Sparsha Saha, PhD

"Iranians have no illusions about the future of the economy under either candidate. They have lived and worked under both reformist and hardline administrations as sanctions were isolating #Iran’s economy," outlines Ali Dadpay in the latest commentary https://lnkd.in/etfGA3NY

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The Rise of the Military and the Prospects of Politico-Economic Developments in Egypt Javad Sharbaf, Assistant Professor of West Asian Studies, University of Tehran, Iran (sharbaf@ut.ac.ir) Mohammad Abdolkhani, PhD Student of Political Sciences, Allameh Tabataba’I University, Iran (Corresponding Author: m_abdolkhani@alumni.ut.ac.ir)  https://lnkd.in/eSzxcxua Abstract Although the 2011 uprisings in Egypt led to the fall of Hosni Mubarak, they have not yet been able to change the nature of the country’s political system. A year after the country’s first non-military president took office, Egypt’s political situation became more or less similar to the way it had been before 2011. The structure of the relationship between the state and the society in Egypt, highly affected by vast military influence, could be explained through Guillermo O'Donnell’s model of “Bureaucratic Authoritarianism”. The Islamists’ weakness in establishing a powerful government granted a proper excuse for the military to obtain direct rule over the country through a modern 21st -century coup d’état. The basis for legitimizing this move, in addition to the Islamists’ weakness, was the claim that the 2011 coup d’état had the same public support as the 1952 coup d’état. Consequently, the military enacted legal mechanisms and introduced a presidential candidate who ultimately won the elections, giving back the military its previous position. It seems that the military authoritarian government in Egypt would enjoy relative legitimacy by focusing on providing economic and political stability, while paving the way for preserving its own long-term politico-economic interests. Therefore, it is likely that if the status quo– which relies upon widespread repression of the Islamists and the weakness and passivity of the liberal movements– is maintained, the authoritarian military rule over Egypt will continue

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This is quite an ignominious distinction… There has been a lot of ink spilled over the last several days looking into the divisions within the War Cabinet and how that is playing out in the broader public (both in Israel and the wider world). That an Israeli PM looks poised to stand in the same dock as the country’s nemesis, just behind the Russian president in the queue, can’t just be chalked up solely to antisemitism or anti-Israel sentiment. There has been too much reporting on the political failures that have been missing as the IDF stands at the brink of a final push to eradicate Hamas from power. No plan has been floated on how Gaza will be governed after Hamas. How can that be good for Israel or Palestinians? I saw an insightful interview on Sunday with Gen. David Petraeus on how the U.S. found success in routing Al Queda from Fallujah, Iraq, in 2004. It worked there, but that requires demonstrating that life after Hamas will be different — better and safer — for Gazans (and Israelis), the former of whom must be a part of a political solution. The alternatives are either occupation or anarchy. The latter is what propelled Hamas to be elected back in 2006. Yes, release the hostages, but then what? The hostages will be found (hopefully more alive than not), but what happens after that? That we still don't know what that answer looks like is, I believe, the ultimate indictment of Bibi’s vacuous leadership. We should expect more from the PM of Israel!

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⚠️ Publication Alert ⚠️ My latest opinion article "How Did the Exile Experience Impact Hamas’ Transformation?" published in Al Sharq Forum What are Israel’s plans in Gaza after October 7, 2023? When and how will the ongoing genocide in Gaza end? These have been the most important questions after Israel resorted to mass atrocity crimes. One of the most critical Israeli claims from the early days of the recent crisis was the complete defeat of Hamas, which also means driving it out of Gaza. But how this would even be possible, one may ask, since Hamas has been controlling Gaza for more than 15 years now and has established itself as the key player in contemporary Palestinian politics. This may come as a surprise to some of the followers of current events. Still, historical analysis reveals that forcing Palestinian movements to flee to neighboring countries has been a policy of Israel since its creation. Previously, it was the PLO. Now, Israel is trying to convince the international community that removing Hamas from Gaza is the only way for permanent peace. Yet, Israel has already attempted to banish Hamas from Palestine before, and the group learned from this experience. We need to refresh our memories to grasp the bigger picture.

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Columbia Law Review article that almost did not see the light of day due to the censorship of voices supporting Palestinian rights. "The law does not possess the language that we desperately need to accurately capture the totality of the Palestinian condition. From occupation to apartheid and genocide, the most commonly applied legal concepts rely on abstraction and analogy to reveal particular facets of subordination. This Article introduces Nakba as a legal concept to resolve this tension. Meaning “Catastrophe” in Arabic, the term “al-Nakba” (ﺔﻜﻨﻟا) is often used to refer to the ruinous process of establishing the State of Israel in Palestine. But the Nakba has undergone a metamorphosis; it has evolved from a historical calamity into a brutally sophisticated structure of oppression. This ongoing Nakba includes episodes of genocide and variants of apartheid but remains rooted in a historically and analytically distinct foundation, structure, and purpose. This Article therefore proposes to distinguish apartheid, genocide, and Nakba as different, yet overlapping, modalities of crimes against humanity." https://lnkd.in/e5stfdeC

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In my latest article for The National Interest on the impact of the death of President #Raisi on #Iran's political landscape, I argue that: 1- The death of President #Ebrahim_Raisi is unlikely to significantly affect #Iran's ongoing affairs, as authority over major national issues primarily rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali #Khamenei. Additionally, given Raisi's background as a judicial figure rather than a seasoned bureaucrat, his absence might not critically impact administrative continuity. In Raisi's cabinet, the chief bureaucrat was his vice president, Mohammad #Mokhber. 2-However, #Raisi's death could have a significant impact on #Iran’s political landscape in the post-Ayatollah Khamenei era. Since 2014, the Islamic Republic has been elevating Raisi from a relatively unknown figure to a national leader, positioning him either to be Iran's next #Supreme_Leader or to ensure a smooth and swift transition of power to Ayatollah Khamenei's successor. His absence might destabilize this process, particularly since it involved marginalizing other conservative figures who were deeply entrenched in the establishment and could have guaranteed a smooth transition. These figures include Ali #Larijani, former Speaker of the Parliament; his brother Ayatollah #Amoli Larijani, a former Chief Justice; and Mohammad Bagher #Ghalibaf, the current Speaker. 3- While I also noted that the Islamic Republic might have a contingency plan, such as promoting Ayatollah Alireza #Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, the uncertainty remains whether the 85-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei has sufficient time to promote another candidate effectively. Feel free to check out the full article for a deeper analysis of these dynamics.

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I am pleased to share with you my article published by Almuntaqa Journal, "Policies without Sovereignty: Palestinian Electricity under Occupation in Gaza". This study sheds light on the electricity sector in the Occupied Palestinian Territories since 1967, with a focus on the Gaza Strip. It explores the determinants of public policies regulating this sector following the establishment of the Palestinian Authority in 1993. The study addresses the outcomes of these policies and their impact on the electricity sector under occupation, and the repercussions of liberalizing the sector, which began with the establishment of the Oslo Accords’ economic parameters and took root after 2008. The study proposes strengthening reliance on alternative energy sources for electricity production, and restructuring the electricity sector by centralizing production, distribution, and management through a national, public, and social corporation. https://lnkd.in/duHJ7PAw

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COP29 | Higher Education As Azerbaijan gears up to host COP29, THE is holding the Climate Action Impact Forum in Baku during 11-12 September in partnership with Sumgayit State University (https://lnkd.in/g9qsmAN6). The forum will convene an international array of university leaders, policymakers, and industry trailblazers to focus on how universities must play a pivotal role in meeting the needs of current and future generations by making climate action (SDG13) a core institutional objective (https://lnkd.in/gtuT2rHy). #cop29 #university #highereducation #sdg13 #climateaction

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Iran’s water policy is discriminatory and an example of #EnvironmentalRacism with specific regions and ethnic groups #DeliberatelyImpoverished damaged and threatened by policymakers, a new study says. #WaterScarcity lies at the core of Iran’s environmental crises. Approximately 28 million of Iran’s 85 million residents reside in water-stressed areas, a situation identified as ‘water bankruptcy’. This is particularly the case in the central, industrialised regions. Other “donor basin” regions – which have been the site of intensive water transfer and other engineering interventions deployed by the Government to deal water shortage of the central regions – suffer from drought and soil erosion. The study, by Dr Allan Hassaniyan, from the University of Exeter, argues policies pursued by policymakers are leading to impoverishment and unsustainable development. The study says politicians have made the situation worse through decisions about water supply and security is influenced by #nepotism and #EthnicFavoritism . To realise their aim of transferring water to their home provinces and supplying their own businesses officials have ordered rivers to be diverted, building hundreds of dams and thousands of kilometres of tunnels and canals, incurring significant financial expenditures for the state. Dr Hassaniyan examined policy papers, government documents, political campaign speeches, and other materials. Dr Hassaniyan said: “The state’s #SystematicExploitation of water and other natural resources has resulted in socioecological deterioration in Iran’s peripheral regions, home to #Kurds #Arabs #Gilaks #Turkmens #Baluchis and others. Essentially, the policy of water transfer is ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’ – in the Iranian context, robbing water from Ch & B, Khuzestan, and Kurdistan to create wealth and growth in the central part of Iran. “It has caused #devastation and #injustice . Issues faced by people in the donor regions include drought and soil erosion affecting agriculture, dust waves and sandstorms, health, particularly respiratory, issues, #MassMigration and #unemployment . #SoilErosion is widespread across Iran, making many regions both flood-prone and desertified. Official statistics reveal that 14 provinces of Iran are suffering from land subsidence. Soil erosion has also caused dust waves and sandstorms in donor basin areas in the periphery, resulting in respiratory health issues and cancer. Since the 1990s, the dam building sector in Iran has experienced substantial growth, being elevated to the top of the country’s priority list for development initiatives. Many of Iran’s dams have safety issues, either because environmental safety evaluations were not passed, the dams were constructed without receiving environmental and safety approval, or no safety assessment was carried out. Many of Iran’s dams, particularly those that supply drinking water to local communities, are in poor condition.

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An interesting foray into some diplomatic history and insights on the first leaders of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan - keeping in mind, of course, that memoirs are by nature subjective https://lnkd.in/eBhEgw86

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This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Sanam Vakil about the fallout from President Raisi’s death, how Gulf states are likely to react, and the feasibility of U.S. policy options going forward. Sanam goes on to argue that: 💡 Raisi's death will provide an opportunity for political contenders and pose a challenge to the system. 💡 Iran will not be able to immediately build back Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's networks with Arab leaders. 💡 The region should develop a new joint security architecture to centralize conflict management and communication. 💡 The United States can leverage Iran's desire to avoid a broader conflict to secure new terms of engagement. Find out more and listen to the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/e3Z4F7ja

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On April 13, one of our Campus Media Fellows, Adi Moran, was published in ynet News, about how UNRWA, which is supposed to provide support to Palestinians living in Gaza, has had a long history of promoting Jew-hatred and support for terrorism. It also had employees that participated in the October 7 massacre in southern Israel by Hamas terrorists, and ultimately is an organization that does more harm than good for innocent Palestinians. A new organization must be created that is centred on building a future of co-existence and peace within the region. https://lnkd.in/gb-UttdD

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Happy to see the next report developed by my professors and MPP cohort from United Nations University-MERIT on migration policy of Azerbaijan. I am so proud that I also had the opportunity to be part of this valuable work by being involved in the development of the report “Overview of Migration Policies in the Selected Countries and the Lessons Learned for the Republic of Azerbaijan”. Many thanks to Prof.Dr. Melissa Siegel for her guidance and valuable support! ♥️ #MPP #migrationstudies #migrationpolicy #research #icmpd #dovletmiqrasiyaxidmeti

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Many are asking whether peace can ever be achieved in the Middle East. In this interview with Conversations that Matter, social entrepreneur @GidiGrinstein, author of IN(SIGHTS) with co-author @Ari Afilalo, discusses what has led to the current situation and provides insights about how peace can be achieved. Gidi is the founder of the Reut Group, a nonpartisan research, strategy, and leadership organization. His book brings together lessons from the past thirty years and is a must-read for anyone interested in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. You can listen to his interview here: https://loom.ly/M-P8YTQ #middleeast #insights #currentaffairs

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https://lnkd.in/ek5hcZC5 Persian Jedaal tv presentation. The topic of discussion includes, The new round of Israel's psychological war inside Iran: who gives Israel the assist from inside?

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Happy to arrive in Azerbaijan to attend the Shusha Global Media Forum titled Unmasking False Narratives: Confronting Disinformation. Our panel will speak about the impact of AI on media. I would be happy to hear your thoughts over how AI is impacting journalism. #Baku #Shusha #Azerbaijan #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Journalism

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Brilliant. --------- "Underpinning the demands was a call for the university to diminish ties with Israel and increase ties with the Palestinians in Gaza. In short, the protesters were determined that the university should take sides in the conflict in Israel and Gaza. Other demands would have led to having political goals guide core aspects of the university’s institutional approaches, from how we invest our endowment to when and how I make statements. Faculty members and students are more than free to engage in advocacy on one side or the other. But if the university did so as an institution, it would no longer be much of a university." YOU CAN READ THIS FOR FREE https://lnkd.in/gu6QzPCW

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