Bill Cobb, Appraiser’s Post

Yesterday, I had the privilege of leading the "Developing & Analyzing Residential Market Conditions" class. We dived deep into the world of market trends and Supply/Demand, addressing key questions that many appraisers grapple with: Data Selection: How do you choose the right data for trend analysis?  Or do you use all sales data? Do you rely on daily sale prices, or prefer average or median values over different timeframes like monthly, quarterly, semi-annual or annual? Scope of Analysis: What geographical limits do you consider? Do you analyze data by subdivisions, neighborhood boundaries, zip codes, entire cities, or perhaps broader areas like counties or MSAs? Which is the most reasonable? Timeframe and Segmentation: How extensive should the historical data be? Is it more telling to examine trends over 1, 2, 5, or even 10 years?  And is it truly indicative of a trend if you are only comparing one period to another? We also explored the nuances of Inferred vs. Fundamental analyses and four different Levels of Market Conditions Analysis.  Always a highlight of the class for me was demonstrating how Excel can be a powerful tool to develop the trends and necessary adjustments easily, efficiently, and accurately. For all the appraisers, analysts, and data enthusiasts out there, I'm curious to hear about your approaches.  How do you determine market trends?  What strategies have you found most effective?

In summary, I want to emphasize the importance of relying on facts rather than emotions. Currently in 2024, I have compared the prior sales price of 2015 and added the 21% appreciation rate between 2015 and 2018, which aligns perfectly with our expectations. Additionally, when I add 7.3% to the approximate $15-16 million it sold for in 2018, it closely matches our appraisal value today. It's crucial to avoid guesswork and relying on personal feelings in the real estate market, as there is an abundance of data available. Instead, we should always prioritize an evidence-based approach and focus on the data. Let's move away from guesswork and make informed decisions based on concrete information.

In summary, I want to emphasize the importance of relying on facts rather than emotions. Currently in 2024, I have compared the prior sales price of 2015 and added the 21% appreciation rate between 2015 and 2018, which aligns perfectly with our expectations. Additionally, when I add 7.3% to the approximate $15-16 million it sold for in 2018, it closely matches our appraisal value today. It's crucial to avoid guesswork and relying on personal feelings in the real estate market, as there is an abundance of data available. Instead, we should always prioritize an evidence-based approach and focus on the data. Let's move away from guesswork and make informed decisions based on concrete information.

I have successfully completed Task 1 House Price Prediction .This project involves the use of data analysis and machine learning to forecast the future values of residential properties. By examining various factors, such as location, size, condition, and market trends, predictive models are developed to estimate the prices of houses. These models are invaluable tools for real estate professionals, investors, and homeowners to make informed decisions about buying or selling properties and to stay updated with market fluctuations. #technohacks #sandipgavit

I came across this interesting data from Clever Real Estate looking at how Sellers see real estate agents after the recent National Association of REALTORS® settlement. There some really interesting granular data on how sellers see the current commission system, however what was really intersting were Seller perceptions of agents. "About 9 in 10 home sellers (88%) say a real estate agent is important to the process. Nearly three-quarters (73%) went further, calling Realtors “inherently necessary” when selling a home." What was really interesting, were seller perceptions of agents 🤔 "Two-thirds of respondents (67%) believe real estate agents value profits over their clients’ best interests, while 73% of sellers say agents tend to overinflate property values to secure a higher commission." "More than three-quarters of sellers (79%) think that real estate agents should be held to stricter ethical guidelines, and nearly half (46%) believe the standards for becoming a Realtor are too low." Yikes. There is clearly a big gap here. Sellers say they NEED agents to help them with a transaction, but there is clearly a trust factor. This also represents a HUGE opportunity for agents who understand the power of branding to overcome some of these misconceptions. For all my listing agents out there, what do you think about this data?

Would you say having an army of sales people on the ground is more competitive / accurate than using the public datas and A.I? There's no right answer to the above, although I tend to think a good sales force is meant to be out and not in front of a screen, but big changes ahead with the use of public data, and I'll show you what has recently been released by Pappers and it's absolutely insane ! But first and as a reminder, public data plays a critical role in fostering #transparency and #accountability in governance and #businesspractices, including #realestate. By making #data accessible, governments allow citizens and investors to scrutinize property markets, monitor economic trends, and make well-informed decisions. For instance, property tax data, land registry information, and zoning regulations enable real estate professionals and potential buyers to evaluate property values and development opportunities accurately. With it's latest release, Pappers really smashed the French game, on cross-mixing datas and providing it's users free informations! https://lnkd.in/gF9jdQWf Within less than 30 seconds, access land registrations, recent sales on a specific plot of land, ownerships, tenants, building permits, declaration of building permits... all this, for free ! #Publicdata being protected and not fully #digital, it's at least a step forward where, us, #realestateprofessionals, as well as #buyers & #vendors, can at least spend more time focusing on the #market, it's #fluctuatingvalues, with such volatile market for the last two years, and it's trends, without having to spend energy, time and endless filling in forms to get datas on our desks... Is our #businessmodel, finally switching to a more "American" one, where all transactions, assets, prices, are digitally accessible cc Zillow What's your feeling on this? Let me know in the comments.

Recent data Analytics show, properties that need an asking price reduction take more than three times longer to find a buyer, as those that do not. Giving sellers who price right from the outset the edge to sell more quickly. Staging your property adds value to potential buyers and can lead to a much quicker sale and no need to reduce the price. #winwin Send me a Dm for more information on our property staging services.

How to Uncover Hidden Patterns in Real Estate Data to Analyze Market Trends The real estate market is a complex and ever-changing one. There are many factors that can affect the price of a property, such as location, demand, supply, and economic conditions. By analyzing real estate data, you can uncover hidden patterns that can help you make better investment decisions. There are a number of different types of real estate data that you can analyze, including: Property listings data: This data can be used to track prices, trends, and availability of properties in a given market. Demographic data: This data can be used to understand the population of a given area, including age, income, and education levels. Economic data: This data can be used to track economic conditions, such as interest rates, unemployment, and inflation. Traffic data: This data can be used to understand the foot traffic in a given area, which can be a good indicator of demand for real estate. Social media data: This data can be used to track conversations about real estate in a given area, w... https://lnkd.in/e2vMfZaD REAL_ESTATE_BI REAL_ESTATE_DATA REAL_ESTATE_DATA_ANALYSIS

We think it is always appropriate to know what you get for your money, especially with the current costs for most housing market research data .... here are the data fields we give you updated EVERY MONTH from 100% of the permits issued and recorded escrow closings for every active new home community in either PHOENIX or TUCSON ... that's the big guys and the little guys! We cover subdivision-level new home permits and sales, land and lot sales, plan-level price tracking, BFR permits, future new home subdivisions, and more ... all based on real and complete and current data. The data updates on the 15th of each month with last months detailed data in every field [Shown below is the data included in the flagship SALES AND PERMIT DATASET. The data is available to everyone in your organization and requires no special skillset. The data is directly usable with no fancy footwork, is "one click" compatible with Microsoft Excel's ANALYZE DATA tab and interface making really serious data analysis and charts and graphs "one clickable". We have been compiling and publishing this level of quality data for over 35 years and have users that have been clients for that long, including the biggest and smallest builders, developers, and suppliers, in the marketplace. We have long been the most trusted source for REAL and COMPLETE housing market data in the region. And, the best news is that our data and analysis products are really affordable. Go to www.rlbrownreports.com, click on the the Magic Professional tab at the top of the page and the Our Reports tab for the details and the PRICES. CALL US at 623-341-1127 and schedule a Zoom demo to see the products and answer your questions.

Well said Steve Harney... [https://bit.ly/3te6djx] "Here’s a parable Charlie Munger used to tell…about a little boy named Eric in Texas…to emphasize that human nature must be taken into account whenever you are predicting future results. The teacher asked the class: “If there are nine sheep in the pen and one jumps out, how many are left?" Everybody got the answer right except this little boy, who said: “None of them are left." The teacher said: “Eric, you don't understand arithmetic.” Eric politely replied: “No, teacher. You don't understand sheep." Commercial real estate is all about numbers. Residential real estate is all about people. The reason many agents’ opinions on the housing market differ from forecasts is that most forecasters just look at the data. Agents must figure out how that data will impact the behavior of a buyer or seller. It requires a little more work but it’s helped them understand the market better than most. Just saying…" The moral of the story is for you to understand consumer sales, you must FIRST learn to understand consumers.