Axios�� Post

I posted this blog for our Atmospheric G2 clients back on April 14th, 2023. The purpose was to look back at history and find similar fit analog years that matched well with the late winter and spring weather patterns across North America. The best and most recent fit was 2009 which eventually grew into a strong El Nino by the winter of 2009-2010 (similar to what climate models are currently predicting for this upcoming 2023-24 winter). I made note of the anomalous upper-level, atmospheric trough across the Midwest and Eastern USA that induced seasonal to cooler than normal weather along with the anomalous upper-level, atmospheric ridge that created a heat dome over Texas during the summer of 2009. Hotter and drier than normal weather was created by the upper-level trough across the North compressing a heat ridge into the Southern USA. We all know now how the story for summer 2023 has turned out for the USA, and especially for Texas. This is just one of many methods that Atmospheric G2 uses to look at subseasonal (weekly) and seasonal (monthly) temperature and precipitation anomalies. Our clients were well informed on the upcoming summer risks including cooler PJM and hotter than normal ERCOT power load zones. If you haven't already subscribed to Atmospheric G2, let my team and I walk you through our AG2 Trader Website platform that includes historical and forecast weather parameters including temperature, precipitation, wind and solar forecasts from 1 hour to 5 months out in time as well as our personal meteorological view points posted in our blogs. It's a one-stop-shop for energy commodity traders and utilities among many other clients. #ercot #pjm #summer2023 #elnino #energytrading #energymarkets

#Globalwarming may soon trigger Gulf Stream / #AMOC collapse with global effects. New #Nature study. https://lnkd.in/eP5MprBC For more expert reaction to the study highlighting both relevans and uncertainty: https://lnkd.in/eTfsurJW The #GulfStream is allready slowing down due to more cold, low-salt, low-density meltwater south east of #Greenland. 2022: https://lnkd.in/egPTaFyN

The latest ECMWF SEAS-5 temperature anomaly forecast for DEC-FEB. The above normal temps over Hudson Bay and Eastern Canada have the look of negative NAO with upper level ridging/anomalously high heights and upper level troughing/anomalously low heights over the Southeastern U.S.

The month was 1.77°C warmer than an estimate of the February average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.    The global-average temperature for the past twelve months (March 2023–February 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.68°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.56°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

February 2024 was the warmest February on record globally, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 13.54°C, 0.81°C above the 1991-2020 average for February and 0.12°C above the temperature of the previous warmest February, in 2016. This is the ninth month in a row that was the warmest on record for the respective month of the year. #globalenergy #globalwarming #climatechange #co2emissions https://lnkd.in/dJNd_h63

Atmospheric G2 is forecasting the next big cold outbreak for the USA! MJO progression and resultant atmospheric instability has led to spikes in the northeastern Pacific atmospheric ridge, otherwise known as the negative phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation, in a noticeable trend over the past few months. Temperatures will be fairly mild across most of the USA during the front half of December, but we could see the next USA cold outbreak occur late December 2023 through early January 2024. While natural gas (NYM $/mmbtu) front month is trading down to $2.68 today, this late Dec/early Jan weather trend could revitalize the energy market. #AtmosphericG2 #energymarkets #energytrading #energydemand

The much talked about this heat wave in July 2023. How can we ensure supply security. The big question is whether only LOLE criteria is adequate enough to capture the energy supply security or may be a criteria based on a group of matrices required to be established? https://lnkd.in/etS4Wf4G

As oceans waves rise and fall, they apply forces to the sea floor below and generate seismic waves.

July 2023 was hotter than any other month in the global temperature record! Overall, July 2023 was 1.18°C (2.12°F) warmer than the average July between 1951 and 1980. https://lnkd.in/eUKiUdAC

❓Do you feel like the 1.5C became such a buzz term that it loses any tangibility and meaning during the time? 👉Then, check out the graph below, we are actually living it right now right here! 😮The average global temperature has for the first time breached the critical benchmark of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels over a 12-month period. 🙏Thank you Financial Times & Copernicus ECMWF for collecting the data and communicating that to the wider public!