Benoit Verreault’s Post

Aluminum Price After Passing a Slight Low at 2,470 in Mid-June, Continues to Evolve for the Better The price of aluminium has been fluctuating since the start of the year. After reaching a two-year high of 2,792, it experienced a significant drop to a mid-June low of 2,470. Despite this drop, the aluminium market continues to exhibit a bullish bias above this low. This is largely due to the support provided by the uptrend line that has been consistent from February to June, currently standing at 2,505. The market is now eyeing a rise above Wednesday’s high of 2,561. This increase is crucial as it would bring the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 2,582 into focus. The SMA is a critical indicator used by traders to analyze price trends over a specific time period, and a rise above this level could signal a strong bullish trend. https://lnkd.in/ePnfYuhF #aluminium

Powering the Future: Hydro-Quebec’s $9 Billion Investment for 3000 MW Wind Energy Expansion In a landmark move for renewable energy, Hydro-Québec has announced a strategic partnership with the Pekuakamiulnuatsh First Nation, the Atikamekw of Wemotaci, and the MRC Domaine-du-Roy. This partnership aims to develop a vast 5,000 km² area in the Chamouchouane zone of the Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean region. The project has the potential to produce up to 3,000 MW of wind power capacity, making it one of the largest in the world. This major initiative, backed by a $9 billion investment, is poised to include several wind farms, marking a significant step towards Hydro-Québec’s goal of adding 10,000 MW of wind power by 2035. Ratified by a Quebec government decree, this “win-win” partnership ensures that the Indigenous communities and the MRC not only share in the revenues but also play a pivotal role in the planning stages of development. Hydro-Québec’s shift to project management reflects a deeper commitment to working alongside First Nations communities and municipalities from the outset, fostering social acceptability and shared benefits. This equal partnership aligns with Hydro-Québec’s Wind Energy Development Strategy, as stated by President and CEO Michael Sabia, promising a collaborative approach that benefits the entire province. https://lnkd.in/eKUwKbSh

China’s Aluminium Production Near Record Highs Generating a Mismatch in Supply and Demand of Alumina As we navigate through the complexities of the global aluminium market, China’s role as a leading producer continues to shape industry trends. Recent data indicates that China’s primary aluminium production is nearing last year’s record highs, with a significant increase of 5% year-on-year to 3.65 million metric tons in May. This remarkable growth trajectory places national output close to an annualized 43.0 million tons, signaling a robust recovery and a potential new benchmark in production. This surge has not come without its challenges. The alumina market, a critical component in aluminium production, is experiencing a tightening due to increased demand. Spot prices in China are hovering near their highest levels since late 2021, which could influence aluminium prices as we approach year-end. Yunnan province, known for its hydro-rich environment, has seen improved rainfall, easing power shortages and allowing primary aluminium producers to resume operations. This has led to the restart of approximately 1.15 million tons of capacity, reinforcing Yunnan’s status as a key player in the industry, especially as companies shift towards greener production methods. However, domestic alumina supply is struggling to match the pace of demand from these smelter restarts. The Shanghai Metal Market reports a 5.4% rise in national production of primary metal, while alumina output increased by just 3.4%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reflects this disparity, with alumina prices rising by 15.3% compared to aluminium’s 3.5% since January. The volatility of Chinese alumina prices in 2024, including a spike in January over concerns about bauxite supplies from Guinea and another in May following Rio Tinto’s force majeure declaration, underscores the market’s sensitivity to supply disruptions. Environmental factors and reliance on foreign bauxite have further complicated the production landscape. China’s response has been to adjust its import and export strategies, increasing alumina imports by 60% in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, while also boosting exports to Russia. As we look ahead, the expectation is for China’s alumina market pressures to ease, with refineries likely to ramp up supply in response to high prices and the completion of smelter restarts in Yunnan. This anticipated shift could bring a new equilibrium to the market, reflecting China’s adaptive approach to meeting both domestic and international demand. As we continue to monitor these developments, the balance between supply and demand will undoubtedly be a defining factor in the months to come. https://lnkd.in/ejrdWgcS #aluminium

Ghana's Aluminium Industry Set for Transformative Growth The global aluminium industry is poised for remarkable growth and transformation in the coming decades. With applications ranging from aerospace and automotive to construction and packaging, aluminium is an indispensable material in modern society. Ghana, with the second-largest reserves of bauxite deposits in Africa, is perfectly positioned to capitalize on this growth. GIADEC (Ghana Integrated Aluminium Industry) has been established to promote and develop an Integrated Aluminium Industry (IAI) in Ghana. Partnering with strategic allies, GIADEC aims to develop every aspect of the aluminium value chain. Robust infrastructure is key to meeting increasing demand and seizing emerging opportunities. Efficient transportation networks, including railways and ports, are vital for the aluminium industry's global reach. To align infrastructure development with GIADEC's plans, the Transport Working Group has been established, bringing together key government agencies such as the Ministries of Roads and Highways, Departments of Urban Roads, Feeder Roads, the Ghana Ports and Harbours Authority, and the Ghana Railway Development Authority. Port Expansion: Takoradi Port's New Dry Bulk Terminal In December 2022, a new dry bulk terminal at Takoradi Port was commissioned, significantly boosting Ghana's trade capacity. Designed to handle at least 30 million tonnes of bulk cargo per annum, compared to its previous capacity of 6.3 million tonnes, this expansion is a game-changer. The port now features three conveyor belts with a combined output of 30 million tonnes of bulk cargo per annum, with one belt dedicated solely to bauxite. This will enhance the export of excess bauxite produced under the IAI. A functional railway system is crucial for transporting the high volumes of raw bauxite from mines to refineries. GIADEC emphasizes that a reliable railway network is essential to avoid road transportation, ensuring efficiency and sustainability in the aluminium sector. https://lnkd.in/ej8Sq_Ku #aluminium

Rio Tinto to Install 10 Carbon-Free Aluminium Smelting Cells at Arvida Smelter in Québec Rio Tinto will install 10 carbon-free aluminium smelting cells at its Arvida smelter in Québec, Canada, utilizing the first technology licence issued by the ELYSIS joint venture. This groundbreaking investment will advance the development of the revolutionary ELYSISTM technology and allow Rio Tinto to build expertise in its installation and operation. Rio Tinto will design, engineer, and construct a demonstration plant equipped with ten pots operating at 100 kiloamperes (kA). The plant will be owned by a new joint venture, with Rio Tinto and the Government of Québec, through Investissement Québec, investing $179 million (CAN$235 million) and $106 million (CAN$140 million) respectively. Total investment: US$285 million (CAN$375 million). The facility will employ the same technology successfully demonstrated at the ELYSIS Industrial Research and Development Center in Saguenay—Lac-St-Jean. Timeline: First production targeted by 2027. Location: Adjacent to the existing Arvida smelter, utilizing the current alumina supply and casting facilities. Jérôme Pécresse, Rio Tinto Aluminium Chief Executive: “This investment will further strengthen Rio Tinto’s industry-leading position in low-carbon, responsible aluminium in North America. Becoming the first to deploy the ELYSISTM carbon-free smelting technology is the next step in our strategy to decarbonize and grow our Canadian aluminium operations. In addition to delivering even lower-carbon primary aluminium for our customers, this investment will allow Rio Tinto to build its expertise on installing and operating this new technology.” Pierre Fitzgibbon, Québec Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy: “ELYSIS is a truly disruptive technology for the industry, and it's thanks to Québec expertise that we are the first in the world to produce GHG-free aluminium. This technological innovation brings unprecedented benefits to our aluminium sector, reinforcing our position as an undisputed world leader.” The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Canada’s Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry: “Canada has all it takes to be the global green supplier of choice, which is why our government is collaborating with key industry actors like Rio Tinto to produce low carbon aluminium. Groundbreaking projects such as the ELYSISTM smelting technology ensure Canada remains at the forefront of the economy of tomorrow.” ELYSIS Joint Venture Partner Alcoa: Alcoa will have the option to purchase a portion of the aluminium produced over the first four years at the Arvida demonstration plant through an offtake agreement. The joint venture continues its R&D program to scale up the ELYSIS technology, with larger prototype 450 kA cells already constructed at Rio Tinto’s Alma smelter. Commissioning of these industrial prototype cells has begun, with start-up set for 2024. #aluminium

The Transat Québec Saint-Malo: A Celebration of Courage and Tenacity This weekend, I had the pleasure of wandering through Old Quebec, a city officially founded in 1608 and known as one of the oldest European settlements in North America. Amidst the historic charm, I encountered a vibrant array of boats preparing for an extraordinary journey. Every four years since 1984, the world’s ocean racers embark on the Transat Québec Saint-Malo, a race that is much more than a test of speed. It is a profound demonstration of human courage and endurance. Participants face the mighty Saint Lawrence River, navigate the treacherous North Atlantic, and finally, reach the bustling port of Saint-Malo. What makes this race unique is that it is the only west-to-east transatlantic race without stops, and in crews, with a third of the course taking place in river waters. This race is dear to the hearts of sea adventurers, as it commemorates the bravery of the early settlers who, for centuries, crossed the Atlantic under sail, confronting countless dangers. The challenge begins with the unpredictable currents and tides of the Saint Lawrence River. Sailors must demonstrate exceptional skill and resilience to navigate these waters. As they enter the Atlantic, they face the vast ocean’s perils, including severe weather, towering waves, and the ever-present threat of icebergs. The final leg through the English Channel demands precise navigation amidst heavy maritime traffic and strong currents. This race is a tribute to the spirit of exploration and the indomitable will of those who dare to challenge the sea. It celebrates not only the modern sailors but also the legacy of the first arrivals who braved the Atlantic’s dangers to reach new shores. The Transat Québec Saint-Malo is more than a race; it is a celebration of human tenacity and the timeless bond between Québec and Saint-Malo.

Rio Tinto Announces $165USD-Million Investment in Quebec's Grande-Baie Smelter Rio Tinto is investing $165 million (C$226 million) in the refurbishment of its Grande-Baie smelter in Quebec. Two anode baking furnaces, which have reached the end of their operational lifespan, will be refurbished. This involves rebuilding the concrete shell and refractory lining, with the project set to span from 2025 to 2026. Feasibility studies will be conducted for the eventual replacement of scrubbers and overhead bridge cranes at the anode production centre. The upgraded equipment will secure a competitive supply of anodes for the Grande-Baie and Laterrière plants for decades to come. To offset the carbon emissions from this project, Rio Tinto plans to implement various environmental initiatives, including planting trees near the aluminium smelter. “The refurbishment of the Grande-Baie smelter’s anode baking furnaces is a major investment that will ensure the sustainability and competitiveness of responsible aluminium production in the region for decades to come and will generate significant economic benefits,” commented Martin Lavoie, Grande-Baie and Laterrière operations director. https://lnkd.in/eQzYBv9G #aluminium

China's Aluminium Imports Surge China, the world's leading consumer of aluminium, has seen a significant increase in aluminium imports, rising 61.1% in May compared to the previous year. This surge, highlighted by customs data, is attributed to increased shipments from Russia, a major global producer of aluminium, nickel, and copper. China imported 310,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminium and products in May. A notable portion of this increase is due to rising imports from Russia, which has been redirecting its metal exports to China following Western sanctions. In the first four months of this year, China imported 500,741 tons of primary aluminium from Russia, marking a 91.6% increase from the same period last year. Total aluminium imports for the first five months of 2023 reached 1.8 million tons, up 81.7% from last year. Imports of bauxite, essential for aluminium production, also rose by 4.7% in May, totaling 13.55 million tons. While Russian aluminium imports have surged, imports from other countries have been constrained due to higher global prices compared to China. The demand surge is driven by optimism in the solar and electric vehicle industries, alongside speculative market activities, leading to a rally in aluminium prices. The benchmark contract on the London Metal Exchange hit a near two-year high last month. https://lnkd.in/essd4dHE. #aluminium #china

The Zimbabwean Government Aims to Develop Aluminium Sector in Collaboration with Tajikistan The Zimbabwean government is set to enhance lightweight metal production through aluminium beneficiation to meet the growing industrial demand. Aluminium is becoming crucial in various sectors, including aerospace engineering, food packaging, household appliances, and electrical conductors, where it is increasingly replacing copper conductors. Chiwenga, currently visiting Tajikistan, announced this ambitious initiative after touring the Tajik Aluminium Company (TALCO), a significant player in Tajikistan's industry with an annual production capacity of over 500,000 tonnes. He expressed a strong interest in establishing similar processing plants in Zimbabwe and highlighted the potential for economic collaboration between Zimbabwe and Tajikistan. In Zimbabwe, CAFCA is already producing electrical cables from aluminium. Dr. Chiwenga emphasized the need to scale up aluminium production to match TALCO's capabilities and invited TALCO to partner with local companies to share expertise and further develop the industry. During his visit, Dr. Chiwenga also met with Tajikistan's Minister of Industry and New Technologies, Mr. Sherali Kabir, to explore potential areas of collaboration. Minister Kabir expressed readiness to cooperate in Zimbabwe's mining sector, emphasizing the technological, human, and financial resources available from Tajik companies that could benefit both nations. These visits and discussions represent a significant step towards strengthening industrial ties and leveraging Tajikistan's advanced aluminium production capabilities to enhance Zimbabwe's lightweight metal industry. https://lnkd.in/ehZRdnyQ