Carly Fink’s Post

Consumers are continuing to spend on experiences, defying the expectations of many and leaving finance chiefs to wonder where shoppers will spend their money. The Wall Street Journal highlights the challenges companies are facing in planning for where and when consumers will spend their money (link in the comments). Grocery prices are soaring, pandemic-era savings are shrinking, and credit is both more expensive and tightening. These factors would normally indicate a slowdown in spending and require companies to prepare for that slowdown. However, consumer spending remains surprisingly strong. How do these trends impact you, or those you advise? Are you seeing changes in strategies, forecasting, or other long-term planning decisions? Share your thoughts in the comments below. #cfo #fractionalcfo #economy

Fueled by lower unemployment alongside subdued #inflation and shifting #interestrates, November's 0.3% retail sales surge marked a dynamic start to the 2023 holiday shopping season. This bolstered confidence in the U.S. economy, supported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's revised Q4 growth forecast. Dive deeper into the details in this article from The Wall Street Journal and if you’re keen to navigate this evolving financial landscape, let's connect. I can introduce you to a Frost advisor for more valuable insights. Member FDIC. #Economy #TheFed #RetailSales #ConsumerSpending #BusinessBanking

Fueled by lower unemployment alongside subdued #inflation and shifting #interestrates, November's 0.3% retail sales surge marked a dynamic start to the 2023 holiday shopping season. This bolstered confidence in the U.S. economy, supported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's revised Q4 growth forecast. Dive deeper into the details in this article from The Wall Street Journal and if you’re keen to navigate this evolving financial landscape, let's connect. I can introduce you to a Frost advisor for more valuable insights. Member FDIC. #Economy #TheFed #RetailSales #ConsumerSpending #BusinessBanking

Fueled by lower unemployment alongside subdued #inflation and shifting #interestrates, November's 0.3% retail sales surge marked a dynamic start to the 2023 holiday shopping season. This bolstered confidence in the U.S. economy, supported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's revised Q4 growth forecast. Dive deeper into the details in this article from The Wall Street Journal and if you’re keen to navigate this evolving financial landscape, let's connect. I can introduce you to a Frost advisor for more valuable insights. Member FDIC. #Economy #TheFed #RetailSales #ConsumerSpending #BusinessBanking

How consumers across all income brackets are spending this holiday season have implications for not only retail but for restaurants as well. BDO’s Natalie Kotlyar discusses Black Friday spending in a conversation with Marketplace’s Kimberly Adams. #BlackFriday #ConsumerBehavior

With the reduction of monetary supply subsequent interest rate increases, deflation is a likely outcome, eventually. Anecdotally, the trend I have seen, and heard about in retail venues is nonessential goods (I.e. electronics, some durable goods, appliances) have experienced significant price reductions. Essential goods (I.e. groceries, clothing, staple household goods) have remained relatively unchanged this year. In the food, feed, and pet food grade bulk commodities sectors, there has been a noticeable slowing in commodities to move. Feedback from merchandisers has indicated increasing difficulties in “finding homes” for commodities. Part of this is directly influenced by the global trading arena and export order slowdowns (consequent shifting, fragmenting supply chains as referenced by the World Bank). This has led to a saturation of the United States market. Given anecdotal and statistical inputs, I expect a deflationary curve to begin at the end of the upcoming holiday season in Q1 2024. Given there are some economic sectors that are still “under supplied” , a deflationary curve is likely to be disjointed and gradual. Correspondingly, freight demand will be equally disproportionate in various transportation sectors. The danger is an abrupt deflationary curve. Sudden, sharp deflation probably will be as economically damaging as that of inflation. Whether this can lead to recession (and its severity) is more dependent on consumer and broader market sentiment than the actual underlying objective conditions. If there is no panicked reaction, economic conditions may well be “painful” but not catastrophic. A deflationary escalation will be problematic for the Fed to mitigate given the amount of sovereign debt (with mixed maturity redemption cycles, rates) “out there.” An election year impulse by lawmakers to one extreme or the other to attempt to mitigate deflation escalation likely would have no effect or be short lived…or make things worse. If the anticipated deflationary cycle is incremental, the economy and its participants will be able to adjust accordingly. If not, sudden tightening of liquidity will be escalatory in nature prompting “knee jerk” reactions from the consumer upwards.

📉 In April, we saw a more significant drop in U.S. consumer sentiment than anticipated... with the University of Michigan reporting a fall to 77.9 from 79.4 in March. This decrease highlights increasing concerns around inflation which is reshaping the economic landscape. Rising prices for everyday essentials are hitting American households hard, leading to a notable shift in spending behaviors and escalating inflation expectations—now forecasted at 3.1% for the next year. Our Take: Shifts in consumer spending could necessitate a reevaluation of our logistics strategies and adjustments in supply chain operations For a deeper dive into these findings, check out Fox Business Network: https://lnkd.in/gG-_hwET As logistics professionals, keeping a pulse on these economic indicators is crucial for strategic planning and ensuring the longevity of our businesses in these fluctuating times. #logistics #supplychainmanagement #consumersentiment #economicoutlook #businessstrategy

Target, what will the Q4 financial results reveal when they are released? Only two things can happen as a result of the 2023 holiday season, Target shows some signs of returning to a more normalized result when compared to others in the market....or.....Targets disparity continues to grow. If the latter takes place.....will be interesting to see how the leadership addresses this and how much "fantasy" they can actually layer on this time to cover the shortfalls....most consumers will tell you, they know what the issues are; out of stocks at point of sale, no obvious value proposition outside of the Target environment most have come to prefer over Walmart, no grocery strategy, and no response to a market that has become increasingly cost sensitive....stay tuned....I'm expecting Target to take center stage after the holidays with investors....