Here is what net zero folks have not accomplished.
The Calculus of Carbon: Navigating the Math behind Decarbonization-Part II
1. The enormity of the task: is the monumental challenge of replacing four terawatts [trillion watts] of electricity generation capacity, encompassing large coal and gas-fired plants, & transitioning this to non-carbon sources globally. The need is to replace 700 exajoules of new non-carbon energy sources, equivalent to 122 billion barrels of oil [1 exajoule = 174 million barrels of oil].
2. Coal-based electricity production worldwide 2023 was 10,373 Terawatt hours [TW, a trillion watt hours]. Replacing this much power will likely take a lot longer if replaced by solar and wind, which only realize 20% to 35% of their capacities. Nuclear would have a realizable power of 95% or more.
3. Net zero carbon with require replacement of 1.5 billion combustion engines [gas and diesel] & the conversion of agricultural machinery [50 million tractors and 100 million irrigation pumps] to electric or non-fossil fuels.
4. It means finding new sources of heat, hot air, & hot water used in various industrial processes [from iron smelting to cement to glass making to chemical synthesis and food preservation, which now consume 30% of all fossil fuels.
And replacing 500 million natural gas furnaces currently heating homes & industrial, institutional, & commercial places w/ heat pumps & other heat sources.
6. Fleets. This means new ways to power 120,000 merchant fleet vessels (bulk carriers of ores, fertilizers, wood, & grain): container ships—which most run on heavy fuel oil or diesel. Also, 25,000 active jetliners need a new source of fuel.
7. 2.2 billion passenger vehicles need batteries/other forms of energy by 2050. Replacing 1.35 billion diesel and gas cars will require massive amounts of copper. Mining this copper necessitates a minimum of 150 million tons of new copper production.
8. Oil consumption in India & China, is rising. China imported 11.3 million barrels of oil [BOD] daily in 2023, up from 5 million BOD in 2011, which indicates fossil fuel use has yet to peak. https://lnkd.in/gE_mwmp8.
9. The timeline. This task cannot be accomplished in the next 25 years. We don't have peak oil, coal, or natural gas. By the end of 2022, only 2% of passenger vehicles were EVs [about 40 million globally].
Sources: Vaclav Smil, "Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Net Zero Carbon is a Highly Unlikely Outcome," which anaylizes the challenges and feasibility of achieving net zero carbon goals. Link: https://lnkd.in/gD8WisrB.
I started a LinkedIn Group named Electricity Generation Worldwide. Your fact-based contributions are welcome. Join here: https://lnkd.in/graRy4uz.