Claudio Saes’ Post

Nvidia in 2024 vs. Cisco Systems in 2000 I posted a previous comparison a few weeks ago. This is an update. NVIDIA recently earned the most valuable company in the world status with an EV of $3.3 trillion, a record 11.7% of total US GDP at its recent peak on June 18, more than twice as high as Cisco's achievement in 2000. It also has an even richer multiple of 41 times revenues. Will be future growth be up to the lofty market expectations? #competitiveadvantage #strategicfit

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Thanks Claudio for sharing. Indeed, Winter is coming! I am pretty confident we are at the end of a great #stockmarketbubble as is suggested by the chart. But IMHO this one has little resemblance with the Tech bubble and more with that of the Nifty Fifty in the early 70s. Indeed, AI is a driver in the bubble, but I don't think it is a tech centric bubble. If you look at the market breadth it has been performing very poorly over the past months compared to the #Envidia & #FANG. While the the latter are strong companies with strong revenues committed to AI that continue to beat all-time highs day after day, other smaller but well know companies also with a focus on AI like #Snowflake or #Cloudflare are down 65% and 62% respectively since November 2021. The Nifty Fifty bubble arose from an increasing and unsustainable gap between top performing companies and the rest of the market. It will get to a point where the market will realize that multiples paid for the Best of the best have gone too far and as history has taught us, we will most inevitably have a pendulum effect. The challenge is identifying when the bubble will burst. As Keynes and #Thebigshort taught us: «Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent».

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