Michael Kubzansky

Digital technology—and now Gen AI—may be unique in the history of technological advances. It has grown rapidly and pervades all of society. A litany of basic social functions depends on it. It has its own self-learning capacities. Its inner workings and complexity now evade mass understanding. These attributes, along with anxieties about existential risks, contribute to a feeling of inevitability that nothing can be done to alter its path.

We must counter this narrative. Americans can… Show more

Digital technology—and now Gen AI—may be unique in the history of technological advances. It has grown rapidly and pervades all of society. A litany of basic social functions depends on it. It has its own self-learning capacities. Its inner workings and complexity now evade mass understanding. These attributes, along with anxieties about existential risks, contribute to a feeling of inevitability that nothing can be done to alter its path.

We must counter this narrative. Americans can steer, shape, and govern digital technology in service of a democratic society. To succeed, we must stop measuring success simply by the speed and scale of digital tech advances and prioritize how it can help drive a positive vision for society. Show less

No self-respecting VC would ever use 1990s data and assumptions for building their valuation models in 2023. Why should our economy?

Written with Lindsay Owens, PhD, of Groundwork Collaborative

Is there a trade-off between financial return and social impact? Many impact investors are eager to answer “Yes” or “No”. Our experience at Omidyar Network has led us to a different answer: “It depends.” In some cases—perhaps even most—a strong positive correlation does exist between financial return and social impact. In other cases, a company can generate significant social impact even if its financial return is modest. We discuss the evolution of our framework for deciding under what… Show more

Is there a trade-off between financial return and social impact? Many impact investors are eager to answer “Yes” or “No”. Our experience at Omidyar Network has led us to a different answer: “It depends.” In some cases—perhaps even most—a strong positive correlation does exist between financial return and social impact. In other cases, a company can generate significant social impact even if its financial return is modest. We discuss the evolution of our framework for deciding under what circumstances we would accept such tradeoffs in this new SSIR piece. We argue that one can, in certain circumstances, accept below market returns in exchange for not just direct impact on beneficiaries, but also for a clear impact on the market as a whole. Show less

Standing at the convergence of impact investing and venture capital, frontier capital focuses on low- to lower-middle-income people in emerging markets. This report underlines the immense potential of new business models to serve this population, generating both outsized impact and strong financial returns. The report also underscores the need to segment the opportunity by matching the right investors with the right investment opportunities.

Five paths to scale in early stage impact investing

Microfranchising has been a constant buzzword in the world of market-based solutions to poverty, usually aimed at either retail or sales agent franchising. Yet there are little data available about the economics of such models.

This primer aims to provide a data-driven perspective on the conditions under which direct sales agent models are most likely to succeed, highlights how these models are applied to health and the barriers they face in the health sector, and examines case study… Show more

Microfranchising has been a constant buzzword in the world of market-based solutions to poverty, usually aimed at either retail or sales agent franchising. Yet there are little data available about the economics of such models.

This primer aims to provide a data-driven perspective on the conditions under which direct sales agent models are most likely to succeed, highlights how these models are applied to health and the barriers they face in the health sector, and examines case study examples. Based on the characteristics and constraints of the direct sales agent model, this primer proposes three direct sales agent archetypes that could serve as guidelines for donors, social enterprises, and health goods manufacturers for future application of the model Show less

"Why Business Models Matter" is Chapter 2 in a new Brookings book: Getting to Scale: How to bring development solutions to millions of poor people (I encourage everyone to explore and purchase the full book at the URL above). This chapter synthesizes many of the themes around business models, impact investing, time to scale, and other topics that the Monitor Inclusive Markets team has explored over the last five years regarding ways the private sector can address development challenges.

Taking lessons from Monitor's report "Promise and Progress", this primer examines the prospects for mobile-based applications that aim to directly provide health services or information to BoP populations

Part of Brookings' new publication on "Old Problems, New Solutions: Harnessing Technology and Innovation in the Fight Against Global Poverty"

Of the roughly 500 – 800 million people that have some form of access to formal financial services, only 25% have had even the most basic financial education—a figure that is dwarfed by the estimated 2 billion people who are unbanked or underbanked. This report looks at the economics and the business case for providing financial capability to low income consumers in emerging markets, and calls for new approaches that are not traditional classroom-based financial education.

This working paper estimates the market size and opportunity to employ African workers from lower income segments in the growing digital job market, especially that of BPO outsourcing. It identifies key interventions required to move the field forward, and calls out key uncertainties. This document become one of the contributing analyses that led to Rockefeller Foundation's Digital Jobs Africa program.

Detailed review of over 430 market-based approaches to social change in 9 African countries (South Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Senegal, Nigeria, etc), including detailed analysis of the economics of business models, in order to understand which models can deliver social impact at scale, and do so in a commercially viable fashion. Also draws implications for investors, donor agencies, and other actors aiming to catalyze private approaches in Africa

Article explores the difficulty that MNCs and other enterprises have when attempting to sell to -- or supply from -- base of the pyramid consumers. Success almost always requires developing a new business model rather than using an existing business model that serves middle- and upper-income segments in emerging markets.

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) realized considerable success in India in the 2000s by providing credit services to the poor for investment and income smoothing. The growth of MFIs drew the attention of other organizations looking to provide goods and services to members of lower income segments in India. Few early pilots to distribute via MFIs were successful, and most had stopped short of scale.

Monitor's research examined previous and ongoing experiments with MFI channel… Show more

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) realized considerable success in India in the 2000s by providing credit services to the poor for investment and income smoothing. The growth of MFIs drew the attention of other organizations looking to provide goods and services to members of lower income segments in India. Few early pilots to distribute via MFIs were successful, and most had stopped short of scale.

Monitor's research examined previous and ongoing experiments with MFI channel expansion and has identified five models of leveraging MFI networks that show the greatest potential for different types of products and different distribution networks. The report also presents a series of key recommendations for organizations launching expansion ventures - both MFIs and product providers - that should help such initiatives to be both effective and impactful in the future Show less

Analysis of over 270 inclusive market enterprises to discover - through detailed economic analysis and understanding of consumer behavior - which business models have promise in both operating profitably and engaging low-income segments. Draws implications for investors, donors, and others who wish to support such firms.

“Big Data, Small Credit” focuses on the promise of a rapidly-emerging cohort of pioneering firms that are disrupting traditional risk assessment techniques in the emerging markets. For financial services providers, this is a new approach to knowing your customer—and one with revolutionary potential. In the world’s six biggest emerging economies alone—China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey—these “Big Data, Small Credit” (BDSC) services have the potential to help 325 million - 580… Show more

“Big Data, Small Credit” focuses on the promise of a rapidly-emerging cohort of pioneering firms that are disrupting traditional risk assessment techniques in the emerging markets. For financial services providers, this is a new approach to knowing your customer—and one with revolutionary potential. In the world’s six biggest emerging economies alone—China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey—these “Big Data, Small Credit” (BDSC) services have the potential to help 325 million - 580 million people gain access to formal credit for the first time.

The bulk of the report focuses not on the credit providers themselves but on the consumers who are already finding great value in their offerings. Very little has been captured about the individuals who use these services. ON commissioned in-depth interviews with more than 300 “early adopters” in Kenya and Colombia. They were able to sophisticatedly rank different types of private data on a spectrum from “more” to “less” private, and most (about 7 in 10) are currently willing to trade data they consider private in exchange for formal, convenient, unsecured credit. In addition, they raised concerns about the security and integrity of their data, and articulated strong views about what would constitute a violation of their trust.

The report profiles pioneer firms like Cignifi, which develops risk scores for emerging-market consumers using their mobile phone usage data. To date, the company has scored more than 150 million consumers in 13 countries, decreasing acquisition costs by 40 percent. Another marquee investee, Lenddo, has created a risk management algorithm that uses potential customers’ social media activity—including Facebook, Twitter, and Linkedin—to prove their identity and creditworthiness. Show less