Clive Thompson’s Post

Macron calls for a 𝗦𝗡𝗔𝗣 𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 🗳️ 🗳️ 🇪🇺 Macron’s Renew Party saw a heavy defeat in the European Election, only capturing 15.2% of the vote compared to its far right opposition National Rally who captured 31.5%.   😮 President Macron’s abrupt and surprise decision to call an election left markets to react by selling off bonds leading to a rise in the French 10-year bond to 3.21 per cent, the highest levels since November 2023.   📉 The CAC 40, the French Benchmark index, fell 1.8%, the larges fall in all European indexes with Bank stocks being hit the hardest, with Société Générale falling more than 7%.   🇫🇷 This does NOT mean there will be a new French President as president and National Assembly elections are separate events!   🗳️ However, following assembly elections a (new) Prime Minister (the 2nd highest office in France) will be appointed from the dominant party or coalition in the assembly! ⚡ If Macron’s party loses the upcoming National assembly elections, he would not have power to set domestic agenda but would still direct French defense and foreign policy as President. Comment your thoughts below ⬇️ ⬇️ #SnapElection #EuropeanPolitics #Macron #France #FrenchElections #Economy #MarketReaction #BondMarket #CAC40 #Finance #PoliticalNews #Eurozone #NationalAssembly #FrenchPolitics #Investment #EconomicImpact #Election2024

🇫🇷 French Elections: Euro Impact - Are you prepared? 🇫🇷 As France gears up for its pivotal parliamentary elections on June 30th, the financial world is abuzz with anticipation and opportunity 🗳️. Here's why this matters to you, especially if you're purchasing Euros: 📉Market Jitters and Economic Impact: European equities and the Euro struggle as investors fear a shift away from the status quo. Savvy and forward thinking companies are able to seize advantageous exchange rates to cement FX gains on invoices.📈 🤝Potential for a Hung Parliament: The likelihood of a party having no overall majority is likely, and it is unclear exactly how a coaliltion would fit together across party lines. Consequently the political direction of France, and its place in the EU/EZ is unclear. 💶Currency Market Reaction: Ebury expects to see a sharp sell off in EURUSD in the event of either a National Rally (considered radical right) or New Popular Front (considered far left) majority victory. At Ebury, we are not just #FX experts - we are your partners in navigating global business. Get in touch to strategize your Euro exposure!💪 #frenchelections #riskmanagement #Euro

It will take a lot more than political chaos in the European Union’s second-biggest economy to upend the rally in the continent’s bonds. French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election caused yields to spike across the bloc. But sovereign bonds in parts of the periphery quickly rebounded, as investment giants including Vanguard and Jefferies took advantage of the widening sell-off to add more exposure.

The results of France's latest election have raised questions on the state of the nation's economy. Analysts caution of possible challenges in implementing reforms resulting from a fractured parliament. One finds especially troublesome the left's economic agenda. Reaching levels not seen since the 2012 eurozone crisis, France's debt risk premium reflects market uncertainty. Still, some relief is voiced since far-right policies were avoided. As investors consider policy uncertainty, the political deadlock can cause continuous market volatility. #FrenchEconomy #EconomicReforms #InvestorConcerns #FrenchPolitics #EurozoneCrisis #PolicyChallenges

France' election outcome: coalition government, minority government or technical government? Without a clear absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale, there is a risk of deadlock. But this is not such a bad thing, especially for investors, as future legislative impasses should temper some of the left’s spending plans. Not surprisingly, the French markets have turned higher since Sunday, but uncertainty will be the order for the next little while. There is an observable connection between equity market returns and geopolitical risk.  Below are some links to some studies that have used our ICRG risk data to draw the connection. (https://lnkd.in/gxz4rKH7) (https://lnkd.in/dfhD6WQU) (https://lnkd.in/e2am5Jad) Our data drives. The PRS Group-International Country Risk Guide www.PRSGroup.com www.christophermckee.net #france #election #macron #lepen #gridlock #bourse #Paris #geopoliticalrisk #geopolitics #politicalrisk #leftwing #spending #EU #investmentrisk #equities #markets #volatility

France' election outcome: coalition government, minority government or technical government? Without a clear absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale, there is a risk of deadlock. But this is not such a bad thing, especially for investors, as future legislative impasses should temper some of the left’s spending plans. Not surprisingly, the French markets have turned higher since Sunday, but uncertainty will be the order for the next little while. There is an observable connection between equity market returns and geopolitical risk.  Below are some links to some studies that have used our ICRG risk data to draw the connection. (https://lnkd.in/gxz4rKH7) (https://lnkd.in/dfhD6WQU) (https://lnkd.in/e2am5Jad) Our data drives. The PRS Group-International Country Risk Guide www.PRSGroup.com www.christophermckee.net #france #election #macron #lepen #gridlock #bourse #Paris #geopoliticalrisk #geopolitics #politicalrisk #leftwing #spending #EU #investmentrisk #equities #markets #volatility

The gap between the 10-year French and German yields has risen to 79 basis points, marking the highest level since the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Read more in our latest article https://lnkd.in/g7nFYk22 on the France election. #FranceElection2024 #GlobalDataSolutions

Europe under stress The EU parliamentary election and the subsequent decision by French President Macron to call for new elections in France unnerved the markets. It appears a bit like the Euro turmoil back in 2016/17. Only this time it is not Euro (initially) but political uncertainties. It is not only the French bond spread which widened dramatically but also the Italian. German bunds are again sought after as a safe haven and the other regions are sold out. Investors worried about: high debt levels in Europe Unpredictable budget policies of populistic governments Anti EU stance and possible breakup of EU Despite all the worries, Euro is not as badly hit as could be expected but this could only be the beginning of Euro decline. #eu #euro #currency #fx #forex #bonds #yields #france #germany #financialmarkets #crises #politics #euparliament #macron #macroeconomics #markets

Professional Insight: The Euro demonstrates resilience, gaining 1.3% against the USD following initial French election results. A significant political and economic marker for professionals watching European market trends. #MarketAnalysis #EuroStrength #BusinessImpact Read more https://lnkd.in/ebZPRfwx

The combined blows of the global pandemic, the war in Ukraine and Russia’s weaponization of energy supplies have taken a toll on government finances. Total euro-area sovereign debt is projected to exceed 90% of gross domestic product in 2025, up from about 84% before the pandemic and 66% before the 2008 financial crisis — a trajectory that threatens to undermine the common currency. France and Italy in particular — with among the region’s highest debt-to-GDP ratios — must slash budget deficits or face sanctions under the EU’s new fiscal rules. In the article, the authors argue that further integration of the EU into a fiscal union is a wise move, as it would be hugely beneficial for financing the Green transition, which is estimated to cost €5 trillion in public and private investment. However, if we take this approach seriously, considering the pending report from Draghi and the potential influence of ultra-leftist politicians like Mélenchon from the La France Insoumise group, the likelihood of increased public spending becomes very real and if the #Netherlands were to go along with these plans and assume their proportional share of the total EU national debt, their national debt would rise to approximately 137.82% of their GDP. #nationaldebts #Italy #France #Netherlands #Greentransition