Greg Lanham

Permian Basin: Center of E&P Activity #oil #gas #USA #energy #growth #boom #strategic #consolidation #texas #newmexico #production #expansion #services #ofs https://lnkd.in/gpUmGWNQ

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NatGas Short-Term Outlook Production: Low natgas prices are leading to a reduction in production in the US. Dry natgas production is expected to fall by 2% from Q1 '24 to Q2 '24, with June production averaging 102Bcf/d—down 4% from Dec' 23. This decline is due to producers announcing curtailments amid low prices and a significant price gap between natural gas and petroleum products, pushing producers to extract higher-value HGLs instead. Despite a projected 1% decrease in U.S. dry natgas production this year compared to last year, a 2% rise in '25 is expected, reaching nearly 105Bcf/d - record high. This increase is driven by a forecasted rise in natgas prices, incentivizing more drilling dry gas. Increased crude production will result in more associated natgas production. We also expect the gap between natural gas and petroleum prices to narrow in 2025, potentially keeping more HGLs in the gas stream. NatGas Consumption: For 24, U.S. natgas consumption is forecasted to remain unchanged from last year, averaging 89Bcf/d. Small increases in the Resi, Comm, and power sectors will be offset by a slight decline in the industrial sector. In May '24, natgas consumption is expected to average 72Bcf/d, 3% less than in May 23. This decrease reflects an anticipated reduction in natgas used for power gen due to cooler temperatures and increased RE generation. May typically sees lower natgas consumption in the U.S. due to reduced demand for HDDs and not yet increased CDDs. Following the Y/Y drop in May, we expect relatively flat consumption through '25. In the 2nd half of '24, natgas consumption is forecasted to average 88Bcf/d, 1% more than in the same period of '23. The Resi and Comm sectors are expected to see a 7% increase in consumption due to a forecasted colder Q4 '24 compared to the very mild Q4 '23, boosting HDDs. NatGas Consumption for Power: The growth in power gen from REs, particularly solar, in '24 compared to '23, is curbing natgas consumption beyond last year's levels. Despite a 3% increase in expected power gen this summer (May–Sep) compared to last summer, natgas consumption in the power sector is forecasted to remain similar to last summer, which recorded the highest power sector consumption. This summer, natgas-fired power gen will be driven by declines in coal-fired gene due to retirements and overall higher power gen from warmer-than-normal temperatures. Low natgas prices will also encourage the use of natgas-fired power plants. These factors will keep U.S. natgas consumption for power gen near last year's record levels. Looking ahead to the summer of 2025, the forecast is that natgas consumption for power gen will again average about 41Bcf/d, as trends of growing power demand, reduced coal-fired gen, and increased RE gen continue. There you have it. #powergenration #naturalgas #renewableenergy #shorttermnatgasforecast

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Navigating a new territory like New Mexico can be daunting. That's why we've created the Landman's Guide to New Mexico, giving you a complete overview of the state's oil & gas and regulatory landscape. #HELG #LandmansGuide #NewMexico

Reported Israeli retaliatory actions against Iran pushed oil prices higher in the overnight session, yet WTI is down 52 cents at $82/bbl this morning. Crude oil futures did not fluctuate much yesterday, with the benchmark crude contracts showing minimal changes between losses and gains. The May WTI contract increased by 4 cents to close at $82/bbl, while the June Brent contract declined by 18 cents to $87/bbl. Since Monday, prices have dropped by over 4%, marking the largest weekly decline since the beginning of February. In related developments, U.S. legislators are incorporating sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports into an upcoming Ukraine aid bill. These sanctions focus on any entities handling Iranian crude, including ships, ports, refineries, and transactions involving Chinese financial institutions and Iranian petroleum purchases. _______________________________ Follow Atlantic Petroleum for more energy updates. #fuel #oilandgas #wholesale #lubricant #diesel #TheAtlanticDifference

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09-May 2024 | review of price volatility & trading activity for crude oil, NGLs & olefins I am launching an ongoing review of trading activity for NGL markets in Mont Belvieu & olefins markets in TX and LA. Typically, I will post the review on Monday morning. I will also post commentary on important developments that occur unexpectedly. The weekly posts have an analytical focus on factors that influence short term trading including 1) aberrations in EIA's weekly statistics, 2) unexpected downtime in olefins plants, 3) weather related downtime, 4) geopolitical events (Houthi rebel attacks on shipping) and the impact of these activities on prices. Once a month (beginning today), the review of trading activity will highlight the previous month's price volatility index for crude oil, natural gas at Henry Hub, ethane, propane, non-TET normal butane, isobutane & natural gasoline. VIX (price volatility index) is a measure of day-to-day price change. VIX changes occur when unexpected events cause buyers and traders to scramble to cover positions. VIX is higher when short sellers are more active and is lower when short sellers are less active. When buyers and consumers are less active in physical commodity markets, traders (especially short sellers) become, by default more influential on a day-to-day basis. crude oil: daily price VIX in Apr for WTI (Magellan East Houston) was 1.22 v. 1.33 in Mar & 2.08 in Feb. VIX for dated Brent declined in April (1.46) v. 1.97 in Mar. Vix for Dubai fell to 1.04 in Apr v. 1.11 in Mar. VIX for Dubai was lower than WTI MEH and dated Brent for the 3rd consecutive month. purity ethane: VIX was slightly higher in Apr (2.0 v. 1.92); prices fell 2+% on 4 days & rose 2+% on 2 days. Daily price changes (+/- 2% or more) exceeded 2% on 3 of the last 5 trading days in Apr with 3 days -3% or more. Short selling & weak gas pricing will continue to influence ethane trading in May. propane: VIX fell to 1.59 v. 2.03 in Mar. Prices fell 2% or more on 4 days in Apr & prices had no "up" days of 2% or more. Prices declined 6 of the first 11 trading days & 6 of the last 11 trading days. Highlights for trading and price variability for non-TET normal butane & isobutane will be the topic of a follow up post. #PriceVolatility, #crude #ethane #propane

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Energy Market Update - April 19, 2024 In today’s dynamic energy market, here are the critical figures and trends impacting the industry: NYMEX Natural Gas Pricing: Today's Performance: Opened at $1.74, peaked at $1.80, dipped to $1.72, and currently stands at $1.75. Week-over-Week Gain: +$0.05 Year-over-Year Decline: -$0.50 Market Technicals: Current Pricing: Below the 50-day, 20-day, and 9-day averages, all at $1.75. Key Levels: Resistance starts at $1.79 and $1.87, with support beginning at $1.68 and $1.66. Basis and Export Insights: Basis Updates: Slight increases in PG&E and SoCal CG bases. LNG Exports: Reached 10.9 Bcf/D yesterday, highlighting robust export activity. Supply and Demand: Today’s Estimated Supply: 104.0 Bcf, with a 7-day average of 103.8 Bcf. Demand Projections: Today’s estimated demand is 93.7 Bcf, with a rising trend expected over the next week. Storage and Weather Forecast: Storage: Yesterday's injection exceeded forecasts at 50 Bcf, contributing to current levels that are 622 Bcf above the 5-year average. Weather Impact: Moderate to high demand expected due to chilly conditions across major regions in the next 6 days. Energy Prices and Market Outlook: Crude Oil: Currently at $82.78 with a downward trend projected. Renewable Energy Outlook: Wave energy is touted as a future key renewable source, with hydro levels expected to be 6% higher in 2024. Forward-Looking Statements: Pricing Strips: Summer prices range from $3.35 to $4.06, while winter prices are forecasted to be between $6.40 and $7.12. Market Sentiment: While the short-term outlook due to weather supports higher prices, fundamental indicators suggest a bearish trend remains dominant. This comprehensive overview provides actionable insights for industry stakeholders. Stay tuned for more updates and discussions on how these trends might evolve. #EnergyMarkets #NaturalGas #Commodities #MarketAnalysis #RenewableEnergy #ProfessionalNetworking

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#artificialintelligence and #powerdemand are taking the torch from #LNG as the most exciting and bullish theme for future natural gas demand growth. 65% (13 GW) of data center power demand today in the U.S. is coming from the southeast market (think Virginia and the Carolinas), due to proximity to the trans Atlantic cables, cooler climate and access to water (for cooling). This is on the doorstep of EQT’s world class asset base in Appalachia, and where Mountain Valley Pipeline delivers our supply into the heart of Virginia. But, this #AI growth requires access to reliable, affordable and clean power, which has to come from increased natural gas fired power generation. It’s hard to imagine a company better positioned to serve this demand growth and meet the needs of end users and customers than #EQT as already demonstrated through our record-setting physical supply deals with the largest utilities in this market announced late last year. Toby Z. Rice

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The WSJ Editorial Board writes, the FTC has accused Scott Sheffield, the former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Company Resources, of attempting to collude with OPEC to increase oil prices. They also approved a consent decree barring Sheffield from serving on ExxonMobil’s board following its acquisition of Pioneer. Such an unusual demand in merger reviews is especially troubling given the thin evidence on which the FTC bases its allegations. The complaint says Sheffield tried to coordinate output and prices with OPEC and US producers. The public statements the FTC cites don’t support its case. Take the claim Sheffield “threatened” other oil producers by saying in late 2021 that “everybody’s going to be disciplined, regardless of whether it’s $75 Brent, $80 Brent, or $100 Brent” and “all the shareholders that I’ve talked to said that if anybody goes back to growth, they will punish those companies.” This wasn’t a threat. Sheffield was analyzing the oil market, as execs are prone to do. He has a right to express his opinion, and in any case he lacked the power to punish competitors. Moreover, at the time Biden was demanding OPEC ramp up production to contain rising gasoline prices. Sheffield criticized Biden officials for trying “to slow down US drilling in any way they can,” including with a moratorium on leasing on federal lands and said that they would “rather import crude oil from OPEC.” All true. Sheffield wasn’t trying to suppress US oil production. Biden was, even as his Admin threatened antitrust action if oil and gas companies didn’t lower prices at the pump. Is Khan retaliating against Sheffield for criticizing the Admin’s policies? According to the FTC, Sheffield also showed “publicly-stated alignment” with OPEC by saying in 2023 that “I’ve followed OPEC closer than almost any CEO in the history of our industry.” So tracking competitors is now collusion? It’s true Sheffield and others lobbied regulators when oil prices plunged early in the pandemic to impose output restrictions on producers in the Permian basin. We criticized that idea at the time. But the quotas were never adopted and wouldn’t have affected global oil prices when Russia and the Saudis were flooding the market. Note, too, that Sheffield’s misbegotten efforts were intended to bolster the US shale industry so operators could survive to produce another day—a goal not shared by progressives who were cheering their demise. On the publicly available evidence, the FTC’s accusations against Sheffield lack merit. So they maligned him in a consent decree with Exxon, giving him no recourse to contest the charges. Someone also leaked to the press FTC plans to refer Sheffield to the DOJ for a potential criminal investigation, despite no evidence of illegality. The case is a nasty smear, and a new low for the FTC. But unchecked regulatory power—amplified and celebrated by a compliant media—inevitably becomes abusive. 🛢️⚖️ 👀 #oilandgas #shale

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Good analysis and summary!

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M&A chatter lately has it that inventory is scarce, the pool of potential U.S. shale targets are drying up and consolidation is slowing. But deal making may be poised to shift from the recent epicenter of M&A, the Permian Basin to the Bakken, Marcellus and elsewhere. Research firm Rystad Energy said $80 billion worth of North American assets remains on the market, with the U.S. shale sector expected to be the engine driving activity. Shale assets account for 66%, slightly more than $52 billion, of total assets on the market. Some potential deals up for grabs include Bakken-focused Grayson Mill Energy, Uinta-focused XcL Resources, Exxon Mobil's Bakken portfolio, EQT's remaining non-operated Marcellus portfolio and certain Haynesville assets from Shell and BP, Rystad said in an April 28 report. Globally, the first quarter saw the biggest dealmaking tab in five years as deal M&A value crossed the $64 billion threshold. By value, deals were up 145% compared to first-quarter 2023. The primary fuel for M&A: U.S. shale consolidation. For the remainder of the year, Rystad said the industry could see another $150 billion in M&A. “The Permian Basin has dominated recent dealmaking, but other shale plays look set to attract significant investments in the near future, with about $41 billion of non-Permian opportunities on the market,” Rystad said in an April 28 report. In some cases, deals already announced will spawn other deals. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum and Diamondback Energy are set to make divestitures that could “invigorate short-term M&A activity,” Rystad said. With significant recent acquisitions, the companies are planning to divest non-core assets, “paving the way for growth among regional upstream players,” Rystad said. Chevron, for instance, has plans to divest approximately $10 billion to $15 billion worth of assets by 2028. Occidental’s divestiture target ranges between $4.5 billion and $6 billion. “The Permian has been the focal point for M&A activity in recent times, but that focus is waning as available assets in the basin become scarce,” said Atul Raina, vice president of upstream research at Rystad. “But with appetite still strong, deal-hungry players are looking outside the basin for acquisitions. A power shift could be on the cards, with non-Permian assets taking center stage in the future North American deals pipeline.” Outside of the U.S., deal activity has remained strong in the first quarter of 2024, with $10.5 billion changing hands at a 5% year-on-year increase, Rystad reported. Upstream majors BP, Chevron, Shell and TotalEnergies collectively accounted for $5.2 billion in deals. Rystad said demand for gas-producing resources has been high, representing about 66% of total resources bought and sold in first quarter 2024. 

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ONEOK is buying a set of NGL pipelines for $280 million. The announcement says a lot about contemporary oil & gas strategy. Let’s start with the corporate speak: ====== "This strategic acquisition provides the quickest pipeline connectivity to and within the critical supply and demand centers for our NGLs, refined products and crude oil assets in the Gulf Coast," said Pierce H. Norton II, ONEOK president and chief executive officer. ====== The word “quickest” is incredibly important here. As I’ve remarked before, today’s oil & gas industry is all about time to value. Investors have no patience for future windfalls. The future is way too uncertain. They want to see value today, and often that value is from increased cash flows, a fraction of which go directly to shareholders. You can compare this path – buying existing assets – with the alternative of building your own new pipeline system. Building new systems can be expensive, slow (because of permitting and just general construction limitations), and risky. It’s much easier to buy something in place and integrate it in short order. That’s what ONEOK is committing to do. Another critically important part of the above quote is the mention of the Gulf Coast. Again, with uncertainty at unprecedented levels across the oil & gas landscape, investors prefer a geographical concentration in the most resilient areas of supply and demand. The Gulf Coast certainly qualifies. The Gulf Coast has existing infrastructure, access to land- and water-based distribution networks, and operational efficiencies that will allow it to remain competitive far longer than other, less favorable marketplaces. What then did we learn about contemporary oil & gas strategy from this ONEOK announcement? ➊ Moderate, tangible value today is worth much more than potentially larger, more speculative value in the future. ➋ The Gulf Coast should be one of the last regions to become stranded as decarbonization momentum builds. Investment there is preferred. ONEOK’s move here is showing us why “consolidation” is the name of the game in oil & gas today. #energy #oilandgas #ksg 𝘗.𝘚. 𝘈𝘵 𝘒𝘚𝘎, 𝘐 𝘩𝘦𝘭𝘱 𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘯𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘹 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘰𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴. 𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩, 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘨 & 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘴, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘤𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 & 𝘥𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘮𝘦 𝘢 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘦. 𝘐’𝘥 𝘭𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘶𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘧 𝘪𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘴 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘶𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦. https://lnkd.in/gtSQCFvt

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The One Minute Energy Update – 4-30-24) NYMEX Natural Gas and Market Indicators Today’s NYMEX natural gas pricing shows a slight downturn with the current price at $2.03 per MMBtu, marking a $0.15 decrease from last week and a significant $0.60 drop year-over-year. Historical data underscores a sharp contrast from previous years, with the monthly average in 2022 standing at $6.64 compared to $2.743 in 2023. Anticipating forward movements, NYMEX estimates for upcoming years suggest a gradual increase: $2.65 in 2024, $3.54 in 2025, and reaching $4.01 by 2026. Market Technicals Technical analysis indicates current resistance at the $2.06 and $2.10 levels, with a pivotal point at $2.02. Support begins lower at $1.98 and extends to $1.93. This setup comes as we observe a break above the 50-day, 20-day, and 9-day moving averages, which stand at $1.76, $1.78, and $1.79 respectively. Basis and Regional Gas Prices Both PG&E Citygate and Southern California Citygate basis prices have risen, driven by anticipated increases in demand. The 2023 first-of-the-month index shows PG&E at $9.83 and SoCal at $10.95, with SoCal Border averaging at $8.14. Production, Supply, and Demand Dynamics Today’s estimated gas supply totals 105.4Bcf, closely aligning with the recent average. Production estimates are set at 99.9Bcf against today’s demand of 96.2Bcf. The upcoming week’s forecast suggests a demand spike, moving above the norm for this season. LNG and Pipeline Flows LNG exports stand at 11.5Bcf, with exports to Mexico at 6.3Bcf and Canadian imports at 5.5Bcf. A year-on-year comparison highlights a 4.1Bcf/D decrease, marking the most significant annual drop since 2021. Storage and Weather Forecasts U.S. gas storage levels are currently 439Bcf above last year and 655Bcf over the five-year average, totaling 2,425Bcf. Weather patterns remain mild with bullish forecasts for the coming months, supporting higher natural gas prices moving forward. Energy Sector Trends and Renewable Energy Crude oil prices are on a downward trend with the current price at $82.65. Renewable energy contributions are notably impacting CO2 emissions, primarily through a shift from coal to natural gas and solar in the power sector, which saw a 7% emission reduction in 2023. Carbon Offsets and Fixed Price Offers Carbon offset opportunities are varied, ranging from $1 to $375 per unit, providing options for diverse carbon footprint mitigation needs. Indicative fixed prices for natural gas across different regions and periods have been provided, reflecting potential future pricing dynamics. Summary The energy market remains sensitive to weather forecasts, influencing NYMEX and basis prices. While short-term trading opportunities seem limited, the outlook for the latter part of the year suggests greater potential for market activity. #EnergyMarket #NaturalGas #NYMEX #RenewableEnergy

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US Department of Energy announced their efforts to replace the barrels of crude oil that it sold off in 2022 from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)(about 200 MMBbl prior to the November 2022 elections), ostensibly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Secretary Granholm claims that in the past year the DOE replaced 32.3 MMBbl at an average cost of $76.98 per barrel. However, the adminstration drew down the SPR during 2022 from 600 MMBbl at the start of the year to 367 MMBbl today (233 MMBbl remaining to replenish). Granholm claims that they are doing this for the taxpayers and now that crude oil prices are again below $79 per barrel they are looking to buy another 3 MMBbl. The DOE is sensitive to using taxpayer dollars wisely (no comment). At this pace of replacement, it will require another SEVEN years to reach the previous level of 600 MMBbl of reserves. Perhaps this seems acceptable. However, given that the US uses about 20 MMBbl each day, our current emergency reserves in the SPR amount to 18 days' of supply; at the start of 2022 it was a 30-day supply. If one assumes that the DOE purchased oil in equal volumes every day for the past year, they were buying 124,000 Bbl daily, or 0.6% of the daily amount used in the US. Secretary Granholm stated that they didn't want to disrupt the oil markets by being a large buyer. If the DOE were to truly intend to replenish the SPR within a reasonable goal of 18 months, it would require 425,000 Bbl of crude purchases per day; this is just over two percent of the daily usage in the US. That would have minimal impact on markets. Clearly, this DOE effort is strictly lip service to the US voting public and not a serious effort to replenish the SPR. Congress just agreed to send nearly $90 billion to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan in foreign aid. Does that make us more secure? Perhaps, in a different way it does. But, simply outright buying 233 MMBbl of crude oil at $80 per barrel today would cost $18 billion. It couldn't physically be delivered overnight, but we might sleep better knowing that our SPR will be there for us citizens, as intended, rather than being used for political purposes. It's all a matter of policy and priorities. https://lnkd.in/g2PfR52J

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After more than $230 billion worth of mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. oil and gas industry in 2023, the M&A momentum continued in the first half of 2024, too, with tens of billions of dollars worth of new deals announced so far this year. Last year, U.S. oil and gas exploration and production companies spent as much as $234 billion on M&As—the highest such spend in real dollar terms since 2012, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in an analysis in March. The deal-making of the past year marks a return to the consolidation trend from before 2020, the EIA noted. Between 2020 and 2022, heightened market volatility and uncertainties in demand and supply led to a decline in transactions.  Now deals are being announced almost every week, since ExxonMobil and Chevron announced in October 2023 their respective deals worth over $50 billion each. Since the end of 2022, the U.S. upstream sector has been announcing more deals in terms of value compared to the international upstream industry, according to data from Enverus M&A Analytics cited by Reuters on Monday. The record so far in the U.S. upstream dealmaking was in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a total of $144.3 billion of transaction value announced. This included Exxon and Chevron’s mega-deals. This year, the latest merger in the U.S. oil and gas industry was announced at the end of May when ConocoPhillips said it had agreed to buy Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal with an enterprise value of $22.5 billion, inclusive of $5.4 billion of net debt.  The merger wave is far from over, many market observers say. The deal value so far this year has already surpassed the total deal value of $69 billion recorded for the entire first half of 2023, Atul Raina, Vice President of Upstream M&A Research at Rystad Energy, wrote in an analysis at the end of May. “Overall, North America is expected to continue driving this future M&A activity, with opportunities worth nearly $80 billion on the market, including nearly $41 billion worth of non-Permian shale opportunities,” Raina said days before the ConocoPhillips-Marathon Oil deal was announced. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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WTI Oil Prices Continue to Fall Due to Concerns Over Voluntary OPEC+ Cuts The price of West Texas Intermediate, which is a benchmark for U.S. oil prices, has dropped by almost 2% after experiencing a more than 3% decline to reach its lowest level in almost four months on Monday. This drop comes as investors worry about a complex decision made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+). The decision, made on Sunday, leaves room for gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts. While the Saudi-led cartel chose to extend most of its production cuts until next year, it also agreed to allow eight members to gradually increase their production starting in October. Analysts believe that this agreement puts downward pressure on oil prices, as it gives OPEC+ members flexibility to raise output depending on market conditions.

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🎙 I witnessed something incredible today while watching a Webinar presented by a client of mine... #trust 💡While listening to the presentation it was incredible to hear how Ambyint has contributed to Chord Energy's focus on enhanced operational efficiency and scalability. 💡 The most impactful moment for me was hearing how Ambyint's reliable #AI and Automated Setpoint Management (#APSM) equips Chord's operations team to run the majority of their 2,500 rod lift wells autonomously. Running thousands of assets autonomously demands #trust! 💥 It's impressive to work with a company that has #reliably harnessed #artificial #intelligence to tackle complex physics and #automate pumping continuously throughout operating conditions. In addition to improved efficiency, Ambyint's solution #increased #production volumes and #reduced #failure frequency. 💥 Deploying Ambyint's trusted solution is a no-brainer for companies operating #plunger or #rod lift wells. #maturefields #rodlift #plungerlift #automation #productionoptimization #failurereduction #artificialintelligence #itsanobrainer If you missed the webinar a recording will be made available here https://lnkd.in/gV5aJQCT

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Gelber Gas Daily (+ crude!) #NaturalGas -- Gelber & Associates Forecasts 76 Bcf Injection Into Storage for Week Ended May 24th: NYMEX natural gas futures are down -$0.15, last trading at $2.67/MMBtu. This morning, ConocoPhillips announced a $17 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil Corp. Dealmakers say the acquisition enhances ConocoPhillips' presence in key domestic shale regions and adds international reserves, marking another significant consolidation in upstream as producers position around expectations of sustained oil and gas demand. This acquisition is distinct in its focus on cost-cutting in mature shale fields, in comparison to others largely aimed at securing future drilling locations. Despite being smaller than acquisitions by Exxon and Chevron in late 2023, the deal could still attract scrutiny from the FTC over antitrust concerns. Speaking of Chevron, Hess shareholders approved its landmark $53 billion merger with the oil giant yesterday, despite an ongoing arbitration dispute with ExxonMobil over oil fields in Guyana. For the week ended May 24th, Gelber & Associates is forecasting a 76 Bcf injection into natural gas storage. This would bring US gas stocks to 2787 Bcf, narrowing the storage surplus for the fifth consecutive week. The five-year average injection for this time of year would be 104 Bcf, with last year's injection measured at 106 Bcf. The supply-demand balance was tighter than seasonal norms for the week, due to the higher temperatures primarily in the South Central which spurred an increase in power burn. As a result, most estimates ranged within a tight 75-85 Bcf range for the week, with analysts highly confident that the storage surplus to the 5-year average would continue to decrease. #Crude -- Crude Sees Limited Support From Sustained Middle East Risk Amid Rate Cut Worries: Crude oil futures are down -$0.56, last trading at $79.29/bbl. Crude extended this week’s rally up to the $80 level in the afternoon yesterday, managing to stay above it overnight before reverting back below it this morning. Crude prices remain somewhat supported by the bullish factor of heightened tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas (and most recently, Egypt). Offsetting this are movements in equities which reflect reduced hopes of rate cuts as expectations continue to be pushed back further out into the year. Prices in federal funds futures confirm that investors perceive the chances of rate cuts in September’s meeting being lower than they were last week or a month ago. #ConocoPhillips #MarathonOilCorporation #Marathon #Exxon #Chevron #Oilandgas #Commodities #NYMEX #HenryHub #Trading #Hedging #Gelber #markets #LNG #OPEC #oil #EIA #gas #gelber #WTI #Energy

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The One Minute Energy Update for May 17, 2024 #NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisDownHard #SoCalBasisDownFurther #WeatherWeakening #CarbonOffsets NYMEX Pricing Today: Open: $2.48 High: $2.61 Low: $2.48 Current: $2.58 Market Trends: NYMEX prices have increased by $0.45 from a week ago but are $0.05 lower than last year. NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates: 2024: $2.87 2025: $3.51 2026: $3.95 Monthly Averages: 2024: $1.98 2023: $2.73 2022: $6.64 2021: $3.84 Price Averages and Resistance Levels: Above the 50-day ($1.88), 20-day ($2.09), and 9-day ($2.34) averages. Resistance: $2.58/$2.67 Pivot: $2.48 Support: $2.39/$2.30 Basis Updates: Significant drops in PG&E CG Basis and SoCal Basis daily spot and day-ahead prices. Monthly Indices: PG&E CG First of the Month Index: 2023 average $9.83, 2024 average $3.51 SoCal CG First of the Month Index: 2023 average $10.95, 2024 average $3.29 SoCal Border First of the Month Index: 2023 average $8.14, 2024 average $2.65 Exports and Imports: LNG Exports: 12.6Bcf Mexico Exports: 6.8Bcf Canadian Imports: 5.3Bcf Supply and Demand: Today's Estimated Supply: 104.5Bcf (7-day average: 103.2Bcf) Today's Estimated Production: 99.1Bcf Today's Estimated Demand: 94.5Bcf (7-day average: 95.9Bcf) Rig Count: Next report later today. Last week: Total active rigs: 603 (Oil: 496, Natural Gas: 103, Misc: 4) Down 128 active rigs from last year. Storage: Currently 421Bcf above last year, 620Bcf above 5-year average. Current Storage: 2,633Bcf (above 5-year historical range). Projected Storage: October 2024: 3.90Tcf March 2025: 1.70Tcf Next week's storage report projection: 83Bcf injection. Weather: Severe weather impact in Houston, TX, with power outages for over 1 million residents. Forecasts: 5-10 days: Split 10-15 days: Bearish 3 months: Bullish Summer (July – Sep): Bullish Crude Oil: Current price: $79.25 Forward Estimates: 2024: $77.70 2025: $73.47 2026: $69.81 California Retail Power: CAISO pricing: Just over $27 per MWH Carbon Offsets: Offerings range from $1 to $375 per unit. Bottom Line: NYMEX prices are rising. California Basis is weakening. Competitive prices are available, but summer deals may be disappearing.

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