Altavia Watch’s Post

The latest economic figures from China have revealed that consumer spending growth has been slower, while the country’s industrial activity and output has remained steady. The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics pointed to retail sales rising by 2.3% in the month of April when compared to the same period last year. An increase of 3.8% had been expected in this area, while March’s number showed 3.1% growth from the previous year. https://lnkd.in/eWRTwK2f #china #chinesemarket #economicnews

In August, China’s retail sales rose 4.5% annually, up from 2.5% the month prior and above market estimates of a 3.0% jump. August marks the largest rise in the pace of trade since May and will help to reassure a global market weary of China’s immediate-term economic prospects.

#China kicks off the year on strong note as retail, industrial data tops expectations - CNBC - Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters’ poll, while industrial production increased 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2%, more than the forecast of 3.2%. - Online retail sales of physical goods rose by 14.4% from a year ago during the first two months of the year.

The Chinese economy's primary driver in the first half of 2023 was consumption, contributing to a staggering 77.2% of growth. What's fascinating about the 2Q GDP breakdown is the stark divergence between the reopening related consumption and property related consumption (One of my favorite charts below) The revival driven by reopening is tangible, as evidenced by the jump in mobility-related consumption. For instance, in the first half of 2023, retail sales of catering and gold, silver, and jewelry increased by 21.4% and 17.5% year-on-year respectively, while retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, textiles, and cosmetics rose by 12.8% and 8.6% respectively. However, China's reopening has yet to overcome three key challenges: a weakened property market, industrial overcapacity and lack of confidence among private entrepreneurs. The double-bottoming of property sales has dampened demand for property-related consumption. For example, retail sales of household electrical appliances only increased 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, while retail sales of construction and decoration materials declined by 6.7% on top of a 6.2% decline in 2022. #ChinaEconomy #GDP #Consumption #PropertyMarket #RetailSales

China reports fastest industrial expansion in nearly 2 years; retail sales growth misses estimates. #china's industrial production advanced by 6.6% year-on-year in November 2023, following a 4.6% gain in the previous month and beating market forecasts of 5.6%. It was the fastest pace of growth since February 2022. Retail sales climbed 10.1% in November from a year ago, the fastest pace of growth since May — though analysts had expected a 12.5% spike following a low base in 2022. Retail sales rose 7.6% in October. Fixed asset investment in urban areas cumulatively grew 2.9% in the first 11 months of the year, compared to expectations for 3% growth. China’s urban unemployment rate stayed at 5% in November. Source: Trading Economics, CNBC

China's industrial production beats forecasts - But growth in retail sales and investment slowed. Government data published today showed that industrial output grew 6.7% from the same period last year, well above a forecast of 5.5% from analysts polled by Reuters. However, total retail sales of consumer goods, a gauge of household spending, were up 2.3%, falling short of a Reuters forecast of 3.8%. It was the fourth straight month with a lower growth rate, underscoring the country's struggle to spur demand. "Overall, the national economy was operating smoothly in April, though the growth rate of some indicators slowed down due to factors such as holidays and a higher base in the same period last year" Meanwhile, the property sector continues to drag down the economy. For the first four months of the year, investment in property was down 9.8%, weighing on fixed-asset investment, which grew by 4.2%. Excluding real estate, fixed-asset investment jumped by 8.9%, fueled largely by spending on infrastructure and manufacturing. The data also showed that the decline of home prices in top Chinese cities expanded last month, as the country struggles to break out of its prolonged property market slump. #china #economy #data #industrialproduction #retailsales #propertymarket

Overall #retail sales in China are in line with what you'd expect for a country its size—by contrast, #ecommerce is off the charts. Why? Read colleague Sky Canaves' new 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿. 🇨🇳 The relative size of a country's GDP and its #retail sales often go hand in hand: the US, for example, represents about 25% of the global total in each one. When looking at #China, however, the country punches slightly above its weight in retail sales, but is totally out of whack in ecommerce. China's GDP of $18 trillion represents about 18% of the global total; its retail sales comprise 21.5% of the total. Yet China is responsible for 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙝𝙖𝙡𝙛 𝙤𝙛 𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙘𝙚 𝙨𝙖𝙡𝙚𝙨 around the world. No other country—not even ecommerce heavyweights like the UK, South Korea or Indonesia—show this type of a skew. Sky's newly published 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 tackles how China ended up with an outsized ecommerce market and looks at whether this dynamic will continue to the same degree going forward. Her 29-slide Insider Intelligence deck is chock full of charts that show China's past ascent and future growth. It highlights where the growth will come from, including which players and types of commerce will dominate. Any clients interested in this market should check out the deck; link in the comments below.

In 2023 China posted a record-high USD $6.62 trillion in retail sales, up 7.2% from the year prior. That fact might surprise readers, because the dominant narrative around China’s economy over the last twelve months has been negative. Indeed, China’s economy is facing challenges that stifled overall GDP growth last year and dampened consumer sentiment. But one point I’ve tried to highlight over the past year is that even with these challenges, China is one of the most attractive growth markets for consumer brands. The scale of the Chinese market is such that even when growth is low and consumers feel the pinch, the absolute growth in Chinese demand exceeds that of “faster growing” markets. And even in an economic down year, retail sales in China grew by 7.2% and hit an all-time high. Obviously it's a competitive and complicated market—we're seeing consumers cut back spending in some sectors like large durables, while upgrading in the lifestyle and health categories. Spending on services like travel and dining is up big. The general fact remains that China continues to present an enormous opportunity for consumer brands and consumer services providers.

Retail Rebounds Improved retail sales should sustain at a lower rate into 2024. Hong Kong’s retail sales grew 16.2% last year, rebounding from a small contraction in 2022. Provisional figures released by the Census and Statistics Department on Thursday showed retail sales in December rose 7.8% year-on-year, reaching HK$36.3 billion (US$4.7 billion), slightly higher than the HK$34.2 billion recorded the previous month. However economy recovery remains slower than expected and consumer sentiment will be impacted as a result. The lingering effects of global economic uncertainties, high interest rates and the underperformance of Hong Kong’s equity and real estate markets all adversely affects consumers’ purchasing power and therefore shopping habits. Three retail sub-categories showed impressive revival in growth last year, luxury (55%); clothing, footwear & allied products (41%); and medicines & cosmetics (39%), rebounding significantly since nearly 2023 as the end of Covid-19 controls boosted local consumption as well as inbound tourism. Retail growth should continue in 2024 however at a lower rate, as economic uncertainties persist as well as increasing outbound tourism by Hong Kong residents, mainly to Shenzhen. Yet there are various factors that should maintain the momentum behind retail growth for 2024 and beyond, the possibility of lower interest rates later in the year should provide an added boost to retail spending. For full article, please see 更多文章內容: https://lnkd.in/gg9E6yh8 #連城集團 #citylinkers #privatewealth #funds #familyoffice #investment #wealthmanagement #ESG #fintech #China #GDP #投資基金 #家族辦公室 #GBA #中國 #大灣區 #金融科技 #IPO #募股 #上市 #BVI #stocks #asset #HKEX #tax #稅 #cryptos #移民 #香港 #RMB

China's National Bureau of Statistics just released their "Economy Report" And it's looking good: - Total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year on year - The cosmetics category, one of the consumption drivers, showed a year on year retail growth of 18.7% Great to see this steady recovery, despite underlying macroeconomic challenges. It will be interesting to look at 2024 as full year.