Alexander Crawford’s Post

Lots of great research/work getting pushed/published during COP. This one looks at tipping points. At 500 pages, I havent managed to digest it all. A few initial comments/observations on the first 'Earth Systems Section'. This looks at many of the same impacts as the IPCC AR6 WG2 report, so lots of coverage of important planetary boundaries, like melting of ice sheets, perma-frost, and expected changes to the natural carbon cycle. What is different with this report, is the researcher try to systematically work out which of these changes might occur quickly in a non-linear cascade, and which wont. One of the surprises for me, was that certain changes (loss of arctic sea ice, melting of perma-frost, changes to the biological pump in the oceans, many changes to the weather system like El Nino Southern Oscillation) aren't likely to occur as tipping points, rather the changes will occur more or less linearly and we will get lots of notice that things are getting worse. The exact timing of others is going to be much harder (although the work collated by the IPCC does give a good estimate of the timeframes eg the earliest and latest we should expect them to occur). There is also analysis on how quickly many of these tipping points will occur. Given they are large scale earth systems, many tipping points will occur over decades or centuries. Its not likely we are looking at 'Day after Tomorrow' outcomes. But very many will be irreversible. There is also some interesting analysis on 'early warning' techniques. Interestingly, some of the methods used are almost identical to the time series analytics utilised heavily in finance and econometrics. Early warning signals might be characterised by things like increased auto correlation, and increased volatility in the time series being analysed. It is undoubtedly the case that the idea of 'tipping points' has captured the public imagination and have become a very effective way of communicating/influencing the public's attitude towards climate change. From a technical/modelling perspective its also a really interesting adjunct to existing systems modelling approaches. https://lnkd.in/eKpBePqN

[ 🌐 Event] "Technology Eats History: Time and Techno-metabolism in the Anthropocene" Lecture by Paul N. Edwards, Director of the Program on Science, Technology & Society at Stanford University.  👉 Tuesday, 30 January 2024, at 17.30 at C²DH Open Space (4th floor, Maison des Sciences humaines, University of Luxembourg) What we call “technology” today involves intensely concentrated metabolic processes, ingesting and transforming energy and materials on a planetary scale. Techno-metabolism also concentrates and compresses time. Its temporalities include Earth's deep past (fossil fuels, minerals) and its present (biological net primary production). The Anthropocene epoch – with humanity as a new geological force – now appears likely to consume, as well, the human future, potentially to the extinction of our species. Holding multiple temporal and spatial scales within our analytic frameworks has proven (unsurprisingly) difficult for STS and History of Technology. This talk offers ways of reconfiguring our conceptual and methodological tools to meet this urgent challenge. Paul N. Edwards is Director of the Program on Science, Technology & Society at Stanford University (where he also co-directs the Stanford Existential Risks Initiative), and Professor of Information and History(Emeritus) at the University of Michigan. He is the author of A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming (MIT Press, 2010) and co-editor of Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance (MIT Press, 2001), as well as numerous articles and other books. With Janet Vertesi, he co-edits a book series, Infrastructures, for MIT Press. Edwards recently served as a Lead Author for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021).   Photo by Carlos Andrés Reyes (Own work) [CC BY 2.0 Deed], via Flickr. Rotated and cropped.

🌎 Planetary Boundaries: Johan Rockström's talk 👏 Today I had the opportunity to participate in Johan Rockström's zoom talk with Mette Morsing. I've admired Johan for a long time, considering him one of the finest contemporary scientists. I also believe that his science-based approach is one of the most convincing arguments for the importance of keeping ourselves below the famous 1.5 degrees Celsius mark by year 2100. In that sense, I know it's a topic that easily lends itself to confusion, and I make myself available to discuss with anyone who has any doubts related to this concept. I also thank Johan for answering my questions, great honor and inspiration. Each person has a different way of internalizing concepts and understanding; in my case, within scientific content, his particular model generates a very powerful call to action. It's my challenge to bring this science to more people, adapting it on a communication level but without losing the essence and maintaining hope of achieving the long-term 1.5C target by year 2100. Although at times I choose not to speak of "degrees celsius", because in terms of communication, depending on the audience, it sometimes creates confusion and dilutes the real nature of impacts that are more closely related to poverty, diseases, people's quality of life, and our subsistence. But if you have the chance, I highly recommend internalizing the Planetary Boundaries Framework, especially because no plan will be viable in the long term if we do not first ensure our species subsistence. The positive aspect is that if we act, it depends on us, and beyond the alerts, there is much hope and positive signals that we must enhance to create the sustainable future we desire 💪 Professor Mette Morsing The Climate Reality Project Climate Fresk Project Drawdown Inner Development Goals Climate Interactive PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research University of Oxford FuturED Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment - University of Oxford #planetaryboundaries #climatechange #sustainability

**Just Published** First scientific assessment of the nine planetary boundaries - "a health check for the planet". #️⃣ Assessment of 2000 studies. 🌍6 of 9 boundaries have been broken (biosphere integrity, land use change, climate change, freshwater and soil health, nitrogen and phosphorus flows), 2 are close (air pollution, ocean acidification), 1 is ok (ozone). ⛽🌾Stopping fossil fuel use and fixing our food system = the two key priorities to protect Earth's resilience and our future survival. 🚜Each year, 3 TIMES the safe amount of nitrogen is added to fields - according to FAO data. We must reduce our reliance on synthetic fertilisers. 🗣️Prof Johan Rockström: "Science and the world at large are really concerned over all the extreme climate events hitting societies across the planet. But what worries us, even more, is the rising signs of dwindling planetary resilience." Link to open access study in Science Advances: https://lnkd.in/eQtDUbMG

The path to more accurate #climate predictions might have just been unlocked. Professor Samar Khatiwala from the University of Oxford’s Department of Earth Sciences devised an algorithm that could reduce the initialization time of complex climate models from several months to under a week. 👩🔬👨🔬 According to Professor Khatiwala, "Minimizing model drift at a much lower cost in time and energy is obviously critical for #climatechange simulations, but perhaps the greatest value of this research may ultimately be to policymakers who need to know how reliable climate projections 📉 are." 🌍This #innovative approach not only streamlines the simulation process but also opens up new possibilities for high-resolution modeling, which is crucial for understanding the subtleties of climate change impacts. The next time you hear about climate forecasts, think of this work that’s accelerating how we prepare for the future. Post content and designer: Kao Youfu Read more: https://cutt.ly/WeutTiUW #GAUC #Oxford #ClimateChange #Innovation #EarthSciences #ClimateModel

These past few months have seen an array of reports that discuss central ideas to #climatechange and #climatechangeadaptation. The Global Tipping Points report was launched at #cop28 (available https://lnkd.in/g4uATkNS) that looks at the diverse ways our world can tip over and obviously provides also solutions as to what can be done. What is interesting are two things: 1) that many of these tipping points are closer than we previously thought and 2) the notion of positive tipping points (key message 6 https://lnkd.in/gCHkFbAA), things we can do to tip pathways and actions in our favour. Definitely something for #IPCCAR7 to consider. The Innovation and Adaptation in the Climate Crises looks at the role of #technology and the many strategies, applications and tools that could support more effective and robust adaptation processes and planning (available https://lnkd.in/g28k7D4p). We know #ai can be a powerful tool (with its mishaps of course) and this report shows a number of cases where technology can assist. Recently at COP28 we heard from Kate Brandt that Google can predict a flood 7-days in advance, which has massive implications for #emergencymanagement and also climate change adaptation. Interestingly #AlexandruVoica posted about a session on AI at #worldeconomicforum where corporations and organisations were asked about challenges with AI and where they might have struggled. And apparently no one in the panel was ready to talk about those... with every new technology there are growing pains and being transparent about those is where the learnings also reside (as much as in the success stories). #climatechange #climateadaptation #climatepolicy

Learn about Frontiers' and the Frontiers Research Foundation's key takeaways from this year's Falling Walls #ScienceSummit23 and watch full recordings of Frontiers' two panels: Climate Action Future and Planetary Boundary Science. ➡️ https://fro.ntiers.in/DYQN Falling Walls Foundation Frontiers Planet Prize PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research World Meteorological Organization The Villars Institute Future Earth UN Climate Change EU Environment and Climate COP28 UAE The Club of Rome IPCC WBCSD – World Business Council for Sustainable Development #OpenAccess #ClimateAction #COP28UAE #EUGreenDeal #PlanetaryBoundaries

#MondayRead | As per a new study by 29 scientists published in the journal Science Advances, six out of nine planetary boundaries that make Earth healthy and habitable have been transgressed due to human activities like greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation. Keeping this context in mind, we share an article by Sangeeta Jayadevan, an expert on data, science, and sustainability about what are planetary boundaries, how human activities are affecting them, what are the implications, the way forward, and more. Read: https://lnkd.in/dqXJn75B #climatechange #planetaryboundaries #earthscience #sciencecommunication

The Frontiers Planet Prize (FPP) triggers the science that propels the transition to a sustainable world. Read this Financial Times article to learn how FPP is sparking the most significant race in human history for sustainable solutions that will bring about a green renaissance in science: https://lnkd.in/en3akX_u #frontiersplanetprize #planetaryboundaries #planetaryhealth #greenrenaissance #GHGemissions #safeoperatingspace

Only a couple of months ago I would have belittled and nagged pretty much anyone praising geoengineering solutions to climate change. Why? A multi-ingredients recipe of ideology, misunderstanding and under appreciation of the current science, fear that these solutions are distractions at best, Pandora's boxes at worst. At the core of it, the deep seated belief that “we don’t know enough to f*** with the weather”. But recently, I’ve noticed a shift in how I feel. Three main reasons: 1️⃣ I’m freaking out ; the latest climate disruption trends are horrifying 2️⃣ We’ve been f***g with the weather this entire time anyways : this is why we’re in trouble in the first place. Also, geoengineering is already taking place all around the globe, see map attached for a glimpse (🔗in comments). 3️⃣ Although the transition is in motion, it will be decades too late at this pace, and even if we seriously accelerate. To cut a long story short. There seems to be one solution out there that would buy us time as we double down on our efforts to cut emissions. One solution that’s praised by a large community of experts that have spent decades trying to identify downturns. And failed to do so. SO2 injection, or sprinkling a little sulfur in the stratosphere. 🌋 I cannot recommend Tomás Pueyo’s excellent newsletter Unchartered Territories enough and the article (🔗 in comments) that helped accelerate my change of hearts. You’ll find everything you need to catch-up on this simplistic low-cost low-tech low-risk (?) tool. I know this isn't a popular opinion. But we should at least talk about it. Also, check out Make Sunsets, these guys are as crazy as they are awesome 🎈