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HoldCo. Markets LP.
Momentum continues in the #uranium space given last night's passage of the Russian uranium import ban as adopted unanimously by the US Senate. The month of April had other positive datapoints including further NPP startups in China (the latest being CGN's Fangchenggang unit 4 which is a HPR-1000 reactor) while Korea's Shin Hanul entered commercial operation amidst a backdrop of numerous other NPP plant life extension announcements. Elsewhere, Cameco reiterated FY/2024 production guidance as the Westinghouse acquisition really starts contributing to the bottom line. For more, follow @holdcomarkets ***Not investment advice, just opinion, observation & analysis. Pls note & read the disclaimer*** https://lnkd.in/gXc7-suU #nuclear #equityresearch #investmentbanking #nuclear #netzero #economics
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Bruce W. Harting
I repost these insightful notes about Ukraine because American media ignores Ukraine. Endless mind numbing coverage of Trump trials, countless TV channels covering sports and “reality TV”. While I am disappointed at the average Americans lack of interest or concern for Ukraine and geopolitics, this is not new in our history. Read the book Citizens of London to learn about how long it took FDR and the USA to join the fight against Hitler. The multiple mistakes made by FDR by waiting, while the NAZI blitz bombaded London for nights without end. The book focuses on three Americans living through the terror in London, urging the White House to do more. The US Ambassordor to Britain John Gilbert Winant, Averell Harriman and Edward R. Murrow.
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Kanwal Rekhi
US and NATO should more clearly define their goals in Ukraine war. Muddled thinking has produced muddled results. Are they interested in an outright Ukrainian victory? Is goal to stop Russians advancing any further than they have already? $61 billion aid heading Ukraine's way is a very good start but in my opinion, by itself, it is not enough. There is a headcount imbalance that needs to be overcome in one way or the other. A war of attrition will favor Russia. Ukraine needs to take the war to Russia itself and inflict some pain. That means missiles and not drones. Time to get serious and not make it a forever war.
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H. Perry Boyle, Jr.
For someone who invests in defense tech in Ukraine, this seems like an incredible waste of time, effort and money. I, a US citizen, am already invested in a company that makes exactly what is spec’d here. It exists and is deployed and is constantly updated based on battlefield feedback. We would be happy to make it for the US. Yet the US will literally reinvent this wheel—-at great expense. No US defense companies are investing in Ukraine’s domestic defense industry, the most innovative, battle tested and low cost DIB in the world today. Why not? 1. We wouldn’t want to upset the Russians, would we? 2. The US defense budget is more about US jobs than optimizing the spend for an actual war fighting operation 3. We have to keep the US defense bureaucracy going. These are not good reasons. World War 3 is being fought all over the globe today. When will the US wake up and get in the game? Mits Capital AFWERX Ashley Roque Lara Seligman Haley Britzky The Merge DefenseScoop Defense Brief Defense News Tony Capaccio Paul McLeary Connor O'Brien Jake Epstein Valerie Insinna Breaking Defense Defensemirror.com The Defense Post #ukraine Atlantic Council
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Marc Hohnstein
PART 3: The third "need" named by Bryen recalls the often circulated founding maxim of NATO, which is attributed to the British Lord Ismay ("to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down" - "to keep the Russians out, the Americans inside and the Germans down" ): "Thirdly, Russia must be kept out of Europe, that is, European countries must be prevented from concluding their own agreements with Moscow. If Kiev goes down, Europe and NATO will also go down." Should Moscow succeed in setting up a pro-Russian government in Kiev, the Europeans would in fact be dependent on coming back to a pragmatic coexistence with Moscow. According to Bryen, Germany plays a central role in this context. Although the current German government "does not want to talk to Russia," it only "at least not now." And Bryen expresses the US fear that this Berlin attitude could even change "in the near future." The final paragraph of the article, recalling a Freudian failure, expresses Washington's fears. In a few sentences, the US war goals become clear, or what must be prevented from the point of view of the US power elites on bending and breaking: "If Ukraine falls, Germany will have to change its policy. The easiest way for his administration to change direction is to blame the United States for something, for example, the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline. That would open the door for a conversation with Putin." In this US concern about European/German-Russian cooperation, what the former director of the US think tank Stratfor, George Friedman, had said in 2015, one year after the coup in Ukraine, resonates: A German-Russian (economic) cooperation is the biggest threat to the US.
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Chris Cottorone
Interesting note from this weekend's important and successful vote in the U.S. Congress on support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, with the vote on the Indo-Pacific region getting more supporters and fewer going against it: The Ukraine bill passed in a 311-112 vote, the Israel bill passed in a 366-58 vote, and the Indo-Pacific bill passed in a 385-34 vote. https://lnkd.in/gKcT2jE3
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Trond Johannessen
Deflecting a massive airborne attack of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have a cost. The Aegis missile defense system Standard Missile-3 fired from US vessels to take down (at least) 3 Iranian ballistic missiles cost some 10 - 20 million dollars per shot. The air-air AIM-7 Sparrow (Mach 4 speed) missiles cost USD 125.000 per pop. The AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles were probably used to take down cruise missiles - at 430.000 per missile. The M-SHORAD Stinger missile Inc-3, presumed cost-effective, only comes to market in 2027, so meanwhile Stinger missiles are 120.000 USD per missile for drone defense. https://lnkd.in/dVucaHfu #costofwar #iran #usa #israel #uk #france #raytheon #mshorad #sidewinder #stinger #sparrow #whopays
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Jim Angleton
Our #Envoy of Asia reports constantly contain #warnings relative to Xi back up against wall and threatening his leadership with PRC and CCP Members. This op-ed piece does affirm some of our Envoy assertions. Knights of Malta (US) Sovereign State. Federation of Autonomous Priories of St.John recommend this piece for a quick understanding of China’s intentions. United Nations Delegation of the European Union to the UN and other international organisations in Geneva Permanent Representation of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to the UN, WTO in Geneva UN Women UN Human Rights - Asia The White House Pentagon, US Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy Pentagon, US Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy U.S. Department of State https://lnkd.in/dhwFAHaQ
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H. Perry Boyle, Jr.
This is why the US needs to have its own HALEU industry. Ceding this industry to Russia was one of the dumbest things the US has done. The US is way behind China and Russia and should make HALEU production capacity at least as big a national priority as it has made semiconductors. Cheap energy is the entire basis for economic competitive advantage. When you can make it cheap AND clean, that is obviously the best possible outcome. Plus, nuclear energy has a small plant footprint and can easily be co-located to replace coal plants. HALEU needs to be a key topic for nuclear non-proliferation treaties. Robert Hargraves Ryan Pickering Zion Lights Office of Nuclear Energy, U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission American Nuclear Society Nuclear Energy Institute#nuclear #nuclearenergy #energy #energypolicy #Electricity Doug Houseman Doug Sheridan Matt Alvarez Matt Quist Michael Caravaggio Meredith Angwin #Renewables Bill Shevlin Ralph Birkhoff David Blackmon Oscar L. Martin Renewable Energy Clean Energy #solarenergy #grid #renewableenergy #electricity #netzero #inflationreductionact National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) https://lnkd.in/gJUAKHWt
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Dr Lani Kass
What Should a President Trump Do? The Budget Victor Davis Hanson The U.S. is broke. It owes over $35T, mostly to American and Chinese bond and T-bill holders. The interest alone costs ~ $1 trillion, larger than the defense budget. The debt is now 123% of the annual GDP… How can this be, when the average upper-middle-class earner pays 37% on fed tax, 10-13% CA tax, ~ 10% in FICA and Obamacare surcharges, and thousands in property and gas taxes? It isn’t hard to lose 60% of income to the government if one is honest and follows the tax code. When Biden says, “Pay your fair share!” he, of course, exempts Hunter on tax evasion charges, and his brothers, who likely never paid full tax on the vast quid-pro-quo sums they shook down from other countries. Nor does he mean the 50% of Americans who pay no income tax. Instead, Biden is targeting the upper-middle class, the 1-5% of Californians, for example, who pay over 50% of the state’s revenue. Yet the Biden administration is borrowing $1T every 90 days, mostly for entitlements or inefficient and counter-productive “green” projects. Why? Is it trying to win new constituents by giving away free stuff: amnesties, student loan forgiveness, sustenance for illegal aliens? The 2010 Simpson-Bowles “National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform” offered a methodical tax simplification/ spending reduction pathway to balanced budgets and eventual reduction in national debt. Had the Obama administration just pushed the recommendations of its own commission, $13T national debt would’ve been reduced to $9T by 2020 and perhaps $7T now (rather than $35T). We could still implement the commission’s recommendations on spending cuts, entitlement reform, and tax simplification, and begin balancing budgets on our way to national debt reduction. The problem is not in government or politics but in us, the people, who repeatedly shrug when our government borrows trillions for pet, wasteful projects. We are the culprits for weakening the country and destroying our financial system. If we don’t stop borrowing now, the only solutions are history’s civilization-ending remedies: hyper-inflation Weimar-Republic-style, Soviet—style appropriation of private wealth, or late Roman Republican-style cancellation of debts and defaults. We need to adopt an Eisenhower mindset of immediately calibrating every new expenditure in terms of how to fund it: Should we drain the strategic petroleum reserve? OK, where is the money to resupply it? Give Ukraine $12B?—Fine, but what tax, surcharge, or government cut will provide the replacement money? Perhaps slash commensurate foreign aid to Hamas and the West Bank, Yemen, or Nigeria? Welcome in 10 million unaudited illegal aliens?—Where are hundreds of billions of dollars to pay for their current hotel accommodations and food/health/legal/education support? Perhaps tax 15% on all remittances sent to illegal aliens’ countries of origin?
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R. Adam Smith
This will be an important theme in this election, and in the years ahead. https://lnkd.in/ewzHu2pn 🔎 IMO, the U. S. needs to fortify an increasingly meak defense budget More on this: U.S. Military Spending: Current Trends vs. Post-WWII Era **Post-WWII Era** After World War II, the United States maintained high military spending levels to support its new role as a global superpower and to counter the Soviet threat during the Cold War. In 1945, U.S. military spending was approximately $10.5 billion, accounting for 41% of the federal budget - This figure rose significantly with the onset of the Korean War in 1950, reaching $14.4 billion, which was 15% of the federal budget. **Cold War to the Early 2000s** During the Cold War, military spending remained a substantial part of the U.S. budget. Peaks were seen during the Korean and Vietnam Wars, and again during the Reagan administration's defense buildup in the 1980s. After the Cold War ended, there was a reduction in military expenditure during the 1990s. **Current Military Spending** In recent years, U.S. military spending has seen substantial fluctuations. The defense budget for FY 2024 is set at approximately $841.4 billion 🪙includes substantial allocations for various branches: 🛩️ $216.1 billion for the Air Force, 🛳️ $202.6 billion for the Navy, 💪165.6 billion for the Army, ⚜️$53.2 billion for the Marine Corps, and 🌖 $30.1 billion for the Space Force. …. Modern defense spending now represents about 13.3% of the federal budget, a decrease in proportion compared to the post-WWII era, but an increase in absolute terms due to inflation and the expanded scope of military operations and technology investments. ### Comparative Analysis **As a Share of GDP** Post-WWII, military spending was a significant portion of the GDP, at times exceeding 40% during WWII itself. Today, military spending is a smaller share of GDP, around 3.5%. **Inflation-Adjusted Comparisons** ….. today's military spending is considerably higher than in the immediate post-WWII years. However, while the absolute dollar amount has increased significantly, its impact has waned. 🌍 the next decade will be a test for Pax-Americana (as it was for the Roman’s Pax-Romana, a hallmark of Roman history, until the death of Marcus Aurelius 180CE, marking a time of unparalleled peace and prosperity in the Roman Empire).
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MARK DAVIS
The Siege of Melos in 416 BC by Athens might offer insights into the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. Melos faced a terrible choice: Die as a free man or live as a slave. The Athenians offered no moral justification for attacking Melos, but bluntly told the Melians they only needed Melos for their selfish ends. Melos thought Sparta would come to their aid, which they did not, and in the end, Melos was utterly destroyed. Ukraine can not win without a NATO intervention--sadly there is no Sparta. Ukraine can not win even with a steady supply of weapons and materials. Ukraine can not win with a successful PR campaign. Ukraine can not win by killing Russians. Ukraine can not win by striking Russian energy production. Ukraine can not win by sinking the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine can not win by striking deep into Russian territory. This conflict is personal and logic does not play a role. This conflict is about Russian power, Russian prestige, Russian honor, Russian standing, and about PUTIN. America and Europe can pound the war drum for all the world to hear but at the core, NONE deem Ukraine worth a confrontation with Russia, no matter how unlikely. For Americans, it ranks below the economy, crime, and immigration. Although most Western European nations rank the war in Ukraine as a high priority their population's willingness to serve in the military according to Gallup is below 20%. Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Austria, Spain, Czech Republic, United Kingdom, and France have become so emasculated that if a war did erupt they would find it challenging to field a fighting force.
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Tina Fordham
Check out our latest Navigator Plus video playbook. In this edition, I delve into: The likelihood of a ceasefire in the Middle East and implications of the White House's revised stance on Ukraine's use of U.S.-supplied long-range weapons Stay tuned for more insights on the upcoming EU Parliamentary elections. I am also available to provide comprehensive briefings for your leadership team and clients. For the full video, please visit our YouTube page: https://lnkd.in/dgGrwSc4 #MiddleEast #Ukraine #USPolicy #EUParliament #NavigatorPlus
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Sid Trivedi
During the RSA Conference, a #CISO shared with me how in a live final round interview with a candidate, he realized the candidate didn't look like the photo on his LinkedIn profile. Luckily he spotted this abnormality and started asking the candidate a few off-script questions. He quickly realized something was wrong and immediately ended the process. It was a scary story to learn about and it seems he isn't the only manager encountering this problem. According to a statement by the U.S. Department of Justice last week, more than 300 US companies have unknowingly hired foreign nationals with ties to North Korea for remote #IT work, sending $7M+ of revenue overseas. North Korea found a way to steal/borrow at least 60 US identities and use them multiple times to land jobs at US companies. Every sector is getting impacted - from a Silicon Valley tech company to an aerospace and defense company to a car manufacturer to a TV network. This scheme serves a dual purpose - to get revenue from the jobs (and evade harsh sanctions) and to get access to IT networks for future cybercrime operations. In this new world of #remote workers, #identity is critical. We need to find new ways to enable verification and reduce the risk of fraud. DOJ Statement: https://lnkd.in/gEYYKuX9.
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General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.)
5 June 2024: Key takeaways from this evening's Ukraine Update by the great team at the Institute for the Study of War: - US officials continue to attempt to clarify US policy regarding Ukraine's ability to strike a limited subset of Russian military targets within Russia with US-provided weapons, but public communications about US policy remain unclear. - Western-provided artillery ammunition has reportedly started arriving to Ukrainian forces on the frontline, although not at a scale that would allow Ukrainian forces to fully challenge the Russian military's current artillery shell advantage. - Russian missile and drone strikes have caused significant long-term damage to Ukraine's energy grid, and Ukraine will reportedly face even greater energy constraints in summer 2024. - Ukrainian outlet Liga reported on June 4 that a source in Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that there are roughly 550,000 Russian military and paramilitary personnel concentrated in occupied Ukraine and near the international border. - Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on June 4 that former Russian Defense Minister and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu will coordinate efforts to increase Russian defense industrial capacity. - The apparent demotion of former First Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council and United Russia Secretary Andrei Turchak on June 4 is likely part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing effort to remove from power the political and military figures that violated his trust in 2023. - A recent meeting of the Kremlin-appointed Russian Human Rights Council (HRC) on Russia's migration policy reflects Russia's competing imperatives of attracting migrants to offset Russian labor shortages while also catering to its ultranationalist anti-migrant constituency. - Chechen Republic Rosgvardia Head Adam Delimkhanov accused State Duma Deputy Chairman and New People Party Head Vladislav Davankov of contradicting the Russian Constitution and attempting to divide Russian society, exposing continued tension between Chechen efforts to operate autonomously and the Russian state’s efforts to regulate perceived Islamic extremist threats from migrant and indigenous Muslim communities. - Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom reportedly assesses that it is unlikely to recover gas sales it lost following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, illustrating how Western sanctions are achieving some long-term impacts against Russian revenue streams supporting Russia's war effort. - Russian investigative outlet the Insider and Moldovan outlet Little Country published an investigation on June 5 detailing how former Moldovan Chief of the General Staff Igor Gorgan operated as an agent on behalf of the Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate (GRU). Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, near Chasiv Yar, west of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City. #ukrainewar #linkedintopvoices
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H. Perry Boyle, Jr.
Food, energy, defense industries. If a superpower is dependent on its adversary for any of these, is it a superpower? This report indicates that the US defense industry has reduced its dependence on China. Except that isn't really what the data says. The data say there are a reduction in the number of Chinese suppliers. It doesn't say there is a reduction in the amount of Chinese content. More crucially, it doesn't answer the question of how many weapons systems can be made with no Chinese components. Probably because the answer is close to zero. So US defense policy is contrary to its national security interests. Likewise, US energy policy is contrary to its national security interests. We are sending hundreds of billions of dollars to China to make our energy grid more dependent on China. A nuclear power plant lasts up to 100 years. A wind turbine is good for maybe 20 years (at best). Solar panels, maybe 25 years. 70% of the US energy supply chain is from China. US education policy is contrary to its national interests. Not only do we fail to provide an education to millions of our children, but we provide an education to Chinese students--290,000 of them today--in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, drone technology, you name it. This is how the US loses WW3. We are willingly handing over the keys to the liberal world order to the new superpower that wants to take it down. Atlantic Council Council on Foreign Relations Center for a New American Security (CNAS) RAND The Brookings Institution Hudson Institute American Enterprise Institute Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) U.S. Department of State #foreignpolicy #nationalsecurity The White House Institute for the Study of War William Collins J. Scott Christian Matt Abrams The Merge DefenseScoop Defense Brief Defense News #foreignpolicy #nationalsecurity National Security Council, The White House The Fletcher School at Tufts University National Security Hub https://lnkd.in/gZEmCaWu
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Chris Cottorone
The recent greater coverage of how China has been distorting the meaning of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 needs to continue and spur greater discussion. Beijing's recent two-day People's Liberation Army military drills that many view as a test run of how to blockade and perhaps even invade the island is more than enough reason to highlight this critical component of Taiwan's - and America's - security. As officials at the German Marshall Fund of the United States as well in the diplomatic and legal fields have argued in their research and panel discussions, China's efforts to suggest that the resolution settles questions over Taiwan's sovereignty are aimed convincing the world that a possible attack on Taiwan is an internal domestic rather than an international concern. America should know better, since we at least understand the problems of getting involved in internal disputes yet at the same time have also long agreed to support the defense of Taiwan. U.S. President Joe Biden has not once but on four separate occasions said the U.S. would defend Taiwan in case of an attack by China. It'd be hard to imagine he does not see the problems of how China, and the UN for that matter, are portraying the UN Resolution 2758. The recent comments by the spokesman of the UN were frustrating to watch when they were asked about the recent developments. Beyond that, one comment by another spokesperson, this one from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is noteworthy, when they say: "Using Taiwan to contain China will only end in failure." The idea that an island the size of one of America's smaller states, with 24.6 million, being used to contain a 90-million member communist party that uses 1.4 billion as its own "Great Wall" indicates the inferiority complex the CCP has, as well as its problems with logic and perspective. It also shows the party knows the problems of its one-party system that is having an increasingly harder time holding on to power legitimately and as it tries to influence the rest of the world to support policies which are aimed at, ultimately, supporting the CCP's undemocratic hold on power. https://lnkd.in/gbBX8_AW
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General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.)
8 May 2024: Key takeaways from this evening's Ukraine Update from the great team at the Institute for the Study of War: - Russian forces conducted large-scale missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 7 to 8, continuing to exploit Ukraine's degraded air defense umbrella ahead of the arrival of US and Western security assistance at scale. - Recent satellite imagery of depleted Russian military vehicle and weapons storage facilities further indicates that Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and other weapons at scale. - Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian defense industrial base could support, nor will Russia be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these stores for many years. The Georgian State Security Service (SUS) is employing standard Kremlin information operations against Georgians protesting Georgia's Russian-style "foreign agents" bill following the lead of Georgian Dream party founder and former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili. - Armenia's efforts to distance itself from Russia are increasingly forcing the Kremlin to acknowledge issues in the bilateral relationship. - Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė stated that the Lithuanian government has granted permission for Lithuania to send troops to Ukraine for training missions in the future. - Reports indicate that there is an available open-source tool that allows people to search by specific coordinates for Telegram users who have enabled a certain location-sharing setting. - Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Kreminna, and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. - Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to highlight Russian formations involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. #ukrainewar #linkedintopvoices
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Sungsoo An
5/28/2024, Plainfield, NJ The First Cold War: Anglo-Russian Relations in the 19th Century Hardcover – August 1, 2024 by Barbara Emerson (Author) 391 pages Hurst Publishers $54.99 https://a.co/d/4KMQPdI 0. Prologue Barbara Emerson's "The First Cold War: Anglo-Russian Relations in the 19th Century" is a meticulously researched and insightful exploration of the complex and often adversarial relationship between Britain and Russia during the 19th century. The book offers a fresh perspective on the origins and dynamics of this "first cold war," challenging conventional narratives and shedding light on the enduring tensions between these two great powers. Emerson's central thesis is that the Anglo-Russian rivalry of the 19th century was not merely a clash of imperial ambitions but a deeper ideological and cultural conflict rooted in the contrasting worldviews and political systems of the two nations.[3] She argues that Britain's embrace of liberalism and constitutional monarchy clashed with Russia's autocratic and expansionist tendencies, setting the stage for a prolonged period of mutual suspicion and competition. The book is divided into several sections, each exploring a different facet of the Anglo-Russian relationship: 1. Historical Context: Emerson provides a comprehensive overview of the historical context, tracing the first encounters between Russia and England in the 16th century and the gradual emergence of tensions in the 18th century. 2. The Crimean War: This section offers a detailed analysis of the Crimean War (1853-1856), a pivotal event that crystallized the Anglo-Russian rivalry and set the stage for future conflicts. 3. The Great Game: Emerson delves into the "Great Game," the strategic competition between Britain and Russia for influence in Central Asia, highlighting the complex interplay of geopolitics, espionage, and cultural clashes. 4. Ideological Clash: The book explores the ideological dimensions of the Anglo-Russian conflict, contrasting Britain's embrace of liberalism and constitutionalism with Russia's autocratic and expansionist tendencies. 5. Cultural Perceptions: Emerson examines the cultural perceptions and stereotypes that shaped the views of each nation toward the other, revealing the deep-rooted prejudices and misunderstandings that fueled the conflict. Throughout the book, Emerson draws upon a wealth of primary sources, including diplomatic correspondence, memoirs, and contemporary accounts, providing a rich tapestry of perspectives and insights. Her analysis is nuanced and balanced, acknowledging the complexities and nuances of the Anglo-Russian relationship while also highlighting the enduring tensions and rivalries that defined this "first cold war." #The_First_Cold_War #PlainfieldNJ
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Piotr Stefanowski
Putin 'is done' as losses in Ukraine degrade Kremlin's force projection Putin's use of "human wave" tactics in Ukraine will expend the last of Russia's capabilities to project power, says Peter Zeihan, author of The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On, see it here updated for 2024 Kate Gerbeau (Times Radio) Q: Can you say a bit about the state of Russian forces ? At the moment figures obtained by the BBC and an independent Russian media outlet Media Zona said that more Russian fighters had died in the 10-month battle in Bahmut than in 10 year Afghan war. And the Ministry of Defense here in the UK has put the total number of Russian casualties since the start of the full scale invasion at more than half a million. How is Russia meeting these challenges of replacing its personnel ? Peter Zeihan : (..) Numbers about half a million are accurate. Russia had 8 million men in their 20s or at least that’s what they started the war with. If they’ve lost half a million now and a million have fled that still leaves them with six and a half million bodies to throw at this problem and to be perfectly blunt the Russians have yet to fully mobilize most of the people that they’ve brought in through their draft system have been minorities from ethnically from economically disadvantaged areas. They haven’t really gotten into the core of what the country is capable of. That’s still ahead of us but at this rate there’s no way the Russians can keep this up for another 8 years and I know that sounds like a long time. It is but remember two things: number one: Russians never fight short wars. They do short intimidations. Their wars are always long because they’re always about human waves. Number two: if they do this this is their last war because there aren’t enough Russians under age 20 to theoretically repopulate the system. So when this is done one way or another Russia is done.
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