William Lee

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Extensive (20+ years) experience analyzing US and global macroeconomic developments…

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Experience & Education

  • Milken Institute

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Publications

  • Currency Wars: The Great Central Bank Battle

    Bloomberg TV

    Bloomberg TV interview (February 11, 2016) on currency wars: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-02-11/currency-wars-the-great-central-bank-battle

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  • Policy Uncertainty Stalls Global Investment

    Citi Global Perspectives and Solutions

    The narrow-based and still-tepid expansion in Advanced Economies continues to raise fears of secular stagnation. Investment (as a percent of GDP) trails the pace seen prior to the Great-Recession despite “once-in-a-generation” low levels for global interest rates. Without stronger investment to spur a broad-based sustainable recovery, the likelihood of raising productivity to support higher wages and incomes diminishes, as do hopes for more robust long-term growth. In response, economic policy…

    The narrow-based and still-tepid expansion in Advanced Economies continues to raise fears of secular stagnation. Investment (as a percent of GDP) trails the pace seen prior to the Great-Recession despite “once-in-a-generation” low levels for global interest rates. Without stronger investment to spur a broad-based sustainable recovery, the likelihood of raising productivity to support higher wages and incomes diminishes, as do hopes for more robust long-term growth. In response, economic policy makers have geared up with new approaches and policy tools. Unfortunately “no good deed goes unpunished,” as the unintended consequences of recent policy actions may have inadvertently worsened investment prospects. Substantial empirical evidence suggests that investment has been weakened by policy-induced uncertainty stemming from the dizzying array of monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policy measures implemented since the crisis.

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  • Some Guidance on Forward Guidance

    Citi Global Perspectives and Solutions

    Following the Great Recession of 2008, central banks continue to face the daunting challenge of strengthening economic growth and employment without their traditional policy tools. With short-term interest rates in the major advanced economies hugging the zero lower bound (ZLB), and most banks still reluctant to lend, the main channels of monetary policy remain largely inoperative. Consequently, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ)…

    Following the Great Recession of 2008, central banks continue to face the daunting challenge of strengthening economic growth and employment without their traditional policy tools. With short-term interest rates in the major advanced economies hugging the zero lower bound (ZLB), and most banks still reluctant to lend, the main channels of monetary policy remain largely inoperative. Consequently, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other central banks have resorted to unconventional and largely untested monetary instruments and strategies. The open question facing policymakers, global investors and the public concerns the efficacy of these new tools (whether and how they work) and the implications of their prolonged use for achieving their policy goals for growth, price stability, and financial stability — the new triad of policy objectives for major central banks.

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