Ben Petter’s Post

The top-line macroeconomic indicators look encouraging for Central & Eastern Europe but, with a big year coming up politically, will incumbent governments across the region benefit from that? 👇 https://lnkd.in/enhqm3Sx

Quick Financial Overview💶   💼📈🌍🌟 Investing in the face of inflation can be a smart strategy to protect your wealth and preserve its value over time. As we see positive economic forecasts for many countries, it becomes crucial to consider the potential impact of inflation on your financial assets. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, and that's where well-chosen investments can play a crucial role. By seeking opportunities that offer a real return that beats the rate of inflation, we can ensure our capital retains its value. Recent reports show encouraging signs for the global economy, with most of the top twenty economies experiencing an improved outlook. Even the UK, amid concerns surrounding Brexit, is projected to see growth thanks to factors such as increased consumption and investments. However, challenges persist for some nations. Germany, for example, faces its third consecutive decline in economic performance, which could have implications for neighboring countries like the Czech Republic. Amidst these uncertainties, it's important to carefully consider investment options that can provide a hedge against inflation. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting, staying informed about economic forecasts and understanding their implications is crucial. Let's discuss the challenges and opportunities presented by the current global outlook and find strategies to protect and grow our wealth. Alexandr Savko savko@weroholding.eu  #inflationprotection #globaloutlook #investmentstrategy #wealthprotection #wealthpreservation #economicforecasts #financialmarkets 💼📈🌍

In our latest February Economic Review, we explore the below highlights: 🔍Deeper insight and meaning to movements in the UK and Japan's economies 💡 Highlighting the spikes and market fluctuations in US inflation 📈A review of the South Africa SONA and National Budget Speech 2024 Read an in-depth analysis here: https://lnkd.in/dGVAhP6d  #Graviton #EconomicAnalysis #GlobalTrends #PolicyImplications #StrategicPlanning #FinancialMarkets

We anticipate 2024 will bring, unsurprisingly, lower, if still robust, growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Yet, perhaps more surprisingly, along with lower growth, we also foresee less risk. Economic growth in the region has been steadily diminishing from the peak of 11.6 percent YoY in 2Q21 to 5.7 percent YoY in 3Q23. The drivers of growth that fueled above-par performance in 2021 (bounce back from the lows of the 2020 crisis) and 2022 (excess monetary inflows from Russia) lost their shine already this year. The slowdown will now be complemented by a more challenging global backdrop and policymakers’ desire to err on the side of caution and maintain tight monetary policy despite declining price pressures. As a result, we see an environment where GDP growth will moderate from 8.2 percent in 2022 to an estimated 5.8 percent in 2023 and a forecast 4.7 percent in 2024. Contrary to the consensus view, we do not now foresee any further military escalation of Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, including because of Armena’s recent announcement of the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative, which we read to mean that Yerevan is ready to give everything Baku (and Ankara) want without a fight. We thus expect 2024 to mark the year when the peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is formally signed. The Parliamentary elections in Georgia in Oct may in theory muddle country’s bright economic prospects, but we forecast a relatively easy win for the ruling Georgia Dream, which will be riding on the coattails of European Commission’s recent decision to make Georgia an official candidate country to join the EU. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have made a lot of progress recently to delineating their contested border while the situation in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan has significantly stabilized. In conclusion, we envision a CCA region that will deliver stable growth with less surprises for market participants.

In Europe, inflation is down sharply from the double-digit highs of last year. Tighter monetary policy is starting to work. However, history is littered with examples of premature celebrations of victory in disinflationary fights—each time with inflation making a comeback. This is a costly mistake that Europe’s policymakers can and must avoid. Read more in our latest Regional Economic Outlook: https://bit.ly/3M0UU4x

IMF Urges Europe to Enhance Single Market Potential IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has emphasized the need for Europe to fully realize the potential of its single market, cautioning against the region appearing as an "ideas supermarket" for the U.S. She addressed this issue during a briefing in Washington, D.C., highlighting the positive trends in Europe's economic performance, including decreasing inflation and improved investment prospects in the euro zone. Georgieva underscored the significance of enhancing labor market flexibility and deepening financial markets to drive productivity. She also stressed the importance of prioritizing innovation and research and development to ensure that European ideas are harnessed within the region instead of being exploited by the U.S. The IMF projects that a comprehensive integration of the single market could significantly elevate Europe's economic growth, with potential output increasing by up to 7% by reducing barriers by 10%. The IMF's forecast for the euro zone suggests a growth rate of 0.8% in 2024, a positive upturn from 0.4% in 2023, and further growth to 1.5% in the succeeding year. # Thank you Vivienne Moreau for your submission!

In New Zealand it’s been 2 years since inflation was inside the 1-3 target range. The RBNZs forecast is for it to stay outside for another year. That’s close to the median country experience among countries that managed to control large inflation shocks. September CPI inflation will show another big number so let’s see if NZ is going to be the median or worse than that. I’ll show you some analysis of what the indicators suggest on our chances of that on Wednesday after the data are out. #inflation

20 years after accession 'big bang' wiiw economists say CEE needs a new model to catch up with the West #bne #bneEditorsPicks #EU The EU members from Central and Southeast Europe need a new economic model if they are to continue their convergence with West European members of the bloc, economists from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) told a webinar on April 24. This year, according to wiiw’s latest set of projections, countries from the region are expected to outstrip the eurozone members when it comes to GDP growth, expanding by an expected 2.5% instead of just 0.6% for the eurozone. That trend will continue into 2025, when the eastern EU members are forecast to grow by 3% and the eurozone by 1.6%.

We are delighted to share, Turim's, August Economic Report. Their August Report highlights that the global economic landscape continues to be influenced by movements in the interest rates market, even in the face of the likely end of the tightening cycle in major economies.   On the global front, they observed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's firm stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, emphasizing that the decision to further tighten or keep interest rates stable in the upcoming meetings will depend on the evolution of a comprehensive set of economic data and the balance of risks. This speech occurred at a time when the market is no longer pricing in additional interest rate hikes. Similarly, the Eurozone and the United Kingdom appear to be approaching their respective "peak interest rates." Meanwhile, the risk of a more pronounced economic slowdown is gaining strength, considering recent moderation in the labor market, the depletion of pandemic-related savings, and the rise in consumer defaults.   In Brazil, the second-quarter GDP positively surprised, driven by a resilient job market and fiscal stimulus, despite a correction in the agricultural sector. However, expectations still point to a contraction in the second half of the year. Additionally, the government has submitted the 2024 budget proposal to Congress, aiming for a near-zero primary result next year. To approve this proposal, a series of additional measures to increase revenue will also need to pass in Congress.   Regarding markets, the notable development is the rise in long-term U.S. interest rates and resulting pressure on the American stock market. In the local scenario, the Brazilian Real faced challenges amid the global risk aversion environment and political and fiscal turbulence. #economicreport #polictical #fiscal #gdp #economic

🌍 Exploring Europe's Economic Outlook and Challenges 📈💡 At first glance, Europe seems to be on the road to recovery, but there are challenges on the horizon. Here's a snapshot of what's happening: 📈 Growth Ahead: The IMF predicts modest growth in 2023 and a slight recovery in 2024, with advanced economies and emerging #European economies both expected to bounce back. 🛠️ Supply Constraints: Easing commodity prices and supply constraints have cooled inflation, supporting real wages, but the situation varies across countries. ⚠️ Downside Risks: Divergences persist, headline inflation may not return to target until 2025, and wage pressures are a concern. 💼 Wage Growth: Wage growth is influenced by #inflation expectations, wage catch up, unemployment gaps, and productivity growth, with some risks in Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe. 📊 Long-Term Impact: New IMF research suggests that near-term inflation can shape long-term expectations, with a greater impact when inflation is high. 💪 Labor Market Strength: Europe's strong labor #market is a positive sign, but it may lead to upward wage pressures and the potential for a wage-price spiral, particularly in Eastern Europe. 💰 Firms' Profits: Firms have been passing on input price increases to consumers, which may impact future wage dynamics. 🌐 Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Geopolitical issues like Russia's war in Ukraine and trade restrictions can lead to supply chain disruptions and persistent inflation. Share your thoughts on the current economic situation in Europe in the comments below. What's your take? 💬