Caroline Greenhalgh’s Post

In our latest #GeneralElection blog, Atticus Associate Director Michael Dowsett explores the rise of Reform UK and which right-leaning policies, if any, the Conservatives could consider embracing to meet the demands of voters: https://lnkd.in/d_N5DChp

A fascinating piece as always by John Burn-Murdoch. If the opinion polls are anything like accurate then the result of the coming election (even if in the circumstances the projected result is absolutely necessary and we applaud it) will provide a pretty unanswerable case for proportional representation. It could well be advocated for the first time by whatever Conservative Party emerges from the wreckage alongside Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party. Difficult to see that a Labour Government could seriously argue in favour of a FPTP system which creates parliamentary representation so divorced from the spectrum of electoral opinion. PR is also perhaps the single most significant thing which might introduce into what is a moribund and dishonest political culture, genuine and engaged debate about multiple real choices, and political representation for a range of opinions, rather than the infantilised binary choices which are required for success in our current political framework.

Debates around the U.K.'s first-past-the-post system have flared in the post-election debate. But what is it and how does it function? Read our article here. https://lnkd.in/g-kJ8W_j

TODAY IS THE LAST DAY TO REGISTER TO VOTE 🗳️ (& to get sort a postal/proxy vote) Tuesday 18th at 23:59 is the cutoff 🙏 Postal is 5pm on 19th ✉️ Here’s the link: https://lnkd.in/eYp9JPt9 ☀️ And if you aren’t registered, or are and thinking of not voting bc you’re dissalusioned with the main political parties then here’s some advice: 🐉 It’s NOT just red or blue. Don’t be fooled into thinking it is. 🧘♀️You can use this tactical voting link 🔗 https://lnkd.in/e6NjJDWZ 🔗 to see who is worth voting for to upend the tory seat in your postcode. 🦄If it’s already unlikely a Tory will get in then PLEASE do research on other parties outside of Labour 💚💛 and independent candidates or consider voting for a lefty candidate in Labour (this isn’t always the case, so research them). 🫤It’s hugely worrying that reform are currently polling #2 behind labour because people are dissolusioned with current options. Voting far right to ‘make a point’ will cost lives. You’d be voting against the trans community in doing so 🏳️⚧️ 🗳️Votes cost lives. Vote for who you actually want to if you have the ability to do so and send a message to Labour that we aren’t on board with their flavour of BS either right now. 📦If you’re so dissalusioned with the main two political parties and don’t want to vote for anyone else, then honestly would rather you spoil a ballot than vote right wing 🤮 to make your point. The Tories are toast, Labour want you to believe it’s them or nobody. Register to vote, do your research and make your voice heard and get lefty politicians into parliament to serve our communities 🏳️⚧️🏳️🌈 #vote #registertovote #generalelection #toriesout #morethantwoparties #yourvotematters

Between May 30th and June 21st, WeThink asked 18,595 adults how they intend to vote in the general election. The results suggest Labour has a 20-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives, by 42% to 22%. Reform uk is on course for 14% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats 11% and the Green Party 6%. This is a dramatic turnaround from the 2019 election, when the Tories led by 12 points, and would be the largest swing between the main parties in modern history #UKpolitics

The British electoral system was designed to limit the voice of the people. Yesterday it delivered a spectacularly perverse outcome.Labour secured a massive majority, with an enormous increase in seats, with barely a third of the vote and almost no increase in its vote share. Labour won because the Conservative vote collapsed, and split.The Lib Dems went from a marginal 8 seats to 71 with, again, almost no change in their vote share, winning seats mostly because the Conservative vote collapsed and split.The only parties to genuinely increase their vote share were Reform (unfortunately) and the Greens. And the Greens did well because of a long term strategy of winning councils, building grassroots power, and targeting four seats.The story of most recent elections - in Australia, the UK, France, Europe - is that our electoral systems are splintering and breaking as people seek actual democratic representation. First Past the Post is the worst, and broke badly yesterday. But even Australia’s excellent electoral system is not matching the democratic impulse.Elections are not democracy. They’re not even very democratic.I

The most distorted election ever & the dangers that come with it For our ECR Research and ICC Consultants BV FX and Interest Rates reports, we keep close track of the upcoming UK elections. For the Financial Times, John Burn-Murdoch, points out how the FPTP electoral system could result in a extremely skewed election outcome: "...On current polling, 2024’s will be the most disproportionate result ever recorded in a UK general election in terms of the mismatch between votes and seats...By the same measure it will also be the most distorted election outcome of any major country in the world. There is a distinct possibility that the UK general election on July 4 produces the following outcome. Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party wins a record 450 seats and a huge majority on a lower share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour achieved in 2017. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats win the second-largest number seats, becoming the official opposition, despite finishing fourth on vote share behind both the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The Conservatives and Reform are on course to win a combined 37 per cent of votes, but perhaps as little as 10 per cent of seats in the Commons. You could scarcely come up with a better recipe for fuelling the advance of Faragism: millions of voters with a justifiable sense of having been screwed by the system, while their figureheads rail against power instead of having to face the choices that come with wielding it — a position populists have always preferred...." https://lnkd.in/dSPrDMcr #UKpolitics #UKelection #politics #politicalrisk #UnitedKingdom #Britain

Is the UK’s electoral system still fit for purpose? Yesterday’s vote may provide evidence that change is needed. 40% of those eligible to vote didn’t, and of those that did 67% voted for parties other than labour. Yet the U.K’s first past the post system led to a landslide majority for Labour. It’s easy to see why voters may feel apathetic - like their vote just didn’t count. Everyone wants the immediate issues - not least the NHS - tackled. But my sense is that electoral reform will surface as an issue for Keir Starmer sooner than later.

Much of Britain’s economic and societal issues - have as their root cause, the urgent need for a fairer electoral system – and if politicians won’t make it happen, then the people could do much worse than follow the model outlined here - designed to aim to ensure that each constituency MP (who serves in a representative democracy Govt. by assembly - model) reflects a majority consensus of that constituency’s voters. The U.K. had a (broadly) similar system for mayoral elections - but the Conservatives took it away via legislation in this Parliament - Since they (correctly) believe that they gain an advantage from the iniquities of the 'First Past The Post' (FPTP) electoral system.

When you go to vote on July 4th, I’d like to suggest one slight change to Patrick Tooher’s comment in relation to the excellent article in the Financial Times by John Burn-Murdoch…. Politicians should put their CONSTITUENTS first, then country, then party, as you consider where to put your X. Yes, potential members of the House of Commons, unless they stand as #Independent candidates, nail their initial mast to a particular party’s manifesto. However, I would like to believe that they also campaign based on their constituents requirements. Further, I would like to think that if they are true to their #principles and have #honesty and #integrity about them, that should their party move away from a policy previously signalled, that they would remove themselves from any whip. Yes it’s a career, but the primary focus of an MP should be to serve all the constituents who they represent whether they voted for them or not. I can say (and am lucky enough) to have had personal interaction with MP’s (and further those who sit in the UK House of Lords) and more importantly they have come from The Conservative Party, The Labour Party and Liberal Democrat’s. All have proven to me that there are good politicians amongst the many that aren’t. This election, feels to me, more important than many in my adult life. I’m undecided as to who to vote for. The UK 🇬🇧 like much of the world 🌍 is at a crossroads. If you’re like me, I can only suggest that set aside all previous allegiances and talk to as many of your local candidates as possible and ask them the simple question of: If your party followed a policy that you fundamentally disagreed with, will you remove yourself from the whip and become independent? If they hesitate, then don’t vote for them. If it’s an unequivocal No, then consider carefully if they are deserving of your vote If it’s Yes - and you can get it in writing - then vote for them. Just a thought for those who are undecided… Have a great weekend everyone! 🤔👍🕊️🇬🇧 #democracy #freedom #allegiance #opinion #politics #media #socialmedia