cuts), then 1pct or higher trimmed mean means they have to hike as board cannot seriously reiterate they are confident their forecasts of return to target are on track as the staff revise these forecasts higher for second quarter in a row. Closer to 80pct probability!

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