Naima Green-Riley

Sharing this article I recently published with the Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)! ___ Contrary to the long-held logic that giving Guam a stronger, more autonomous voice will undermine U.S. strategic interests, failing to provide Guam with a stable pathway of interest advancement beyond Congress hinders its development and with it the federal government’s ability to achieve soft-power advantages and basic military readiness in the Indo-Pacific theater... Read now:

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👉Here's a shoutout to thank the U.S. Department of State for the declassification of thousands of documents from Strobe Talbott's State Department Papers in their Freedom of Information Act Virtual Reading Room - https://lnkd.in/ePFKt8Ww 👉I'm grateful to the National Security Archive George Washington University for submitting the Freedom of Information Act Request that brought the processing and the final release of Talbott’s State Department Papers starting in 2019 under FOIA Case F-2017-13804. 👉Since then, about 4000 documents have been made publicly available in the State Department’s Virtual Reading Room – and the collection is still growing as more evidence is being released on a monthly basis. 👉Here's how to use the FOIA search site: Go to the field "seach terms," type in "Talbott," and you obtain 4464 hits. You can then sort the documents chronologically in ascending or descending order or according to release date - and you have the option to refine your search and to use additional search terms such as "NATO" which bring 1024 hits for instance. You can download each document and save them on your computer to create your own archive. 👉The Talbott papes are unique in the way they shine new light on U.S. foreign policy in the post Cold War era. They give us an opportunity to see pivotal issues through Talbott's lens including NATO enlargement, the relationship between NATO and Russia and Ukraine in the 1990s, the wars in Bosnia and Kosovo, NATO's peacekeeping efforts as well as Talbott's nuclear diplomacy toward India and Pakstian after both countries had tested nuclear weapons in the late 1990s. 👉The Talbott papers are a key source to teach post-Cold War history. They help us to get an archivally informed understanding about the historical origins of Russia's war against Ukraine and the current NATO-Russia confrontation. 👉More posts to come.

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My latest RAND report with Howard Wang looks at how the Chinese military thinks about the role of overseas basing in wartime We conclude that Chinese military writings suggest that the PLA has neither the intent nor the capability to use overseas military bases to launch preemptive attacks or other offensive operations on U.S. forces or interests through at least 2030. While Chinese overseas military basing remains important to monitor, the authors' research shows that Chinese bases overseas are unlikely to become threats to U.S. interests and forces during this time frame. The authors also note that any PLA shift toward conducting offensive operations from its overseas bases may be accompanied by specific indications and warnings that the U.S. government can monitor.

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Last two hours on Freedom’s Frontier before going back stateside for next assignment. It’s been a great three years in Korea. Thanks to all my USFK and ROK colleagues for the support during the assignment. I’ll reflect back over the assignment during the next few months in a few professional journals, but top three takeways. 1. It’s time to consolidate forces into a Nottheast Asia Command for unity of effort. 2. The area is called the “Iron Triangle” for a reason. We face three nuclear armed adversaries less than a 1,000 km away from our forces on the Korean Peninsula. Stop being myopically focused on single threats. 3. Patience is a virtue. Not every action deserves a counter reaction.

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H.R. 8038, the “21st Century Peace through Strength Act,” introduced by House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Michael McCaul, passed in the House by 360 votes. If passed by the Senate and signed into law, it would represent a significant stride in shaping U.S. policy to support the Iranian people's Resistance to end theocratic rule in Iran. Chairman McCaul should be commended for introducing H.R. 8038. Special thanks should go to representatives Michael Lawler, Jim Banks, Nathaniel Moran, and French Hill, who introduced the original Iran-related language in H.R. 8038 and have co-sponsored either H.Res. 100 and/or H.Res. 1148 in the 118th Congress, which “recognizes the rights of the Iranian people and their struggle to establish a democratic, secular, and nonnuclear Republic of Iran.” H.R. 8038 has 15 divisions, six directly opposing the Iranian regime. The goal of the ‘‘Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum Act’’ or the ‘‘SHIP Act’’ is to reduce the Iranian regime’s revenue from oil exports, which funds terrorism. The Fight and Combat Rampant Iranian Missile Exports Act, the "FIGHT CRIME Act," aims to hinder Tehran's development and proliferation of ballistic missiles and drones. The Mahsa Amini Human Rights and Security Accountability Act, the "MAHSA Act," highlights the role of Ebrahim Raisi as someone who “has supported the recent crackdown on protestors and is a rights violator himself, having served on a ‘death commission’ in 1988 that led to the execution of several thousand political prisoners in Iran.” This act aims to sanction Iranian regime officials for human rights abuses and support for terrorism, including Supreme Leader Khamenei and, its President Ebrahim Raisi. The "No Technology for Terror Act" makes permanent existing U.S. export control restrictions that prohibit the transfer of American-made technology to the Iranian regime to build weapons systems such as drones and missiles. The "Holding Iranian Leaders Accountable Act of 2024" aims to increase transparency regarding the Iran regime leaders’ finances. The "Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act of 2023" aims to limit the purchase of the Iranian regime’s petroleum or petroleum products.

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Check out my latest Religion & Global Affairs newsletter. I break down the recent Pew Research Center report on religion and highlight areas of concern and possibilities. https://lnkd.in/dWkibfgE

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Always an exciting day when you publish a paper. Today I'd like to share new work in Economica on why some capable modern states allow parts of their territory to be governed by non-state actors. Michael Callen, Saad Gulzar, Arman Rezaee, and I started this project back in 2012 because we were puzzled by why so many strong states seemed to leave large regions to non-state actors. We focused on Pakistan's colonial-era Frontier Crimes Regulation, which delegated governance to pre-colonial tribal councils in large parts of Pakistan, and was rolled back in stages from 1901 through 2018.  The largest rollbacks happened during the Green Revolution in places which benefited the most from new agricultural technologies. In this case, when technology increased the returns to governing, the state expanded. This looks like a state choosing where within its borders to actively govern based on simple cost-benefit analysis. Eli Berman, Austin Lee Wright, Renard Sexton, Aila Matanock, Aaron Miller, PhD, Kyle Atwell.

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Excited to share my latest column for HS Today! In this piece, I delve into the analysis of Hezbollah's escalating attacks in the Middle East following the Hamas October 7 attacks. Check it out for insights into this concerning trend. #Hezbollah #Terrorism #MiddleEastSecurity https://lnkd.in/eeJAHb5R 

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4/27/24 National Security News and Commentary https://conta.cc/4dk49bR 1. Xi and Blinken Trade Small Nods Over a Large Gap 2. In war-battered Gaza, residents grow angry with Hamas 3. Britain Does Its Part in Ukraine and on Defense Spending By Rishi Sunak 4. Opinion | What Students Read Before They Protest 5. Secret meetings, social chatter: How the Columbia protest sparked a student revolt 6. Inside the Pro-Palestinian Protests Disrupting Columbia University 7. Putin Didn’t Directly Order Alexei Navalny’s February Death, U.S. Spy Agencies Find 8. A Surge of Wartime Brain Injuries Is Changing Lives—and Offering Lessons 9. America’s Military Isn’t Providing Enough Bang for the Buck 10. Chinese state media backs US college campus protesters: 'Justified' 11. Terry Glavin: Iran is the China-funded fulcrum of global terror 12. Is China Rethinking its Invasion of Taiwan? 13. Why China risks US sanctions arming Russia: survival 14. TikTok ban won't solve foreign influence, data privacy problems 15. US is no longer the arsenal of democracy 16. Alaska an important Special Operations training ground, as Arctic sees interest from Russia and China 17. Philippines' counter-terrorism strategy still stalled after 7 years since the 'ISIS siege' on Marawi 18. Somalia detains U.S.-trained commandos over theft of rations 19. Blinken tells CNN the US has seen evidence of China attempting to influence upcoming US elections 20. Asia’s next war could be triggered by a rusting warship on a disputed reef 21. Baltimore principal was framed by school athletic director using AI to fabricate racist attack

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The Gaza war, with its potential for regional escalation, is just one (albeit major) concern in a region prone to instability, insecurity, and unpredictability. This paper puts the evolving crisis and nuclear proliferation concerns in the Middle East into global context, alongside other U.S. foreign and domestic policy priorities, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, competition with China, and the U.S. economy. The paper highlights how the United States and its allies have adapted and established new partnerships. Regarding the U.S. economy, the paper draws attention to how the landmark U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, including $370 billion in tax credits for the renewable energy industry, could represent both an opportunity to work with developing states on rare earth materials but could also become another source of tension with China over trade policy. The paper concludes that the risks associated with instability in the multilateral political and trading system, on which great power and regional relations pivot, are as urgent to resolve as the short-term imperatives of regional crises. https://lnkd.in/dr35Q429

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The political situation in Yemen has been completely upended by regional and domestic fallout wrought by Houthi attacks on maritime shipping and the conflict in Gaza. Read more in The Yemen Review Quarterly: January-March 2024: https://lnkd.in/e3Z-ZGdQ

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Attacks between #Iran and #Israel highlight the latest edition (Apr 19) of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy Weekly Forecast Monitor, which had previously warned of a high risk of military escalation between the two countries  https://lnkd.in/eVBeB-Dh

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Though published nearly one month ago, this piece captures many of the risks and challenges in Georgia's current political climate. The points hold today, and will remain relevant from now through the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Worth the read. https://lnkd.in/ddmNT_G4

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Last year Kelsey P. Norman, Ph.D., Nathan Citino and I wrote an article on 75 years of #Palestinian #displacement for the Migration Policy Institute. To mark #Nakba day, I want to highlight it as a lot of it still applies today, although it has been incredibly exacerbated by the unprecedented number of #IDPs in #Gaza. You can give it a read here if you're interested: https://lnkd.in/ddk3duNx

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A riveting account of the effort to “slow things down” after the Iranian missile and drone attack. Thanks to Laura Rozen for including my thoughts, which I've expanded a bit here:   Official and unofficial U.S.-Iran back channel diplomacy since the Damascus strike on April 1 helped to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control, at least for now. Consistent messaging across multiple channels clarified both side’s thinking, spelling out intentions and redlines. Early on the U.S. made clear that it was not involved in the strike. Iran informed the U.S. that retaliatory measures were inevitable, relaying the nature and scope of the response over time. While urging restraint, one clear redline for the U.S. was no targeting of American forces or facilities. For Iran, a redline was no direct U.S. involvement in any response by Israel. Biden telling Netanyahu the U.S. will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran is notable. Both sides communicated they are not seeking a direct conflict or a wider regional war -- a consistent message since Oct 7. Both continue to emphasize reducing tensions while signaling an interest in resuming de-escalation efforts initiated after the Tower 22 incident in Jordan. There are some parallels to Iran’s response to the killing of Soleimani. A catastrophic escalation and a broader regional conflict have now been avoided twice. We might not be so lucky next time.

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Here's my latest for Al-Monitor on Iran-Russia relations:

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This is an important part of the acceleration of emerging tech. Get capabilities to representative environments quickly and then diligently (but quickly) assess the tech with a strong focus on how it fits in a broader architecture.

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