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Conventional wisdom suggests small, simple models are best suited for market timing applications, given finance’s “small data” constraint and naturally low predictability. However, in our latest, we show that complex models better identify true nonlinear relationships and therefore produce better market timing strategy performance. We validate this "virtue of complexity" result in three practical market timing applications: https://bit.ly/3WvF3AM

Can Machines Time Markets? The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction

Can Machines Time Markets? The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction

aqr.com

La idea de que los modelos complejos superan a los simples en la identificación de relaciones no lineales y en el rendimiento de las estrategias de market timing es ciertamente interesante, pero, ¿no estamos olvidando algo crucial? En un entorno de "small data", la complejidad puede llevar fácilmente a la sobreajuste, generando estrategias que funcionan en teoría pero fallan en la práctica. ¿No deberíamos centrarnos más en la interpretabilidad y la robustez en lugar de la complejidad? A veces, menos es más. ¿Qué opinan los demás?

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Amit Upadhyay

Senior Executive Officer @ EL DORADO CAPITAL-DIFC

1mo

When time tense to zero, the probability is higher side and vice a versa.

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Ben Abbott

Founder of Utrinque Macro, a boutique macro research company. Performance, and risk consultant. Author and publisher of "The dirty note".

1mo

I believe that they can! However in my experience machines get "out machined" quickly so there is a finite value add to a framework.

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Dylan Maddocks

Investment Management Analyst

1mo

I'm not sure you needed 12,000 predictor variables to demonstrate the point of the paper. Simply upgrading to RBF regression on the original signals should give you the nonlinearity you are looking for

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Uttam Kumar Sinha

Associate Software Engineer 2 JPMorgan Chase & Co. | BTech in Computer Science

1mo

Can Machines Time Markets? Excellent read!

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Klaus A. Wobbe

CEO & Co-Founder @ Intalcon | Systematic Investment Strategies that generate an outperformance and support the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations.

1mo

Yes, they can.

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