Brad Dean’s Post

I've been warning about this for years. As of 2024, the fertility rate in the United States is 1.64. The fertility rate is a somewhat difficult number to measure, but can roughly be thought of as the number of children an average woman will give birth to over the course of their lifetime. For a population to remain stable, you need 2.1 children per woman. The population of the US is still increasing, primarily on the basis of the Millennials, which followed a pattern similar to but more muted than the Baby Boomers. The growth rate is the first derivative of the population and is still (barely positive), but the growth acceleration rate, the second derivative, shifted negative about fifteen years ago. Not counting immigration, the US population will peak in about 2040, about 15 years ahead of what was predicted at the turn of the century. Immigration is likely to continue for some time after that, but by 2050 or thereabouts, the same phenomenon will be hitting immigration rates, and it is likely that we'll see signs of that by as soon as 2037 or so. What's worth noting, however, is that immigration for the most part is concentrated in a few key areas - around the southern border with Mexico and northwards to about Colorado, along Florida and the Gulf Coast, and various population groups that are facing wars or similar actions (the number of Ukranians emigrating to the US, mostly the elderly and children) has spiked, not surprisingly). In general, recent immigrants don't immediately impact schools, though the next generation generally is schooled. In many parts of the country, where immigration is usually not an immediate factor, the birth rate differential of -0.46 births is already being felt, with it predicted to exceed -0.5 births within the next decade. This rate of decline would be faster except that woman are having children later in life as in vitro fertilization becomes more widely used, but because this is such a slowly changing number, there is still an open question about how significant the latter effect is. Regardless, the upshot of all of this is that we are looking at a demographic shift that is due to several factors all pointing to a long term (multigenerational) stabilization (and ultimately decline) in population that is already affecting our schools, our workplaces and ultimately our senior years. As with other crises, the effects have occurred slowly at first, but are now becoming noticeable. We probably can't change anything in any meaningful way as far as stopping this (nor, to be honest, would this decline necessarily be a bad thing for humanity) but it does mean that we need to start adapting our institutions to recognize that the status is going to be increasingly non-quo, and that if we expect things to remain the same, we will be guaranteed nothing but disappointment.

I think it’s inaccurate to surmise that urban schools are empty because of low birth rates, which in turn is the reason for parents to move elsewhere. It’s simply not the case. Parents do not move because of not having children. They move in search of better job opportunities. After the pandemic, inperson jobs fell precipitously. Remote jobs began to gain traction, and parents without the requisite skills began to feel the pain. They have been left with no alternative but to move, move along with their children. There is your problem — the absence of jobs! Lawmakers can stabilize this population by creating jobs, and by offering opportunities to retrain low skilled urban parents for the new digital economy. That’s what would keep them in their school districts, and their children in their schools. This is one way to curb the outflow of kids from urban school districts.

Maybe America has too many of the "wrong" types of schools. Instead of indoctrinating students, maybe more schools should go back to focusing on delivering tangible vocational skills that can lead to a certificate in a trade and immediately gain employment afterwards. The shift from vocational education to a college based one was short-sighted and a huge mistake. Yes, manufacturing went overseas in the 80s; however, there was still a need for many vocations. Instead, the shift to promoting a 4 year degree for everyone resulted in administrative bloat at colleges. Administrator employment greatly outpaced faculty growth and student enrollment. As always, it was all about the money. The good news is that more young people are seeing through the charade and are choosing to save money and learn a trade. This new shift should have a ripple effect and bring back the vocational education platform that is sorely needed. This, in turn, will help urban youth gain skills, meaningful employment, and solid compensation. #education #trades #vocationalschool #schools

This is one of the best discussions of the impact of declining enrollment on schools I've seen lately, and it does a good job of balancing the pros for student experience when schools are smaller with the fiscal realities of an enrollment-based funding system. But one factor often goes ignored in these discussions: as enrollment declines, we have more English learners and students with disabilities. Weighted student formulas should offset this, but does the math really math when you need a certain number of set positions to have a functioning school? Particularly when you need social workers, hard-to-staff teachers, and occupational therapists?

"AMERICA HAS TOO MANY SCHOOLS" was the Wall Street Journal Headline. While the quality of education in urban schools has declined significantly, despite graduating most students, parents, when possible, have opted for the positive outcomes of homeschooling; & private schools to a much lesser extent. Latest U.S. Data: (1) There are 3.7 million homeschool students in the U.S.; (2) Homeschool students outperform institutional school students academically. (3) The average cost of homeschooling is $700-$1,800 per student annually; e.g. unlike the $29-$30,000 per student at Chicago Public Schools; & (4) The top reason for homeschooling is a concern about school environment. All parents (urban, suburban & rural) are intelligent in knowing something is very wrong when their kids graduate high school but are functionally illiterate. Where parents fail, given ability to elect school boards, they seem to vote the same people to office not holding them accountable. There very well may be too many schools. But; when possible, parents are making wise choices that benefit their children, culture, & civilization. Parents know best; not politicians or elitists.

It was a great privilege to attend this event a few days ago. The Science of Reading is so important. But adoption and implementation is easier said than done. I learned a great deal from this discussion, organized by FutureEd at Georgetown. 4 of my top takeaways were that: 1) Every stakeholder must be fully engaged for the Science of Reading to work. That includes teachers, students, parents/caregivers, school and district leaders, elected officials from all levels of government, and the philanthropic community. 2) Adopting The Science of Reading is hard. Implementing The Science of Reading (implementing any policy) is harder. Flexibility, problem-solving, collaboration, communication, grace, and maybe even some Duck Tape will be required to move from where we are to where we need to be. 3) The Science of Reading isn't just for English / reading teachers. It's something every Pre K- 12 educator must be familiar with, and those working with students who are still learning to read must be especially well-versed in it (even if they aren't the student's reading teacher). 4) We gotta make this fun. Learning must be fun. Children and adults will always learn best when learning is centered around play, kindness, and joy. #educationalequity #scienceofreading #policychange #policymaking

Reflecting upon a profound experience exactly one year ago when I had the privilege to participate in the Regional Conclave on Justice Education. I am deeply grateful for the invaluable insights gained during this event, all of which continue to serve as an immense source of inspiration for my ongoing contributions to the field of justice education. #Throwback #JusticeEducation #ProfessionalDevelopment #legaleducation

Here  is an article I wrote regarding low performing / failing schools in San Antonio: https://lnkd.in/gC43BrA9

70 years ago today, the Supreme Court declared school segregation unconstitutional in the landmark Brown v. Board decision. As we commemorate the 70th anniversary of this historic event, we honor Brown’s promise of equitable education by setting a blueprint for action. We worked with an inspirational group of colleagues to lay out a vision of an equitable education system that mirrors America’s rich diversity. We’re calling for: ✅ State Policy change: Rethinking district lines and enshrining equitable funding ✅ Actionable Research: Studying segregation’s impacts on school funding and access to key resources, and exploring effective integration tactics ✅ Strategic Advocacy and Litigation: We must use every tool in the toolbox to achieve integrated, well-resourced public schools, including community- based litigation and advocacy. We can turn this vision into reality together! Check out the link below to read the shared vision document https://lnkd.in/g9vt3EQz

“School district boundaries can and should be drawn intentionally to define school systems that are neither separate nor unequal.” - Zahava Stadler, New America Last month, we announced $5.8 million in grants to promote #integration and #equity in U.S. public schools. One of our grantees, New America, is modeling changes to school district boundaries to improve diversity and funding equity. By exploring options like district consolidation or redrawing boundaries based on existing census data, they aim to inform the creation of more balanced and equitable school districts. New America emphasizes, "Just as legislative districts need fair maps, school districts are crucial for an equal society." We are excited to support New America as they work towards creating fairer and more inclusive school district boundaries.