Jamie Mattikow

Another top-line miss: General Mills General Mills reported today its Q4 results: - Net sales were down 6.4% to $4.71 billion, reflecting unfavorable net price realization/mix and lower pound volume - Those results included a three-point headwind from a comparison against favorable trade expense timing in the prior year, which impacted net price realization and mix - Organic net sales were down 6% to miss the consensus estimate of -3.3%, and slowed from the FQ3 trend - The decline in organic sales was driven by the trade expense timing comparison, a reduction in retailer inventory, and a headwind in international segment results - Volume was 2% lower during the quarter, led by a 6% drop in the North America Retail segment and 7% decline in the Pet segment - Price/mix fell 4% during the quarter, driven lower by a 10% decline in the International segment General Mills expects now 2025 organic sales to be 0% to +1% vs. the consensus estimate of +1.2%. "As we move into fiscal 2025, our top priority is to accelerate our organic net sales growth, and specifically our volume growth, by delivering remarkable experiences across our portfolio of leading brands," stated CEO Jeff Harmening Time to refocus for all on organic (volume) growth Exciting times To read our last publication on how to accelerate organic (volume) growth: 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢𝘀: 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 (𝗩𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗲) 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗢𝗿 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗼 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗦𝗵𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗼 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗿𝘆 - 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗭𝗕𝗕 𝘁𝗼 𝗭𝗕𝗚® (𝗭𝗲𝗿𝗼-𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱-𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵) https://lnkd.in/eV5d39VE 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝘀 & 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: https://lnkd.in/ea4gy65y #fmcg #cpg Nestlé The Coca-Cola Company PepsiCo AB InBev Unilever Procter & Gamble Mondelēz International Kraft Heinz L'Oréal Danone The HEINEKEN Company Bel Reckitt Kenvue Sanofi Haleon Pernod Ricard Diageo General Mills Campbell's JDE Peet's Carlsberg Group Ferrero Henkel Mars Lindt & Sprüngli Kellanova Shiseido Bayer | Consumer Health https://lnkd.in/ehYwq5sR

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A double earnings/sales beat, raised guidance in many meaningful categories, and new product new news for CAVA makes for a great quarter. In fact, very few other brands--only a handful-- are doing as well. A new brand regarded as cool by guests and employees and the right kind of executive management and food has been evident for years now. The IPO seems to have supercharged attention and momentum. The discussion about the calendar adjusted SSS and traffic and the two year stacked SSS number warrants a note. While the 10Q P&L necessarily focuses on change from prior year, we are almost certainly wrong focusing on that number. We as an industry can and must spend more time on 2 year and even five year stacked numbers for better MD&A. CAVA did today. Their disclosure changed the tone. Thank you Brett Schulman.

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CPG Panel — “More than commerce”: 🔥 We are working on a mega panel (June 13) of CPG powerhouses right now including some of my great friends: Jamie Schwab (Colgate-Palmolive) Jamie Decker (Del Monte Foods, Inc.). We will be diving into the importance of driving direct-to-customer engagement through digital, not just commerce. Topics: (4) 1. First-party data strategies 2. Customer engagement 3. Omnichannel marketing 4. No doubt AI! We still have a few panelists spots remaining, feel free send me a DM or comment below if you may be interested or know some who would be great for this topic. #ecommerce #digital #omnichannel #strategy #cmo #cdo #ceo #cro #leadership #retailecommerceclub #cpg #privateequity #playtowin

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As Amazon seeks to narrow the gap with Walmart in the grocery sector, both retail giants are emphasizing their private-label brands to attract consumers. Walmart recently launched its largest private-brand food initiative in two decades, introducing budget-friendly, "chef-inspired" products. Meanwhile, despite scaling back its private-label offerings in other categories, Amazon is expanding its selection on grocery as a critical area for growth. With the battle for consumer loyalty intensifying, especially as shoppers adjust their habits in response to inflation, exploring the strategic moves of these two companies in this competitive space can offer valuable insights. Check out the full article to learn more about this ongoing rivalry between Amazon and Walmart in the grocery industry. Walmart and Amazon Expand Private Label Plays to Compete in Grocery https://bit.ly/4bt1c7i

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The US Beer industry landscape is changing fast. AB InBev's North America Normalized EBIT declined by over $1.3 B from 2022 to 2023. The volume market share decline (relative to Molson Coors Beverage Company and Constellation Brands) contributed to that EBIT decline by an amount of $400 Million. It has not helped that overall volumes between these three major players has declined by over 4%. It's a general sign of the headwinds facing the beer category as shopper and consumer preferences shift. For #ABInBev, that overall market decline cost them another $200M. A just less than 4% increase in Net Pricing contributed a +ve $560Million to the Normalized EBIT change, but was insufficient to mitigate the increased inflationary unit costs associated with Cost of Sales and the de-leveraging of other SG&A operating expenses. It will be interesting to track how these components of EBIT will change for 2024, given growth constraints associated with market share gains and price increase ceilings. Looks like some drastic OPEX cuts might be the only short-term remedy for now as AB InBev looks to rebuild brand equity and volume share. Send me a DM or write "send" in the comments section and I will forward you the document that also contains the related MVA operating breakdown for #MolsonCoors and #ConstellationBrands. It's interesting to see how and to what extent Molson Coors and Constellation Brands benefited from AB InBev's headwinds. You will also see why Constellation Brands might be the longer term winner here. #Beerindustry #beercategory #beerdistribution #Heineken #BeverageAlcohol #Asahi #Carlsberg #BostonBeer #beer #beverages #BudLight #MillerLite #CoorsLight #Corona #ModeloEspecial

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There was a moment in last week's Roundtable when Emily Flannery declared, "that's right: beverages are officially a snack, too." The way we see category lines blurring, overlapping and/or completely falling away is fascinating, and a huge opportunity for food & bev brands with the nerve to keep up. Did you see it yet? Give the convo a watch right here: https://okt.to/XpGrUZ And if this glimpse into the future inspires you, let's chat! #futurefluent #futureofsnacking #cpgtrends

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The Power of a Coach 🧠 Tim Johns <> The CPG View #ecommerce #digital #omnichannel #strategy #cmo #cdo #ceo #cro #leadership #retailecommerceclub #cpg #privateequity #playtowin #pattern #thecpgview

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Still strong results for NARTD (Soft Drinks) players with top & bottom line beat for both PepsiCo and Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Yet, that's not to say all is rosy, with all the growth being exclusively price driven with negative volumes across all the main categories. Trend that is driven by a weaker demand from lower-income consumers and that we do not expect to revert in the upcoming quarters To be monitored carefully at a time consumption patterns are increasingly diverging in most of the developed economies (US, Europe and beyond...) between lower-income consumers & the rest Specifically: Pepsico Q1 FY24 results summary: • NR: $18.3bn • OSG: 2.7%; Volume: -2%; Price/ mix: 5% • GM%: 54.8%; -43 bps vs Q1 FY23 • OP%: 16.1%; +40 bps vs Q1 FY23 • Beat analysts’ consensus for revenue as well as EPS Keurig Dr Pepper Q1 FY24 results summary: • NR: $ 3.47bn • OSG: 2.8%; Volume: -0.3%; Price/ mix: 3.1% • GM%: 56%; +393 bps vs Q1 FY23 • Adj. OP%: 23.8%; +300 bps vs Q1 FY23 Results by Division: • U.S. Refreshment Beverages o NR: $ 2,093m o OSG: 4.3% (Volume: -1.3%, Price/mix: 5.6%) o Adj.OP%: 29.7 %; +440bps vs Q1 2023 • U.S. Coffee o NR: $ 911m o OSG: -2.1% (Volume: -0.3%, Price/mix: -1.8%) o Adj.OP%: 31.7%; +110bps vs Q1 2023 • International o NR: $ 464m o OSG: 7.0% (Volume: 4.8%, Price/mix:2.2.6%) o Adj.OP%: 23.5%; +330bps vs Q1 2023 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝘀/ 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: 𝗵𝘁𝘁𝗽𝘀://𝗹𝗻𝗸𝗱.𝗶𝗻/𝗲𝗥𝟴𝘃𝗗𝗽𝘃𝗘 #strategy #cpg #fmcg Frederic Fernandez & Associates

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Chipotle Mexican Grill - Anamoly in this economy even with continued price increases and hardly any innovation (they once showed a spicy chocolate shake in one of their documents a long long time ago). Stock is +30% YTD and +60% past year....... comps +5%, transactions +3% and avg check +2% "Chipotle has become the rare restaurant chain to report rising transactions despite higher menu prices. The company once again raised its prices in October, citing inflation. Others in the restaurant industry have turned to limited-time offers and deals to appeal to customers, particularly those with lower incomes." https://lnkd.in/gXuVhgUn

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Aggregate demand across a multitude of manufacturing markets are directly impacted by the state of retail demand. This article/interview of former US CEO for Walmart is confirming details of an "inferior market" situation in the US that is already evident in key markets like automotive. Arguably, entire demand markets like electronics are taking hits as well. For manufacturers tied directly to GDP value chain demand, or in the case we find ourselves "True GDP Demand", finding better ways to assess their immediate and intermediate demand will be critical. Those late to the intersections of market dynamics will be behind. A recommendation: stop focusing on dollar based demand and dollar based activity! Unless your fixed costs can be managed with high variability, watching dollars movements inflated by government spending will not result in volume demand to spread out those fixed costs. Worse you will be carrying capacity for which there is no need. #USEconomy #Market #B2B #B2Bmanufacturing #macroeconomics #fractionalmangement #materials #chemicals #paper #packaging

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Over the past two decades, I've witnessed the pet distribution industry see significant consolidation, driven by mergers and acquisitions among key players. Large corporations and private equity firms have increasingly absorbed smaller, independent distributors, leading to the formation of expansive networks that can dominate market share. This trend towards conglomeration has been fueled by the desire to streamline operations, achieve economies of scale, and enhance bargaining power with manufacturers and retailers. As a result, a few major entities now control a substantial portion of the pet product supply chain, reshaping the competitive landscape and often leading to more standardized products and services across the industry. Here's another post about this similar occurrence, and it's happening worldwide across many sectors.

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Tequila!   Many large players such as White Claw, and The Boston Beer Company (maker of Truly) are expanding their offerings and releasing tequila-flavored ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktails as consumers are increasingly turning to tequila offerings in the beverage alcohol sector.   I had the opportunity to share my insights and thoughts on this surging trend with The Food Institute. In the article, I emphasized how innovations in ready-to-drink (RTD) formats, including tequila-based seltzers and margaritas, are meeting consumer demand for novel flavors. Additionally, I pointed out that tequila production has remained stable despite global supply chain disruptions and highlighted the increasing consumer preference for high-quality artisanal spirits.   Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gB9f-3Ci   #Tequila #BeverageIndustry #MarketTrends #ConsumerInsights #RTDCocktails

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🔍 New Insight: The Rise of Functional Foods 🍇🔬 The mid-market food and beverage manufacturing sector in the Northeast USA is embracing the booming trend of functional foods, offering consumers more than just basic nutrition. Here’s what’s happening: 💪 Health & Wellness Focus: Companies are increasingly incorporating functional ingredients like probiotics, antioxidants, and adaptogens into their products, meeting the rising consumer demand for health-boosting foods. 🧠 Brain-Boosting Innovations: Products designed to enhance cognitive function, improve mood, and support mental clarity are gaining popularity. From beverages infused with nootropics to snacks fortified with omega-3s, the market is expanding rapidly. 🌿 Natural & Organic Ingredients: There's a strong emphasis on using natural and organic ingredients to appeal to health-conscious consumers. This aligns with the broader trend of clean labeling and transparency in the food industry. 📈 Growth Opportunities: The functional food segment is experiencing significant growth, creating new opportunities for manufacturers to diversify their product lines and capture a larger share of the health and wellness market. This vibrant sector is not just following trends—it's setting them Get ready to see more innovative, health-enhancing products hitting the shelves soon. #FoodAndBeverage #FunctionalFoods #HealthAndWellness #Innovation #MidMarket #NortheastUSA #FutureOfFood #SupportLocal #EmergingStrategy

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The Adult Non-Alc space is fascinating. As it evolves I think we’ll see some stratification between the functional ingredient beverages and the alcoholic beverage analogs with no functional ingredients. I think the route to market and consumer demand segment will end up being very different for these two distinct categories. I think there’s a bright future for both. What do you think?

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Competing online requires a different set of capabilities, a strong customer experience, and a coordinated commitment across the firm's functional silos. As Mercatus Technologies Inc shares below, from Brick Meets Click's eMarket Share report, Walmart now captures more online share than the entire Supermarket format. Although Walmart overtook Supermarkets in 4Q22, it was in Supermarket's current position three years ago and vice versa. Knowing that is one thing and understanding how things has changed over that time is another. This is why I enjoy engaging with grocers on the topic as it's a great chance to build an mutual understanding for the competitive dynamics before focusing on building more sound strategies to help you compete against deep-pocket rivals. So, reach out to Mercatus Technologies Inc to request the report and get a more complete view of the eGrocery market in the U.S.

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There is real money to be made by going non-alcoholic. With more and more people making the choice to go alcohol free - at least some of the time - brands like Athletic Brewing Co. are cashing in. With sales exceeding $90MM last year, Athletic is now valued around $800MM and is one of the largest brewers in the country. This is a great lesson for all brands (established and emerging ones) to identify what are fads and what are actual trends. The latter are harder to identify, but are the ones you build real business around. In the weight loss arena, it will be interesting to see if Nestlé's Vital Pursuit will have success as it tries to appeal to the Ozempic user or will it just attract the same buyer as Lean Cuisine? Will Walmart find incremental growth for their upscale Better Goods brand as people look to save money with private label or will their same private label buyer just trade up from Great Value brands? What lessons have you learned trying to identify and capitalize on the next trend? #nonalcoholic #alcoholconsumption #consumertrends #ozempic #weightloss #frozenfoods #vitalpursuit #Athleticbrewing #nonalcoholicbeer #bettergoods #walmart #ozempic #wegovy #nestle

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My gut tells me, she wasn't pushed - rather, she jumped. With Canopy Growth ready to start "helping", she has enough money and enough other things she wants to do, and having to listen to CGC tell her what do, would just become unbearable. CGC is likely to start smashing the 3 companies together - try to find cost savings - look for RTM and internal transfer synergies. Of course, given the current regulations in the US, there is no across-state transfer of product, so real scale plays are not in play. And Canopy has proven they have the executional excellence and precision of a sledgehammer in an eye operation. No one wants to be around and see their life's work ripped to rat's shite. Wana and Jetty, are pretty small businesses in the grand scheme of the US cannabis market - both, it would seem, have used licensing as their expansion strategy, which begs the question as to who will control the trademark in those states going forward. And Acreage Holdings is a debt-ridden, money-losing shell that looks to be more of liability to the whole thing. It's going to cost a lot of money to make Canopy USA work and more importantly, real strategic acumen - CGC has neither. Just wait and watch - Canopy will screw this up - it's what they do.

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I'll be at 👉 (https://lnkd.in/geS8v3aq) the NielsenIQ C360 conference in Phoenix - May 13-16 as The CPG Guys. Will you be there as a senior leader to discuss today's important #cpgindustry topics? 1.) Total store optimization in a post pandemic world? 2.) What does today's truly #omnichannel shopper journey look like? Have #retailmedia networks changed full funnel #omnichannelmarketing? 3.) Of course, all about #artificalintelligence 4.) #innovation - most large brands temporarily slowed it down over the pandemic - now its back to the mayhem. Shelf space is not unlimited - who wins, who loses and who doesn't belong on the shelf in the first place. Watch Liz Buchanan (NA, president), Jamie Clarke (NA retail), Andrew Criezis (President, #ecommerce) and so much more.

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