Lindsay Knott, MBA

Ulta Beauty's recent Q1 earnings report highlights a significant shift in the beauty retail landscape, suggesting that the industry may be entering a period of moderation following years of explosive growth. While Ulta saw a modest 3.5% increase in net sales and a 1.6% rise in comparable store sales, these figures represent a slowdown compared to previous quarters. CEO Dave Kimbell attributed this deceleration to intensified competition and changing consumer preferences. Despite new brands and strong engagement with luxury products, Ulta experienced mid-single-digit declines in makeup sales, a sign that last year's growth surge is tapering off. This shift is not unique to Ulta; the broader beauty sector is grappling with similar challenges, as indicated by rising competition from online platforms like Amazon and successful in-store collaborations such as Sephora within Kohl's. Do the trends Ulta reference point to a potential industry-wide slowdown as inflation and economic pressures mount, impacting consumer spending habits even in the resilient beauty category? The phenomenon known as the "lipstick effect"—where consumers continue to purchase small luxuries during economic downturns—appears to be losing some of its protective power. Ulta's strategic adjustments, including lowering annual sales guidance and planning new brand collaborations, aim to regain momentum. However, these measures reflect a broader recalibration within the beauty industry, signaling that even this previously robust sector is not immune to the evolving economic landscape and competitive dynamics. #BeautyTrends #UltaBeauty #CosmeticsIndustry #MakeupSales #EconomicImpact #BeautyMarket #ConsumerTrends #RetailGrowth #InflationImpact #LipstickEffect

9

2 Comments

#HotTake: Retail stores aren’t a shortcut to success. Retail offers bigger POs, visibility, and cash flow Yet, it doesn’t ensure brand sustainability Case in point: JLo Beauty Despite celeb status and prime placement at Sephora, She faced challenges resulting in a US exit Retail alone doesn’t secure loyalty or repeat sales Placement isn’t guaranteed forever For lasting success, think beyond the retail PO Some markers of a sustainable brand include: Authenticity, community, differentiated formulas, and true fans Building a lasting brand legacy requires more than a retail presence – 👋🏾 Hi, I’m Monique, a former retail buyer turned beauty industry advisor who helps emerging brands ready to scale at big retail. If you are ready to scale and invest, book a discovery call, and let’s see if we can work together.

27

12 Comments

I love everything about this Laura Mena! In-store is making its round again, awesome to see it explained through pop-culture 🙌 Would love to see you explain all the acronyms! #retailmedia #Commerce #traditionalinstore KINESSO KINESSO Commerce IPG Commerce

30

2 Comments

Selling on Amazon is a big question for many emerging outdoor brands. Some of the brands I work with have no Amazon presence, while others do a majority of their business on Amazon. Many major outdoor brands are on Amazon, though there are plenty of exceptions like Patagonia, BIRKENSTOCK, KÜHL Clothing Company, etc. So what's the right strategy? First of all, I would only ever recommend selling exclusively via your own storefront on Amazon, so you control how your brand and products are presented and priced. Never sell directly to Amazon or allow your wholesale partners to sell on Amazon; otherwise, you lose all price control and it becomes a race to the bottom. PROS of Selling on Amazon: 1.  Amazon accounts for ~40% of ecommerce sales, so it can be a huge volume channel. 2.  CACs are typically lower than Meta or Google (though not the deal they once were). 3.  Payment processing costs are included in the marketplace commission (typically 15%). CONS of Selling on Amazon: 1.  Success typically requires running sponsored listings, adding cost and complexity. 2.  Winning "the buy box" may require using FBA (Fulfilled by Amazon), also adding cost and complexity. 3.  You don't own the customer, so you can't remarket to them (though there are tactics to flip them). 4.  Amazon will bid against you on Google (Search/PLA), likely driving up your ad costs. 5.  Returns rates are typically much higher than on your DTC site. 6.  Competitors, fraudsters and knock-off companies can use services like  Jungle Scout to find your sales winners to exploit. 7.  Smaller retailers may be less likely to pick-up your brand if it's on Amazon. So that's seven cons to three pros... the cons have it, right? Unfortunately, it's not that easy because that first pro is pretty huge. My advice to brands is do your homework and use tools like Jungle Scout to assess the competition and the opportunity. Then try to throw out preconceptions and carefully weigh the pros and cons to determine the right course for YOUR brand. What are your Amazon experiences? #OutdoorIndustry #StartUps

43

23 Comments

Complex and major initiatives often require an increased focus on initial expectation setting and managing expectations during the change. Also, a potential reminder that Wholesale can be an important channel and that many times a Both/And solution can surpass an Either/Or. Meeting a wide variety of customers using the Reach of E-commerce and Wholesale partners AND including the touch/experience at Nike Stores as well as stores in areas that may not easily be served by existing Nike Stores ( ~300 in the USA and ~1,000 globally). Your thoughts? Excerpts: Dive Insight: Nike’s Consumer Direct Offense and Acceleration plans are coming under attack in a new class action lawsuit that alleges two of the brand’s top executives misled investors about how successful the strategy was. “Throughout the Class Period, Defendants repeatedly touted the purported strength of Nike’s business model, and in particular, the claimed success of its digital and direct-to-consumer strategies to produce sustainable growth, while downplaying the significant competitive pressures facing the Company,” the lawsuit reads. The lawsuit recounted Nike’s efforts to ditch wholesale partners in 2020, which continued into 2022 in a much-discussed shift away from Foot Locker, as well as the retailer’s subsequent return to many of those partners when its DTC strategy didn’t deliver as intended. Indeed, on the back of disappointing sales results, Nike late last year rolled out a cost-savings plan aimed at driving growth and profitability. The plan included layoffs, as well as a simplification of its product portfolio, with executives referencing its shift to a DTC model as a reason for the cuts. “Since fiscal ’19, our investments in accelerating Nike’s consumer direct vision have created new operating capabilities, added tens of millions of new members to our member base and delivered a return of more than $12 billion of incremental revenue,” Friend said on a call with analysts at the time. “However, we have also added complexity and inefficiency. In this competitive environment, we need to accelerate our pace of innovation, elevate our marketplace experiences, maximize the impact of our storytelling, and increase our speed and responsiveness.” Donahoe followed that up in March by acknowledging that the company needed to make some “important adjustments” to its Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy, as Nike was not “performing at our potential.” #Nike #DTC #Retail

1

It's not just about rebates and sweepstakes; it's about understanding how your marketing impacts retail sales. With VTAGZ, you'll know exactly which content and strategies drive in-store purchases. Plus, you'll get valuable first-party data on consumer behavior, all tied to their phone number. It's a game-changer for targeting the right customers with the right messages. #RetailMarketing

13

I really like the thinking behind this partnership with Target. Target+, the 3rd party marketplace is going to be filled up with some of the best Shopify products for online and in some cases in-store placement. My question is - since Target does not offer fulfillment, does Shopify limit the products to those merchants who've been able to earn a Shop Promise badge for fast delivery? I would worry that drop shipper products that takes weeks to get would erode the confidence in the Target eCommerce brand. However, I think this could be a great leveler for enabling D2C brands to get access to Target shoppers and also participate in retail media with Roundel to accelerate their exposure.

2

1 Comment

Congratulations to StandUp Ventures portfolio company Max Retail on their $15M USD Series A led by Nosara Capital after an exceptional year of growth! Oh how I love optimization problems, and especially ones that support entrepreneurs 😭 Independent retail shops sit on an average of 22% excess inventory at any given time, representing ~$50K-$200K of financial losses each year. For small businesses that are often the pillars of their communities (& frequently women-owned!), these losses are HUGELY impactful. Before Max Retail, options to recuperate them were extremely limited (discounting items far below cost, sending to consignment, or donating for a tax write-off). Alone, a single store in a small town with one or two sizes of a SKU isn't meaningful enough to engage with for zero inventory marketplaces or online retailers, but in aggregate, Max Retail's network of 2,000+ retailers and real-time data acts seamlessly as a single source of new and often hard-to-find supply. Bringing these items online exponentially increases the pool of potential buyers, resulting in immediate cash relief and payouts 4-8x higher than the status quo of liquidation. And the proof is in the pudding. 89% of active sellers are selling inventory every single month, with some sellers making upwards of $250k per year. GMV has exploded 4x YoY, with an incredible 40% of new retailer leads coming from existing customers. The macro omnichannel opportunity for real-time, SKU-level, inventory, pricing, and sales data across the normally siloed brick-and-mortar independent retail market is limitless. Alongside AI-powered pricing and item allocation engines, Max Retail is able to pay sellers the maximum value possible for excess inventory, and help retailers understand live inventory performance and market value of every item they list. This ultimately underpins a foundation for a more efficient and productive market, getting the right products to the right buyers at the right time, place and price. We're so excited to continue supporting the INCREDIBLE Melodie van der Baan alongside the wonderful M13, The Artemis Fund , and Rethink Impact, LP. Onwards and upwards! 🚀 #fundingnews #seriesa #retaildata

47

3 Comments

James and I are interviewing Rachel Peters (Clean Age) this Friday for our pod, BrandBusters. CleanAge has been laser-focused on serving Gen Z, and they bucked the traditional 2010s CPG launch by going RETAIL FIRST instead of DTC FIRST. They have an awesome brand aesthetic and make products with better ingredients (and sustainable packaging). What should we ask Rachel? #CPG #podcasts #brandbusters

28

10 Comments

Digital Influence Dominates Pet Care! 🐶The American Pet Products Association (APPA) released their consumer shopping behavior report that highlights how pet parents are settling into new shopping patterns. 🛍️ $83B+ spent on pet products in 2023, by more than 113 million households, avg/HH $738 +7.4% vs previous year. Even as pet ownership flattens, inflation 📈 along with the continued “premiumization” across pet categories is driving revenue gains. EMARKETER forecasts align with modest single digit growth projected over the next few years.   🖥️ Omni-shopping is the new norm – representing nearly 80% of pet care dollars, spent by 57% of pet care shoppers. Omni-shoppers = larger HH Spends! Activating a holistic Omni strategy is critical in the space. This is being fueled by rapid gains in Pet Care eCommerce Penetration tipping 40% this year and projected to continue to increase! (EMARKETER) 🛒Retailers like Amazon and Walmart are capitalizing on the behavior with specific events like the recent Amazon Pet Days (May 7-8) and Walmart’s National Pet Month campaign for the month of May. These retailers are doubling down on Pet Care categories, creating new purchasing opportunities and leveraging the subscription model where appropriate.   📱 Millennial and Gen Z pet parents prefer visual platforms like YouTube & TikTok, to discover and learn about new pet products, highlighting the growing importance of having a visual and social platform strategy. Delivering authentic content with a focus on advocates instead of influencers will appeal this generation of consumers. See more - link in comments! #AmericanPetProducts #PetIndustry #PetBusiness #PetRetail #eCommerce #socialcommerce

48

10 Comments

eCommerce & CPG Strategy: What happened to Kohls? Terrific visual and write up by Neil Saunders below. Key Theme: (1) 🔐($2.3B) — “Kohl's sales have shrunk by $2.3 billion since 2019. That’s a pretty terrible number given consumer spending on retail rose by a dramatic $1.3 trillion over the same period.” Fun Facts: (13) Where Kohl’s lost customers and now shop instead… ✈️ TJMaxx — ~28% ✈️ Target — ~22% ✈️ Ross Stores, Inc. — ~18% ✈️ MARSHALLS LLC — ~18% ✈️ Amazon — ~18% ✈️ Homegoods — ~16% ✈️ Walmart — ~15% ✈️ Nordstrom Rack — ~13% ✈️ JCPenney — ~12% ✈️ Costco Wholesale — ~10% ✈️ Burlington Stores, Inc. — ~9% ✈️ DICK'S Sporting Goods — ~9% ✈️ Wayfair — ~8% See Neil’s full post: 👇🏼 “The Kohl’s losses are a combination of existing customers spending less and the complete defection of some shoppers. Over the past five years, Kohl’s has lost 1.3 million customers: people who used to visit Kohl’s, but now they don’t. Most of these folks still buy things so it’s interesting to see where they’re now shopping, or shopping more at, instead of Kohl’s. The diagram below traces the defections. The most notable thing is the gains being made by off-price retailers. TJX – with its TJMaxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods banners – is picking up a lot of trade. Ross, Nordstrom Rack, and Burlington are also in the mix. It’s no wonder off-price is doing so well when it’s gaining so many customers from chains like Kohl’s. What’s also notable is that online specialists don’t dominate. Amazon has picked up some trade, as has Wayfair, but neither are the main beneficiaries of Kohl’s woes. This underscores that the very simplistic narrative of ‘online killed…” is often far from the truth. It is also significant that Costco makes an appearance. Costco is a silent assassin. Many retailers don’t have it on the radar for non-food; but the reality is that Costco has a formidable non-food business. Retailers like Kohl’s don’t underperform because one large enemy comes in and swoops away all the custom. Their substantial loss of trade comes from many players nibbling away at their sales and market share.” #ecommerce #digital #omnichannel #strategy #cmo #cdo #ceo #cro #leadership #retailecommerceclub #cpg #privateequity #playtowin #thecpgview

118

7 Comments

Key EMARKETER stat: US ecommerce resale volume will hit $80.60 billion this year, a growth of 3.4% YoY, per our December 2023 forecast. Beyond the chart: Ecommerce resale volume is returning to growth after a 6.9% dip YoY in 2022 and a 2.5% one in 2023, per eMarketer forecast. But it still hasn’t returned to its pandemic high of $85.87 billion in 2021. Growth in the number of online fashion buyers has slowed, leading platforms to search for strategies to boost order values by offering luxury goods and courting wealthy shoppers. #ecommerce #resale #retailsales

6

The Path to Purchase Institute Retail Media Summit is SOLD OUT, but Pathformance is here! Retail media is one of the most talked about subject in our industry, so we are excited to dive deep into this topic with the top minds in the business! We are most excited about discussing these hot topics: - Investing for incremental brand growth - Understanding the holistic impact of retail media - Applying measurement to retail media Will we see you there? We world love to connect. Message sally@pathformance.com to set up time with our team! See you in Chicago! #pathformance #measurement #P2PI #RetailMediaSummit

20

Target is linking up with global commerce platform Shopify to bring customers even more choices when they shop Target.com. The retailer will offer a selection of Shopify’s popular merchants and products through Target Plus, its third-party digital marketplace. A thoughtfully chosen assortment of on-trend products and brands, like True Classic apparel and kids and baby clothier Caden Lane, will now be available through Target Plus. Additionally, U.S.-based Shopify merchants can apply to sell on Target Plus through Marketplace Connect, which is an app that enables merchants to sell and manage orders on leading marketplaces, including Target Plus. Furthering the partnership, Target will also become the first mass retailer to offer select Shopify merchants’ products in its physical stores in the coming months. | Progressive Grocer https://lnkd.in/gSSgNNwq #retail #supermarkets #grocery #Target #shoppers #brands #ecommerce

2

Exciting news! 🌟 Congrats to the team at Dôen for being named the Hottest Brand of the Summer by WWD! 🏆🎉 Below - 7 things they’re doing with ecomm helping them hit 40% YOY growth. Can't wait for what's next. 1. Great Imagery - Beautiful, feminine & natural photography - Connecting on a personal level - Showcase product AND evoke emotion 2. Super Detailed Product Information - Product-level size guides - Detailed descriptions include a sheerness index 3. Focus on Impact - Ethical production includes the use of natural & recycled fabrics - Partnerships with women-owned factories - Transparency around work to become more sustainable over time 4. Customer Connection - Actively listen to customer feedback - Adjust products and site info 5. Seamless Shopping - User-friendly site design - Easy navigation - Intuitive (but on brand) interfaces 6. Notification on Sold Out Products - Popular, sold out items let customers get notified on restock - Shoppers stay engaged and anticipate new releases 7. Engaging Digital Content - Emails are editorial featuring team members and friends - Products are released in ‘chapters’ - Telling stories and building excitement for each drop https://lnkd.in/g8Y6Fp-6

38

5 Comments

Check out this latest article by my business partner, Donna Belardi, about how some brands are finding success by adopting more sustainable and strategic approaches – ohttps://ow.ly/vSUv50SgAHv

5

Great article by Siro! If you are in retail and have interest in private brands, this is a fabulous summary of recommendations for how to innovate and drive engagement with shoppers. #dunnhumby

12

1 Comment

Big news today! I'm thrilled to announce PostPilot's Series A, which will help rapidly accelerate our mission to unlock a profitable direct mail channel for brands. Michael Epstein and I have each spent 25 years in eCommerce. We've used direct mail at every brand we've built, acquired, and sold. It was always high-ROI-but-miserable-to-use channel. . . Slow. Bad customer experience. Manual processes. Emailing CSVs. Delayed, confusing data. 🐢 Did I mention slow? 🐢 So Mike and I built PostPilot to be the platform and company WE always wanted. . . We've built an org that's. . . ➝Obsessed with speed and service ➝Leveraging and BUILDING cutting edge technology ➝Driving insane performance + value Our mission is even more important today than ever before. Meta's a dumpster fire, inboxes are harder to reach, cookies are disappearing, and marketers are stressed.   🔥 Which is why we’re 10Xing down on our mission.🔥 We've raised a significant strategic investment from Summit Partners, with participation (and partnership) from our longtime friends and supporters, Klaviyo co-founders Andrew Bialecki and Ed Hallen. With it, we're building a radically more powerful platform providing functionality and insights purpose-built to propel your brand forward.  (Big news is coming on that VERY soon. . .) Read our full fundraising announcement here: https://lnkd.in/eVDXCj-4 LFG.

436

116 Comments