Manager, Demand Planning (Oxford, North Carolina)

At Revlon, we create beauty innovations for everyone that inspire confidence and ignite joy every day.

Breaking beauty boundaries is in our company’s DNA. Since its game-changing launch of the first opaque nail enamel in 1932 (and later, the first long-wear foundation), Revlon has provided consumers with high-quality product innovation, performance, and sophisticated glamour. Elizabeth Arden made waves as a woman-led beauty company in the 1920s. In 1931, Almay became the original hypoallergenic, fragrance-free beauty brand.

Today, Revlon resiliently continues its legacy as a leading global beauty company. Our diverse portfolio—which consists of some of the world’s most iconic brands and product offerings in color cosmetics, skin care, hair color & care, personal care, and fragrances—is sold around the world through prestige, professional, mass, and direct-to-consumer retail channels. These brands include Revlon, Revlon Professional, Elizabeth Arden, Almay, American Crew, CND, Cutex, Mitchum, Sinful Colors, Creme of Nature, Britney Spears, Christina Aguilera, John Varvatos, Juicy Couture, Ed Hardy and more.

We honor our heritage, embrace change, and applaud diversity. We champion our employees and celebrate our consumers.

We are Revlon, together, transforming beauty.

Position Overview

• Enable the delivery of fast & flawless US Mass New Product launches via strong NPD Forecasting and Planning in the US Region.
• Lead team to develop rolling US NPD and Puerto Rico NPD/Existing Business 18-24month customer/sku level forecasts, ensuring that all projects are properly and timely forecasted and meet or exceed targeted accuracy levels.
• Coordinate and maintain unbiased new product forecasts that drive accurate demand to supply planning and support company’s financial and operational objectives.
• Develop & implement new product forecasting tools and processes which utilize historical sales launch data (consumption/gross ships) by brand, customer, product type and multifunctional inputs from Sales and marketing to drive accurate replenishment plans.
• Utilizes and/or designs improved new product processes that deliver accuracy and stability of the corresponding demand plan.
• Collaborate with Sales and Marketing to capture all retail strategic assumptions according to S&OP process.
• Challenge market volume forecasts and brand strategies using objective analytics to avoid risks and identify opportunities. Understand when to escalate to senior management.
• Own NPD Demand Consensus meeting discussions with Sales, Finance, and Marketing to drive demand plan consensus identifying all relevant assumptions to be reflected in JDA including pipe, promo, replenishment, trend, marketing and customer activity impact, promotion events, and risks and opportunities.
• Partner with Global Demand Planning on a weekly/monthly basis to drive communication and alignment on forecast adjustments, strategic direction, priorities, constraints and forecast accuracy.
• Analyze NPD launch forecast performance postmortem to understand key drivers of actual vs forecast variances; utilize findings to improve forecast accuracy in future projects
  
  

Major Duties

• Partner with Trade Marketing, US Marketing, Sales, Promotional Strategy, Global Demand Planning and Supply to ensure adherence to monthly NPD process; documents are published with all updates on time and aligned; Drive accountability across teams.
• Control of pipe, promo and replenishment volume assumptions by item / customer level.
• Prepare internal benchmark analysis to identify risks/opportunities on NPD products.
• Drive Performance analysis to monitor launch progress vs forecast.
• Establish criteria to highlight and identify volatility in demand vs forecast in early launch months; inform management and cross functional teams to impact operational readiness and to deliver best forecast projections to supply planning.
• Confirm that Promo/Promo Placeholder volumes are accurately accounted for in demand/supply plans to provide a comprehensive demand view.
• Analyze and review Retail POS, Shipment History and Inventory trends and monitor sales achievements to proactively identify issues and introduce forecast changes to improve accuracy and contribute to fill rate success.
• Prepare estimated NPD Risks/Opportunities by Project for Senior Management; identify and mitigate risk associated with demand fluctuations.
• Manage team to analyze forecast and KPI behavior to drive continuous forecasting process improvement initiatives.
• Oversee NPD demand planning reports and manage ad hoc analytic requests in an efficient and accurate manner.
• Function as lead NPD support with Finance team
• Manage Sales consolidation process to support Sales vs Demand Planning consensus efforts.
• Communicate NPD/brand total business monthly building blocks and changes with all appropriate business driver assumptions.
• Work with the RB DP team to transfer NPDs after the 6M threshold has passed.
• Provide information for launch gate decisions timely and as needed.
• Lead team to prepare and maintain comparative reports that support a continuous analysis of shipments, consumption trends, and promotional reconciliation to validate and report forecasts and forecast variances.
• Target forecast accuracy within a +/- 5% tolerance to Sales/Finance
  
  

Experience

• 3-5 years’ experience in forecasting or experience with data analysis, statistical methods and trending in supply chain.
  
  

Essential

Knowledge, Skills & Abilities:

• Proficiency with Microsoft Office/Excel and working knowledge of Access Database.
• Experience utilizing demand planning software solutions as well as spreadsheet/database applications for creating forecasting models and statistical analyses.
• Knowledge in the use of a statistics modeling and utilization in ERP platforms such as SAP or JDA/ Manugistics
• Manage complexity of multiple customer sku level forecasts
• Knowledge of CPG marketplace, and distribution channels
• Proven ability to analyze and consolidate large volumes of data, develop a fact-based point of view, and communicate it effectively and convincingly.
• Interpretive ability to translate assumptions into tangible numbers/volumes and vice versa.
• Action oriented to affect prompt constructive action based on forecast deviations.
• Flexibility in initiating creative solutions to unforeseen challenges.
• Strong leadership and consensus management skills
• Excellent communication and interpersonal skills to work effectively with cross-functional teams and stakeholders at all levels of the organization.
• Demonstrate a high level of accountability and self-direction to work autonomously.
• Ability to take initiative and be flexible in a fast-paced, dynamic environment.
• Project management experience and skills
  
  

Education

• Bachelor’s Degree, preferably in business, statistics, finance or supply chain management or similar field
• Association for Supply Chain Management (APICS) certification preferred.